New York Governor- Race of the Day
49 Days Until Election Day
New York Governor
So much of our politics nationally over the past decade has focused on the Empire State. While it is still one of the largest population centers of the country, it had seemed to fall in influence towards the end of the 20th Century. Today though, so many national leaders are New Yorkers, including the person in the Oval Office, even though he has formally decamped to Florida.
Democrats have won the last five elections for Governor in New York, many by very wide margins.The 2022 contest turned out to be closer than expected though, with the sitting Governor, who had yet to be elected to the post in her own right taking 53 percent of the vote. Two years later, Donald Trump took 43 percent, after not having won more than 38 percent in his previous runs. That was not nearly enough to win, but the Republican made substantial gains among minority voters in the state, especially in the New York City area. Those might be related to cultural issues, concerns over the financial costs of mass immigration during the Biden years, or fear of crime. It looked like there was the beginnings of realignment among voter groups who were not traditional Republicans. All that means that the election for Governor this year will probably not be a total blowout, and it could even wind up closer than some expect now, but the nature of this race being in a difficult midterm environment for Trump's party, with a lot of his first-time voters perhaps still unsatisfied with the national status quo, should have the Democrat in position to continue the streak.
Kathy Hochul, once briefly a somewhat moderate Democrat Congresswoman from western New York, took the oath of office as Governor in 2021, the first woman in the state to do so. For the previous six and a half years, she had been Lt. Governor under the nationally prominent Andrew Cuomo and had been elected twice on a ticket with him. While serving in his third term though, Cuomo, once thought of a serious Presidential hopeful, saw his political career implode on a variety of fronts, especially related to sexual harassment and alleged assault of women. He would eventually resign under great protest, and that made Hochul the Governor. By that time, the two had basically not spoke in some time, and she went into office without much preparation. The theme of a New York Governor and Lt. Governor, who always happen to be of the same party and are usually elected together, not getting along has become a persistent theme in New York politics, especially amongst a male and a female.
With the power of incumbency, Hochul easily won a 2022 primary, in which she was challenged from both her left and her right and then survived in a difficult political environment for Democrats. As a statewide candidate, in a party dominated by the New York City metropolitan area, Hochul had moved a good deal to the left herself. In 2025, the political heat was on the Governor as Democrats competed for Mayor of New York City and the leading candidate was a controversial very left-wing candidate named Zohran Mamdani, who captured the party's nomination. For all the issues surrounding the young candidate's experience and views, he wound up facing none other than Andrew Cuomo, who continued to run as an Independent after losing the primary. Hochul initially tried to stay out of the fray, but came to endorse Mamdani, the nominee of her party, even as many Democrats supported the former Governor or remained officially neutral. Hochul seemed to do this as a way to blunt a potential primary challenge from Mamdani's ardent supporters. In any event, he wound up being a strong campaigner for the most part and Cuomo seemed well past his prime, and New York City moved considerably to the left. There is certainly something to be said there about the internal politics of NYC, as Mamdani has succeeded in influencing primaries this year. Republicans have hoped that her endorsement of Mamdani and his presence as a big-time openly socialist officeholder will have a negative effect on Hochul's reelection effort. While it is certainly true that the Mayor (justifiably so) generates much heat from a lot of traditional Democrat groups in the city, his poll numbers, at least thus far, are fairly decent.
For a time, Hochul was facing a primary challenge. While many prominent Democrats stayed out, she happened to be challenged by her own Lt. Governor, whom she personally selected to run with her in 2022. Such a thing is fairly unprecedented in politics. In fact, Antonio Delgado, an Afro Latino Congressman, when selected, was already Hochul's second Lt. Governor. For about seven months, the vacant spot had been held by the man she selected, also an African-American. Brian Benjamin, resigned after being indicted on federal wire fraud and bribery charges, which were later dropped by the government. Once in office though, Hochul and Delgado had a falling out, which seems quite common in Albany. Delgado, the first Latino to hold statewide office, announced he would not run for Lt. Governor again. Hochul basically said, that was fine, she was looking for someone else to run with anyway. Then, Delgado announced a primary challenge, and was seen as to the left of the Governor. Had she not endorsed Mamdani, there might have been a concerted effort to defeat her. Mamandi though did not endorse her, likely out of payback to Hochul, and after he failed to win the endorsement of a liberal third party, Delgado ended his challenge and the Governor was on her way to officially to November.
In New York, candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor are nominated on a ticket together. Both candidates had geography in mind for starters. Shortly before he ended his bid, the New York City area resident Delgado had picked India Walton, an openly socialist African-American woman. In 2021, she had defeated the incumbent Mayor of Buffalo in a Democrat primary before that African-American incumbent defeated her as a write-in during the general election. Hochul, from the Buffalo area, also picked an African-American runningmate once again, in this case, a fellow woman. The party's current nominee for Lt. Governor is Adrienne Adams who last year ended three years as Speaker of the New York City Council. Last year, she was among the several Democrats who ran for Mayor, and was eliminated in the primary. The Mayor of New York, also an African-American man named Adams, bypassed the primary, and tried to run as an Independent before ending his reelection bid. NYC politics sure were crazy last year and are likely to remain that way.
The Republican contest for Governor also produced a nominee without the need for a June primary contest, but the build up to it was of course interesting and dominated in many ways by Donald Trump. For one thing, Lee Zeldin, the Jewish-American former Congressman who had run a credible race for Governor against Hochul four years ago might have seemed like a strong contender for the party again, but Trump tapped him to lead the EPA, taking him off the New York political scene. Congressman Mike Lawler, a very ambitious member from a swing district on Long Island, with a penchant for many, many television interviews, was definitely interested in running for Governor, but Trump posted on Truth Social that Lawler was needed to stay in the House, so that effectively killed his nascent statewide candidacy. Lawler is currently running for reelection and will be extremely lucky to win this year.
When he made his move on Lawler, Trump seemed to favor the candidacy of Congresswoman Elise Stefanik from Upstate. He definitely owed her. Once a mainstream Republican, who was considered moderate on many issues, Stefanik had a massive political transformation to become an outspoken MAGA warrior. After his 2024 victory, Trump picked her to be U.N. Ambassador. The confirmation process dragged on for months though and Trump eventually pulled her nomination because one of his male Administration figures, who had gotten into some ethical trouble, needed a soft landing and the U.N. looked like the right place. At the time Trump also said he did not want to lose her vote in Congress, while also all but conceding that her strongly red district might be competitive in a general election.
The stage seemed set for Stefanik to run for Governor in 2026 though and she was all but announced and planning to run hard against Hochul by tying her to the socialist Mamdani. Trump, who had been calling the new Mayor a Communist for months while Mamdani was calling Trump a "fascist" (and let us face it they are both correct) then went to the Oval Office for a high profile meeting. In a politically shocking turn of events, Trump seemed somewhat smitten by Mamdani and his political starpower during a photo-op. He made comments saying that Mamdani would basically do just fine as Mayor and suddenly the MAGA narrative about him in advance for the 2026 Gubernatorial race was vanished. One can hardly imagine the reaction that Stefanik must have been having watching this unfold. Very quickly after she said she would not run for Governor and would not seek reelection to Congress either. The mother of a young child was stepping back from politics and elected office. Serves her right. "Thank you, Mr. President."
Even before screwing over Stefanik, Trump had equivocated on her candidacy, saying that while he liked her, he also was fond of another contender. Like 2022 nominee Zeldin, Bruce Blakeman is a Jewish Republican from Long Island. In 2021, Blakeman defeated a Democrat incumbent to become Nassau County executive. This was not an unsubstantial political victory and he was easily reelected in 2025. Before that Blakeman had a long history in New York politics, where he had developed a relationship with Trump. (His ex-wife is married to Paul McCartney which probably also impresses Trump.) Back in 1998, Blakeman lost by a wide margin as the GOP nominee for State Comptroller and the next year even lost his seat in the county legislature. He rebounded as an attorney and political appointee under a Republican Governor and in 2010 finished a distant third in a three way Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat. That November, he stayed on the ballot as the nominee of the Tax Revolt Party and won a grand total of 4,522 votes statewide, solidifying a last place finish. In 2014, Blakeman lost an open U.S. House race by six points.
All of this shows that Bruce Blakeman has not exactly been a winner in New York politics, so it is somewhat amazing he has had recent success in Nassau County, a once solidly GOP area, that had trended heavily towards Democrats. The fact that Republicans have been making a comeback there is a sign of dissatisfaction with Democrats from New York City to Albany. This factor makes Blakeman a reasonably credible nominee for Governor, as he is about to turn 71. One can even make the case that Blakeman, who might currently have a more moderate profile than Stefanik and comes from a more politically competitive area, is at least a slightly stronger general election candidate. Not having to compete in an expensive primary was also a benefit. To join his ticket, Blakeman selected Madison County Sheriff Todd Hood. Very few people in the state have probably ever heard of him, but he would fit along with a tough on crime political narrative.
Blakeman claims the race against Hochul is competitive. Some Republican sanctioned polls sort of back that up. I am more skeptical and it is not because Hochul is any sort of amazing political talent. Perhaps finding it difficult to run on economic matters, with voters blaming the Trump Administration, Blakeman seems to be be joining other Republicans in pushing in on cultural issues. He recently attacked Hochul for wearing a head covering at a Muslim cultural center. Somehow, I do not think he would have made as big of a deal if she wore a head covering at an Orthodox Jewish synagogue. There clearly is a concerted effort on behalf of Republicans nationwide, and including New York, to be very critical of Muslim political influence, both in the wake of the anniversary of 9/11, and with the Muslim (and virulently anti-Israel Mamdani, who has a wife who expressed glee online about the October 7 attacks) as Mayor of New York City. After the June primary, when a more left-wing Jewish Democrat defeated a Jewish incumbent in a race when Israel had been an issue, the Gubernatorial candidate compared the Jewish Congressional nominee to a Nazi collaborator. Blakeman, who would have once been considered a moderate east coast Republican, has made several comments since becoming nominee that seems to reach into the anti-immigrant territory and even controversial theories about racial "replacement." Despite being the clear underdog in this race, Blakeman has been saying that if he loses it will be because Democrats "cheated" or "stole" the election.
For whatever reason, Blakeman seems to be trying to appeal more to an audience of one, a guy who cannot even vote in New York anymore (which has nothing to do with his having been convicted of a felony there a couple years ago) than to New York swing voters. Still though, politics are so polarized he will get a significant chunk of the vote regardless. A mainstream challenger to Hochul and the status quo in New York would have an opportunity in this race.. well, maybe not quite as much in this particular cycle.
While some online MAGA types seem insistent that Hochul is in serious political trouble, I think that when the dust settles, she will have won a second full term by at least 10 points.
posted by Corey @ Tuesday, September 15, 2026
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