New Jersey U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 53 Days Until Election Day

 

New Jersey U.S. Senate

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

On this 25th anniversary of the most tragic and historically substantive day in American history, we can all feel grateful that we have the opportunity and the freedom to discuss electoral politics in the same sort of way that Americans have throughout the generations. For any of us above a certain age, the events of that day are seared into our memory. It is hard to believe that a full quarter of a century has passed and that sort of milestone makes those memories and emotions even tougher to dwell on this year. America has endured though and we have been nothing short of lucky to not have experienced anything close to the level of that day since. Nonetheless, we must never forget.

 

It just so happens that I will be discussing New Jersey today, a state that certainly lost many of its citizens on 9/11/01 and felt the full weight in a way that perhaps only neighboring New York could claim. It is also a state that last year had a high profile race for Governor that appeared to be competitive, after a stronger than expected Republican showing in 2024, but ultimately produced a very solid win for the Democrat, cementing the state's image as being quite blue. There is probably some political hangover in the Garden State this year at least in terms of the one statewide race, which does not seem to hold much drama.

 

Many though will be looking at what Senator Cory Booker intends to do after this election. Recently married for the first time, the incumbent is probably more focused on building on his national profile than a race back at home. Booker first came to political prominence as the Mayor of Newark, where he had a penchant to make headlines. He set his eyes on the United States Senate and likely scared the elderly incumbent Democrat out of another campaign. When that Senator passed away, Booker won a special election to replace him, although the first African-American Senator in New Jersey history became to be seen as a polarizing figure statewide. The next year though, Booker easily won a full term and then a 2020 reelection. 

 

Before that most recent Senate win, Booker ran for President in the 2020 cycle and initially was thought of as one of the leading candidates. A gifted speaker, the Senator reminded a lot of people of Barack Obama, and spoke of how he hoped to be a unifying figure and the "politics of love." Primary voters looking to unseat Donald Trump were not really into buying that though, and candidates to Booker's left received more support and others, such as Joe Biden, looked to be more electable for those who had that concern. After falling behind in the polls and not qualifying for the main debates, Booker suspended his Presidential campaign before the first votes were cast.

 

Running for a third full Senate term, Booker is being opposed by Republican attorney Justin Murphy, who about 25 years ago was the Deputy Mayor of Tabernacle Township.  Since then, he lost a couple of U.S. House primaries and in 2024 finished in a distant third place in a Republican Senate primary. This year though, in a primary that did receive much attention, Murphy benefited from being seen as the most conservative candidate in a party increasingly dominated in primaries by MAGA supporters. In June, Murphy took 33 while three other opponents all took double digits. The second place contender was State Trooper, Iraq War venteran and recently defeated Assembly candidate Richard Tabor, an African-American who took 29 percent. In third place was the candidate thought to be the strongest potential challenger to Booker, although that might not have been saying much in this field. Former local tv news reporter Alex Zdan won 27 percent. He had run for but dropped out of the 2024 Republican Senate contest. None of these candidates were seen as even being on par with some recent New Jersey Senate nominees, who did not come that close to winning. The Murphy (who is not related to the Murphy who just finished up last year as New Jersey's Democrat Governor) campaign does not appear to be substantial financially in any way and he seems well to the right of where most New Jersey voters are.

 

Once Booker wins another term, there is perhaps some possibility that he is interested in replacing Chuck Schumer of New York as his party's leader. A ton of Democrats want Schumer gone from that role, even if he helps them capture a majority, but that message may not have gotten through to the current leader. Booker made a ton of headlines in 2025 when he took part in the longest Senate speech in history, railing against the Trump Administration. Exact details about how he handled a need to go to the bathroom were not directly addressed, perhaps for the best. This did a lot to put Booker back in the good graces of party activists who might have somewhat forgotten about him since his Presidential run.  Another issue though is that Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen is someone who is openly plotting a bid for Leader (although he says he might possibly run for President in 2028), and a lot of progressive activists seem to like the idea of Van Hollen as Leader, (but probably not for President.)

 

So, there is a chance that Booker might run for President himself again. If as expected there is a large field, it might make sense. There will definitely be a lane for a black candidate to consolidate support leading into the first contest in South Carolina. Right now, the only other African-American possibilities for Democrats seem to Kamala Harris and Maryland Governor Wes Moore. Booker has recently increased his television appearances and has taken some steps to try to break away from his long-standing strong support of Israel, which is more politically problematic for Democrats these days. Like so many mainstream Democrats on that issue, Booker will have to adjust his positions and his rhetoric if Israel happens to turn aside (as I hope happens) Benjamin Netanyahu before the 2028 Presidential primaries.

 

Right now though as he contemplates his next moves, Booker has few worries at home.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

 9 D  (4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

13 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

43 D (34 holdover, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

44 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)