Oklahoma Governor- Race of the Day

44 Days Until Election Day

Oklahoma Governor

Status: Republican Open 

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

In 2018, Republican Kevin Stitt surpassed more well-known Republican candidates in a Gubernatorial primary and beat an establishment favorite in the runoff to be on his way to being elected in one of the nation's most strongly red states. As one of just two people of Native American ancestry, both from Oklahoma, to become Governor Stitt won as an outsider businessman in the mold of Donald Trump. For a time in 2022, he was thought to be vulnerable to a strong Democrat opponent but still won by 13 points. Now that Stitt is leaving office with term limits, he is definitely not considered a Trump favorite.  While generally aligned on major issues, they have clashed on some matters, and lately the Governor has been among those around the country who hold the office to call for more bipartisan cooperation and civility. He might perhaps be someone to watch if he decides to become a very long-shot Presidential contender.

 

With the Governorship open, in a state in which he has never even lost a county in any of his three runs, Trump has played a large role in the Republican nomination process. Current Lt. Governor Matt Pinnell surprised many by saying he would not run for this or any other office in 2026. Other prominent Republican names did enter the field including Chip Keating, the former state Secretary of Public Safety, whose father was once Governor and was nearly picked to be George W. Bush's running-mate in 2000. He was endorsed by Governor Stitt. Charles McCall, who had just finished up eight years as Speaker of the House also ran, as did former State Senator Jake Merrick. The frontrunner though was considered to be Gentner Drummond, Oklahoma's Attorney General, who had cultivated an image as a MAGA champion.

Trump surprised a ton of people in the Sooner State and around Republican circles nationwide though, when he endorsed a different, more longshot candidate. Nobody is quite sure why he eschewed Drummond or picked someone at all, but there has been speculation that Mike Mazzei, who had wrapped up a tenure as a State Senator a decade ago, and who later served as Secretary of the Budget, relationship as a client of Roger Stone played a part. The extremely controversial Stone, who was pardoned by Donald Trump, is one of Trump's oldest political advisors and with Mazzei as a client, could have somehow convinced the President to go out on a limb here. Mazzei's last race was for State Treasurer in 2022 and he had dropped out before the Republican primary. The Tulsa businessman was considered somewhat of a longshot in the crowded 2026 Gubernatorial field, although he had backing from some ideological conservatives.

 

In June, Trump's endorsement helped Mazzei get into a runoff, if nothing else. Drummond was narrowly ahead of the field with 26 percent with Mazzei just behind him. Keating took 19, Merrick 15, and McCall 12, A runoff was set for late August and questions emerged as to if Mazzei could defeat Drummond then, even with Trump's support, and if he might possibly have general election problems if he did. In this round, outgoing Governor Stitt also endorsed Mazzei, after having frequently clashed with Attorney General Drummond. Other Trump associates, including new DHS Secretary and recent Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin also endorsed Mazzei, Still, it turned out to be a 50-50 race with Mazzei only taking the runoff by a couple thousand votes. He definitely owes his nomination and potential Governorship to Trump, but Oklahoma Republicans proved that there will still some who were not prepared to march in lockstep with a Truth Social post. After the bitter runoff primary, Drummond has yet to issue a formal endorsement of the winner,

 

Democrats have a credible candidate for this office, but they also thought that four years ago, when they nominated a woman who had won statewide office as a Republican and then changed parties. This time, the nominee is Cyndi Munson, the State House Minority Leader. In the primary, Munson easily defeated two opponents 75 percent. That included Connie Johnson, an African-American former State Senator and member of the Democratic Socialists of America. She had lost in a blowout as the party's U.S. Senate nominee in 2014 and also Gubernatorial primaries in 2018 and 2022. In this race, Johnson took just 22 percent even as another racial minority female DSA member won the U.S. Senate nomination.

 

Munson, at age 41, is twenty years younger than her opponent Mazzei. The biracial daughter of a South Korean immigrant mother she might be running in the right cycle against the right opponent in terms of a chance to make things look somewhat competitive. Mazzei is still not that well-known, barely won his party's nomination, and has some ethical issues from his past. It seems odd that being a client of Roger Stone was the one qualification that catapulted him into contention. Nonetheless, Oklahoma is just very, very Republican. There do not look to be much in the way of polling data to gauge whether a massive upset is in anyway in play.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

15 D  (2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

10 R  (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

21 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

18 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)