New Hampshire U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 54 Days Until Election Day

 

New Hampshire U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

If Democrats are to have any chance of winning control of the Senate this year, they absolutely must hold New Hampshire. A setback here would be an epic political catastrophe and in a state that seems poised to once again elect a Republican Governor, things are currently looking pretty close. However, the Live Free or Die State is a place that has tended to favor Democrats in federal elections.

 

As she approaches her 80th birthday, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is stepping aside. She has served in the Senate since 2009 and has spent most of her adult life in politics. Before her election to the Senate, in her second try, she had spent six years as Governor between 1997 and 2003. Her most recent reelection wound up being easy in 2020 but some of Shaheen's votes in recent years upset the progressive base of her party and many were happy to see her go. Despite this, her daughter Stefany, won a crowded primary this past Tuesday, in which she ran to the left of her closest competitor, and now seems on track to be the next Shaheen to join Congress next year, once her mother retires.

 

When Shaheen made her retirement announcement last April, party insiders immediately looked towards Congressman Chris Pappas. He is looking to become the first male Democrat elected to the Senate from New Hampshire over 50 years as well as the first openly gay male nationwide to serve in the Senate. Pappas solidly won one of the two's Congressional districts in a 2018 open race. His race in 2020 was a bit closer, but he had less difficulty in '22 and '24, the former being a win over future White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

 

Pappas became the heavily favored frontrunner for his party but in the latter stages of the primary, some attention went to Karishma Manzur, a Bangladesh born medical scientist and party activist. She ran to the left of Pappas and seemed to have some momentum during a cycle where several left-wing candidates have won primary upsets. While few expected Pappas to actually lose, there was much interest in how low of a vote percentage he might slip to. While some prominent liberals endorsed Manzur, Pappas touted among others, the support of 1988 Presidential nominee and his fellow New England Greek, Michael Dukakis. On Tuesday, Pappas won on Tuesday 65-33, perhaps exceeding expectations by a bit. 

 

For Republicans in this open race, hopes immediately turned to Chris Sununu.The son of a former Governor, Sununu won the Governorship in 2016, even as other Democrats were carrying New Hampshire. He was reelected and remained popular every two years until not seeking another term in 2024. During this time, Sununu had already resisted attempts to get him to run for U.S. Senate or for President. At times he went much further than most Republicans in criticizing Donald Trump, but would also go on television and offer some excuses as well and he seemed to be trying to have it both ways. The former Governor would have made a formidable candidate and many Republicans nationwide were disappointed when he once again took a pass.

However, before Chris Sununu, there was John Sununu, the elder namesake of their politician father. At age 62. a decade older than his now more famous brother, John is attempting to become one of the rare people in American history to make a return to the U.S. Senate after having lost his seat. This would also seemingly mark the longest time between stints. In 1996, Sununu was elected to the U.S. House and served for three terms. Then in 2002, with the private support of the Bush White House (back when a President opposing an incumbent of his own party was quite rare), he knocked off an incumbent Republican Senator in a primary. It turned out to be a good cycle for Republicans and he won by four points over then Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Six years later, the election of 2008 turned out to be far worse for Republicans. Shaheen won a rematch by 7 points and has served since. Sununu turned down an attempt to make it a best of three in 2014 and seemed content to continue life in the private sector, but he ran again in 2026. A State Senator who had been running decided to endorse the former U.S. Senator.

 

Sununu would not have the Republican field to himself however. While most of the candidates were little known figures or perennial political losers, his main opponent happened to be another former United States Senator. There was a period of time in early 2010 when Scott Brown was the biggest political story in the country. Coming from a dysfunctional youth, Brown had an interesting life story as an Army National Guard veteran and one time scantily clad magazine pinup model, who became a Republican State Senator in Massachusetts. The father of an American Idol semifinalist who was also a prominent girls' basketball player in the state, Brown shocked the world when he won a special election to fill the seat of the late Ted Kennedy in the U.S. Senate. This came as a huge boost to Republicans nationally when they badly needed a win and the telegenic Brown, a moderate, was seen as perhaps a future President in some quarters.

 

Brown had won over a flawed Democrat campaigner though in that special election and in 2012 when he sought a full term, Massachusetts reverted to its political norm and he lost his seat to Elizabeth Warren by eight points. He went to do some work for Fox News and openly flirted with a future Presidential run, but he also had a vacation home in neighboring New Hampshire. Rather than attempting to make a quick political comeback in Massachusetts, Brown backed up his ambitions and took full-time residence in New Hampshire. In 2014, a strong year for Republicans, he took about half of the total vote in a crowded primary for a Senate seat and then came within three points of beating incumbent Senator Shaheen. Despite continuing to reside in New Hampshire, Brown tried to claim a state pension in Massachusetts. To the surprise of many, considering his past moderate and establishment ties, he became a relatively early endorser of Donald Trump in 2016, went on to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa and started dying his hair darker. (John Sununu has less hair than he did back in his earlier political career.)  In 2022, Brown's wife Gayle Huff Brown, a longtime television news figure in Boston came in third place in a Republican primary in the race Karoline Leavitt won before she lost in November to Pappas.

 

By the time Scott Brown entered another race for Senate in 2026, he was considered a political has-been who had no real chance to win a race in New Hampshire. Republican leaders, while not able to get Chris Sununu to run, were able to get John Sununu (the younger) to do so and were also able to get Donald Trump to issue an endorsement. This was an interesting development, considering Chris Sununu had at times been critical of Trump and had actively campaigned in his state for Nikki Haley in her 2024 run against him. More so, Scott Brown had been a more vocal Trump supporter and was one of the Ambassadors he nominated. Brown stayed in the race and claimed he was the true conservative alternative, but the Trump endorsement was a big boost to Sununu, who welcomed it in terms of the primary, but also tried to not even acknowledge it much as it was seen as a hindrance in a general election. Sununu the even more distant in time former Senator, won an eight way primary, defeating the other former Senator he never got to serve with 68-27. Bob Smith, the one time mercurial New Hampshire Republican Senator, who lost a primary to Sununu in 2002 and who also lost in a 2014 primary to Brown, backed Brown in this race. I guess that makes sense.

 

The general election is now set and it features a matchup that has been anticipated for months. The polls throughout have seemed close. I wonder how many non-political junkies have some confusion and think Sununu is his younger brother, the recent Governor they liked, instead of the politician who last ran a race and lost 18 years ago. At least one television report on this race, used the wrong Sununu in a photo. I think I made a joke or two about Tito Jackson trying to appeal to Michael Jackson fans. To be fair, Pappas also shares a name with Chris Sununu, their first name. Maybe there is just a lot of confusion there.

 

Conventional wisdom has been that Pappas is a strong young candidate who will have the edge in this state this year. I happen to agree, but one has to look at the most current polls and recognize this race is close. A couple of them are showing a virtual dead heat and that has a lot of Republicans looking for any bit of good news this cycle excited. I think that there are some backers of Pappas's more left-wing primary opponent who will have to come to terms with supporting the more establishment choice. I keep honing in on the factor of base Democrats being very down on any current sitting member of the U.S House this cycle. Another feature of this race, even if it might only matter for a point or two, is that a frequent Independent candidate popular with libertarians and others on the right is on the ballot again this year after some legal wrangling. The vote for that businessman, Aaron Day, likely cost a Republican incumbent, who is now Governor, her Senate seat in 2016.

 

Just having a Sununu on the ballot is probably a big positive for Republicans, but it is not the one who might really have a chance here. I think that if Pappas does not make any major missteps, this race is probably still his to lose. It may be a competitive single digit contest, but in this particular cycle, I think any Republican would be hard pressed to flip a Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump has always lost general elections in to begin with.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 8 D  (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

42 D (34 holdover, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)