Democracy 2024: # 33

Here is an impressive fact for this baseball season. Donald Trump is now under indictment in every city in the National League East. That is except for Philadelphia. If they tried hard enough, they could probably come up something. After all, he did declare fraud in Pennsylvania as well. There are still a lot of things Trump can do to be put before a Judge in the City of Brotherly Love, if dominating the entire NL East is important to him.

It seems to me that this was not a very good week for either major party frontrunner. Yet, by this time next week, there will be other topics dominating the news. They are likely to be the first Republican debate on Wednesday night in Milwaukee, which is not expected to include Trump. The next day, he is said to be planning to surrender himself at the Atlanta Jail to face what he has now been charged with in Georgia. Many other Trump associates, some well-known, some virtually unknown will be doing the same next week. Unlike Trump's other arrests, this one might very well include a mugshot and a perp walk.Will there be handcuffs involved? Probably not. Trump will of course raise money off this mugshot and will speak frequently about how horrible (which may be accurate) the Atlanta jail is and how that is the fault of Democrats. The people who have been rallying to his side will continue to do so. It would have been especially interesting if Trump turned himself in during primetime hours while the debate was taking place on the Fox News Channel. It would have overshadowed the event. Instead, he has taped an interview with lackey Tucker Carlson which will be airing on the internet while the debate takes place. Then, the next day, he will dominate the news coverage of course. I have been saying for months that Trump will not take place in at least the first debate. Politically, he had nothing to gain by doing so, but it will certainly hurt his fragile ego to be absent while others (or maybe just one person) is highly critical of him.

Now, let us briefly look at the incumbent President, who in many ways, continues to seem to be a supporting player this summer in the Trump drama. One thing that really stuck out to me from several days ago was how Biden deliberately gave a "no comment"when departing for the Delaware beach when asked by the press to speak to the horrific devastation that has taken place due to wildfires on the island of Maui in Hawa'ii. This is indeed one of the worst and most serious disasters ever to occur in the country, with over 100 dead, and Biden had nothing to say at that moment? Is not being compassionate in times of tragedy his entire brand? If he did not hear the question, I am at a complete loss to understand why he could not even put together three or four sentences of solace to the country on the matter. I was similarly critical of Trump when he was President and was given a "softball" in the White House Briefing Room about people who were afraid during the worst time of the pandemic and he used that opportunity to blame them for being afraid.

I am completely putting past the optics of Biden going on a beach excursion at the same time so many dead bodies were on another beach. That is besides the point. There is nothing he can make better by staying home but he passed up a golden opportunity to act as President and the White House in response to that moment, reacted in a predictably defensive and dismissive way. Later on in the week, Biden had some brief words about Maui while giving a policy speech and he and the First Lady are planning to visit, which they have not done in East Palestine, Ohio.

If he did not hear the question, they should admit that. If he needs a hearing aid, that is not the worst thing in the world either. Something seemed very odd about the incident. I am one of the people who have consistently dismissed outlandish claims that Biden has dementia or is senile. I do not believe he is afflicted in that way. However, he has over the past couple of weeks seemed more off his game in public than usual. I can only surmise the drama surrounding his son Hunter's legal troubles are having an effect. Even friendly media outlets are admitting that the President seems to have a "blind spot" in regards to the actions of his son. This sort of distraction is not good for any President to have. In the meantime, Republicans continue to push stories that sound extremely explosive on the surface, but still without direct evidence. The latest involves Biden as Vice President sending emails from a government account under a fake name and how that might have helped enrich Hunter in his foreign business dealings. I will say again, that there is not yet any evidence that Joe Biden personally attempted to make money for himself or commit any crimes, but he sure seemed to be ok with the concept of Hunter doing what he had to do, even if it was unethical or even illegal to make money off of the Biden name. That is not a quality one should want in a President and Biden should have to face many questions about this. However, when one's likely opponent is Donald Trump, issues of ethics and morality somehow seem to go off the table. Republicans this primary season should recognize that. They might also recall that Trump liked to use aliases himself to talk Donald Trump up to the press.

So, Trump and I believe 18 others were charged this week by Atlanta District Attorney Fani Willis after a very long investigation. She basically threw the kitchen sink at them, with all sorts of RICO charges. This came on a day after there was an embarrassing leak of a draft indictment posted by the courthouse online. That should never have happened, but the Grand Jury charging Trump and others was pretty much a formality at this point. The next most prominent defendant is Rudy Giuliani, once the most popular man in America, who first made a name for himself as a prosecutor charging mobsters with the same type of charges he now faces. Giuliani is reportedly in serious financial debt and has been begging for Trump to foot his legal bills. Do not count on that Rudy.

Willis spoke briefly, and very loudly, at a press conference near midnight after the indictments because unsealed. She said she wants to charge all of the defendants together and do it all within the next six months. There is little chance of any of that happening, although there is a strong likelihood this will be the one Trump trial that will be televised.

There are so many angles to this. Did Willis charge him because she is a partisan Democrat and has political motivations or ambitions? Yes, probably. That happens to politicians of all stripes when they break the law. Clearly, there is evidence that Trump and others did illegal actions in trying to subvert the will of Georgia voters after the 2020 election. Shouldn't these be federal charges though? Jack Smith is already charging Trump on that level with very similar things (although nobody else as of yet.) Personally, my feelings are mixed on that. I think Trump opponent Chris Christie makes some decent points by pointing out the charges against Trump himself are redundant and unnecessary to an extent when he has already been charged by the federal government in Washington D.C. Still though, he did specially try to screw Georgians and conservatives like myself are supposed to support the concept of the sovereignty of the 50 states. (I do not think his actions in regards to trying to hide his affair with the porn star in New York had a specific impact on the voters.)

The Trump legal saga (including civil suits) will continue to play out for years in Atlanta and other NL East cities. So many of the January 6 rioters have already been sentenced to time behind bars due to their loyalty to Trump and now many political types are facing the same fate, at least in Georgia. How many of them will flip on him? There is still a lot of speculation about Mark Meadows,who is actively trying to get his Georgia charges moved into federal court. The former White House Chief of Staff has not been charged by Smith but has been by Willis. Is he cooperating with the Feds?

Of course, one has to consider that any federal conviction is subject to a pardon or commutation by a President of the United States. Trump is trying to regain that job for himself. In New York or Georgia criminal cases, those powers would not apply. In fact, Georgia has very specific laws that make a pardon very remote. That definitely has to be considered to be one of the reasons why he has been charged there.

As mentioned, Wednesday night is the big Republican debate which will feature most, but not all, of the party's Presidential candidates. I will offer full American Idol recap style analysis next week. There are pros to cons for these candidates in Trump (himself a future con) not being onstage. The ratings will probably be much less than they would be otherwise, but it will be an opportunity for folks to introduce themselves to viewers who are among the Republican primary voters who are willing to consider anyone other than Trump. There will clearly be a lot of pressure on Ron DeSantis whom I expect will have center podium position. Next to him, is likely to be Vivek Ramaswamy who has undoubtedly been rising in state and national polls, to the detriment of DeSantis. This was another embarrassing week for the political campaign of the Florida Governor. It has been said that he has virtually outsourced his campaign strategy to his SuperPAC, which under law is not allowed to communicate directly with the actual campaign. Thus,they had to post a lengthy strategy memo online and needless to say, it was discovered by the media.

In this memo, DeSantis is being told to go after Ramaswamy, using Trump like nicknames for him, and also attack Chris Christie,when Christie attacks Trump. While DeSantis will say that Trump is "too weak" to show up to defend himself on the debate stage, he will basically be calling for the other candidates to leave Trump alone.This sounds like the wrong strategy and is compounded by the fact that it all got leaked out. So, either DeSantis has to ignore the key aspects of it or look like a fool and use the prepared talking points the SuperPAC has written for him. You can be certain that Ramaswamy and Christie are well-prepared now that they have been given advance notice of the plan of attack against them.

 

Despite the apparent plan to go soft on Trump while on stage, a controversy is brewing today after DeSantis in an interview appeared to refer to some Trump supporters as "listless vessels" who simply follow whatever he says on Truth Social. I have to say that Ron sort of got that one completely right. It also brings up another nugget from this past week. On Truth Social, Trump promised to a hold a big post-indictment event on Monday to provide irrefutable evidence that he was correct all along that the race was stolen in Georgia. Georgia's Republican Governor Brian Kemp issued a pretty strong statement reaffirming that Trump was wrong and the 2020 election in Georgia was legitimate. Nonetheless, Trump's attorneys warned their client that whatever he was going to say at his golf course press conference could one day (perhaps sooner than later) help land him behind bars so now the press conference is off!

 

Looking ahead, I think Republican "focus groups"are going to say they are impressed by Tim Scott, who is likely to try the nice guy and avoid any mention of Trump. Some other things to look out for is just how critical of Trump his former Vice President Mike Pence will be. There is apparently also a good chance that gadfly Perry Johnson has qualified for the stage and will be there. Except some nuttiness to ensue.

At this point, it looks unlikely that Will Hurd or Asa Hutchinson will be on the stage. I think that is unfortunate in a way, but it does leave Chris Christie a lane to himself. Of the three candidates I am somehow torn between, Hutchinson is the most conservative, and Hurd has been the most consistent in opposing Trumpism over the years. However, Christie, despite being as responsible for the mainstreaming of Trump than anyone else in the once GOP, has changed direction and is likely to be most formidable and effective of the anti-Trump voices. Thus, I will be rooting him on Wednesday evening, while trying to put aside the fact that he should have gone after Trump in debates eight years ago.

On a final note, Hurricane Hilary is headed to the Pacific Coast and wreak significant damage in Southern California. This would be a very rare West Coast hurricane. I hope everyone in the path stays safe.

I also cannot pass up the opportunity to point out that any Hurricane named Hilary or Hillary will definitely stay away from Michigan and Wisconsin.