Ohio Governor- Race of the Day

46 Days Until Election Day

Ohio Governor

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

The Buckeye State was once the most prized of all swing political areas. Then, it took a large turn towards the Republican Party and very must lost that status. This year though, Democrats are of the belief they can replicate what they did 20 years ago, if not by landslide margins, but by the ultimate results of winning some extremely high-profile races.

 

Outgoing Republican Governor Mike DeWine is wrapping up a career in politics that began 50 years ago. It has had periods of ups and downs and restarts, but as he is term-limited after eight years in Columbus, DeWine is leaving behind a party that has changed much and might not have a whole lot of use for him anymore. DeWine and his predecessor John Kasich, who also served eight years, are relics of a Republican past that is harder to recognize in the Trump era. The current Governor has had to make allowances to support the current President and other members of his party, but it is clear he was never really comfortable in doing so. He certainly cannot feel too good about the person who has been chosen by Republicans to succeed him, although he did issue a perfunctory endorsement once that outcome became clear.

 

In the political history of the United States, no person who identifies with a religion other than Christianity or Judaism has ever been elected Governor. The same can be said for the U.S. Senate, with the exception of one currently serving Buddhist from Hawai'i. This year Abudl El-Sayed a Muslim Democrat from Michigan is running for Senate and Vivek Ramaswamy a Hindu Republican is the nominee for Governor of Ohio.  Both men are young and have never held elective office. Both are also clearly quite intelligent and have the capacity to speak forcefully and persuasively. Both also are going to make it harder for their party to win races they should find easier to win because both have serious policy and character flaws. One day, a Muslim or a Hindu will be elected to high office and that will be a great thing for America of course. Will that person be someone with the personality or baggage of either of the candidates running this fall? Time will tell, but I have my doubts.

Sticking entirely now to the Ohio race, Ramaswamy was not someone well-known when 2023 began but he launched a longshot bid for the Republican Presidential nomination. Somehow, he managed to get all sorts of attention and perhaps even most amazingly did not piss off Donald Trump. That leads me at least to question if he was perhaps in that race to run political interference for Trump all along. Ramaswamy only finished fourth in the Iowa caucuses and quickly endorsed Trump, but he definitely made a name for himself among MAGA acolytes.

 

Still just 41 years old, Ramaswamy grew up in Ohio as the son of Indian immigrants, and who in the case of his father has not gone on to become a citizen. This is somewhat ironic of course because many on the right that the candidate appeals to believes that such a person, even as a natural born American citizen, should not be allowed to hold office. At Yale Law School, Ramaswamy was friendly with his fellow Cincinnati area student JD Vance, now obviously the Vice President. As a young man, Ramaswamy was at times a liberal and supporter of the Libertarian Party. Mostly though, he did not vote, and skipped casting a ballot between the years 2004 and 2020. By the time he became politically ambitious though, he had earned a lot of money by founding and running a pharmaceutical company and an investment firm. He went on to write some books that attracted notice in conservative circles, especially one in which he criticized "wokeness" and from that exposure he launched a Presidential bid, got into debates, attacked Republicans like Nikki Haley (a fellow Indian-American whom he pointed out did not use her given first name) , pleased his supporters, and largely angered many in the party who were not supporters.

 

Trump seemed to have a thing for the guy though and in the general election, Ramaswamy supported him, setting aside the rhetoric he had previously used about generational change. After the election, Trump picked Ramaswamy to go to Washington D.C. and join Elon Musk in leading the new "Department of Government Efficency." DOGE made all sorts of headlines although most of the political heat centered on Musk, the world' richest man, and also one of the most eccentric. I theorized that Musk probably should have felt insulted that Ramaswamy was considered even on the same level, because whatever one might think of Musk, he did have more substantial accomplishments in his life. Before long though, Vivek was on his way back to Ohio, where he had his eyes on the Governorship and Musk had the DOGE spotlight to himself, which did not exactly work out very well for anyone involved.

 
Trump was quick to endorse Ramaswamy for Governor giving him a huge leg up on anyone else who might want to become Governor. Many feared that the candidate could find a general election far more difficult than other Ohio Republicans had over the past several cycles. Slightly before that though, the Lt. Governor, Jon Husted had been planning to run to succeed DeWine, and had run for the job before joining that ticket in 2018, but he seemed to see the writing on the wall about how difficult a primary against Ramaswamy could be. Husted accepted an appointment by the Governor to go to the U.S. Senate and succeed JD Vance. That would involve running for the Senate this year and he is currently engaged in a tighly contested battle to win a full term. Before announcing for Governor, Ramaswamy seemed to definitely want Trump to get DeWine to name him to fill the Vance vacancy and many on the right were excited about the prospect. Husted got the job instead though, and that freed up the Governorship for a Ramaswamy campaign and Husted had a free path to a general election for Senate.

 

Other Republicans wanted to run for Governor, but eventually decided that taking on Trump's choice, and his money, would not be a great idea. The new Lt. Governor Jim Tressel, best known in the state as a college football head coach, was one of them. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who had run for Senate two years earlier decided he would take a political step down and run for State Auditor instead. The musical chairs of statewide Republicans continued as two candidates who were in the race before Ramaswamy got out in deference to him. State Treasurer Robert Sprague is running for Secretary of State instead and Attorney General Dave Yost, who tried to hang on in the race for a couple of months, left also and has since even resigned his statewide post.

 

In the May primary, Ramaswamy took 82 percent against Casey Putsch an automotive entrepreneur who ran a thinly veiled white nationalist campaign against his Indian-American Hindu opponent. Before the primary, candidates for Governor select their Lt. Governor runningmates, and Ramaswamy extended an olive branch to the political establishment in the state by selecting State Senate President Rob McColley, who is only a few months older than the 41 year old Gubernatorial nominee.

 

A Democrat was last elected Governor of Ohio in 2006 and many in the party could be forgiven for having lost a lot of optimism about statewide prospects. The last Democrat to win statewide for anything was Senator Sherrod Brown when he was reelected in 2018. He lost though as well, narrowly, in 2024, during the Presidential election with Trump at the top of the ticket. The biggest question was if Brown, now age 73, would attempt a political comeback. Many wanted him to run for Governor, thinking that he would be strongest path for him and the party, but he is now running for Senate once again and will take on the appointed Husted. That will be covered in the next edition of Race of the Day.

 

With Brown off the scene for Governor and into the race for Senate, that might have opened up a path for former Congressman Tim Ryan, a blue collar Democrat who represented an area during 20 years in Congress that swung heavily to Trump. Long speculated to run statewide, Brown launched a brief, longshot bid for President in the 2020 cycle. In 2022, Ryan was nominated for U.S. Senate and lost to Vance by six points. That was perhaps not a horrible showing during the Biden midterm cycle, but definitely a sign as to just how Republican Ohio had become. Ryan might have had his choice of running for whatever office Brown did not seek this year, but decided not to run for anything.

 

Now, with their top two options not running for Governor, the party quickly coalesced behind a third one, who did not face a primary challenge. A physician and researcher, Amy Acton is a Jewish-American who did not grow up in the suburbs like Ramaswamy, but from more hardscrabble Youngstown where she had at times a difficult childhood. Like her current opponent, Acton has never held office, but was appointed by Republican Governor DeWine to lead the state Health Department. She was there when the Covid pandemic took hold and like many other state and local bureaucrats around the country, became a familiar name and face to people at the time who were looking for information. Of course, the restrictions set in place were highly controversial in a lot of places and Acton started to receive threats. While she was popular among Democrats, she clashed with Republican leaders in the state and eventually resigned the post. She considered running for Senate in 2022, but passed on that and was running for Governor this cycle, even before Tim Ryan made his final decision. Her selected runningmate is David Pepper a former Hamilton County Commissioner who ran unsuccessfully for statewide office in the 2010. In 2014, he lost in a landslide to then Attorney General DeWine for that office. Later, Pepper took on the somewhat thankless task of chairing Ohio Democrats, before leaving in 2020. Another part of his past is that he was robbed at gunpoint and kidnapped around 2002.

 

A couple of weeks ago, Acton was the apparent target of an armed man when she was charged at during a political event. She was unhurt although several people were injured. Ramaswamy denounced the political violence, although some on the right predictably tried to claim it was all a staged event.The alleged assailant happens to be the brother of a former Republican political operative who had given large sums of money to Ramaswamy and others in the party. The brother of the attacker had recently resigned from a volunteer role after it was discovered he had a past arrest for child sexual abuse and Acton had raised this during the campaign. 

 

With polls showing Acton extremely competitive against Ramaswamy, there have been some pretty brutal ads on the airwaves against her. In 2019, when she was Ohio's Health Director, her daughter had called 911 to say that her mother was acting erratically after drinking and taking prescription medication and had to be talked out of attempting to drive. Decades earlier, Acton had also disclosed having received treatment for childhood trauma. Acton and her husband have tried to downplay the 2019 incident, in which they seemed to admit to having been arguing, but also saying she has never had a substance abuse problem, which is what all the Ramaswamy ads are claiming. There is no question that these ads have the potential to be powerful but there does not seem to be any great shift in the polls over the past several months, as the race has looked like a dead heat for a long time. Perhaps, voters are just not that interested this year or in this era about candidates' personal lives.

 

Ohio is definitely a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats so Ramaswamy should have an edge. This is a tough year though for Republicans in a lot of places, and many in Ohio who voted for Trump because of economic concerns or because they were told Haitian immigrants in one of their cities were "eating the dogs and eating the cats" (something DeWine had always pushed back against) might be disappointed by the past two years. Ramaswamy is someone who is seen as pretty much down the line a Trump supporter. He also has his own political narrative problems of maybe just not being the most likeable guy around. This seemed clear during his High School valedictorian speech where the teenager was speaking in the haughty tones he has continued to use and on the YouTube video, students and faculty look pretty openly annoyed by him.

Vivek has also made a lot of statements that just might offend a lot of "average Americans." He has claimed that companies hire foreign workers because American culture leads to folks basically being lazy or not as educated. In some ways, he might intellectually have a point about why Asian-Americans have proven to be so successful in the United States, but it is politically tone deaf if nothing else. I will say that I have to give Ramaswamy some credit because I recently came across a clip of him condemning antitsemitism by saying that many people were basically jealous of Jewish success in America (and around the world historically) and that these achievement levels are deserved because of focus placed on education and hard world. In that regard, there is similarity to what he has said about Asian-Americans, and including his fellow Indian-Americans. On some level this is ironic though, because Ramaswamy is someone who has openly tried to court so many on the fringe right, by leaning into 9/11 Truther conspiracy theories for example. It seems like as a general election candidate, he is trying to find a political balance and that might be difficult. The bottom line is that a lot of Trump voters, to whom white grievance has become practically a religion of its own, simply do not like the idea of a non-white, non-Christian, let alone Hindu Harvard and Yale grad lecturing them or having significant power. They may have applauded Vivek for his fights against the excesses of the woke left or his frequent denunciations of "transgenderism" or his previous strong opposition to U.S aid to Ukraine, but he may just be too pro-immigrant for them. This is all pretty timely because this past week a statewide nominee in Texas received all sorts of headlines and criticism when he Tweeted a photo of University of Texas students, who appeared to be Indian-American, celebrating the huge comeback victory the Longhorns had (against Ohio State.) It should be noted that the dudes in the photo all seem to be American citizens, some were born here, and all got into the state university because they had the best grades in High School and best test scores (not because of some immigration replacement theory to replace white folks) That blatantly racist post by Bo French has caused quite a chasm among Republicans, with many calling him out and others, including Trump, seeming to stand with him. Ramaswamy has apparently decided it is best to avoid this recent controversy altogether.

 

This is a clearly a very complex race. Acton has proven to be a fairly strong candidate, but doubts about her personal character and questions about that 911 call could perhaps be a problem. Ramaswamy is a very unconventional candidate for Governor. If the state is red enough, he will find a way to win, and nobody should really be surprised if he does. Right now, it is an open debate as far as I am concerned which race between this one and the Senate contest might be closer or more favorable to a Democrat upset. At the moment, it seems like if either stays Republican, it would probably be this one. Republicans will do all they can to try to portray Acton as a far-left liberal, even as she has taken steps as a general election candidate to break away from the far-left on such issues as voter ID and transgender athletes in sports. The thinking is that most of the folks on the far left are willing to be strategic enough to still vote for her.

 

A lot of Republicans around the country look at the recent election returns from Ohio and simply do not believe a candidate (at least one who has never won there before) can actually win as a Democrat. The online betting markets though are pointing to a slight edge at least for Acton. Of course, this election will be decided by votes and not "vibes." The polls, which while perhaps flawed are more scientific than Kalshi or  Polymarket, just over the past month show anything from a two points Ramaswamy lead to a three point Acton lead. This seems like a coin toss race.  Ohio will be choosing between a Jewish woman, who would be the first of either to be elected Governor and a Hindu man, who would be the first non-white Governor of the state in addition to the first of his religion obviously. Will some folks look at these choices and stay home or skip the race altogether? Will some on the right cast a protest vote for the Libertarian or maybe even an Independent on the ballot they might not know a lot about? In a race this close, any little bit may matter.

My hunch is that Ramaswamy comes close but cannot get enough of the MAGA diehards he needs to win. Some of that is about his skin color and religion while more of it may be about his personality and coming across as a "smart aleck" for lack of a better term. The Republican nominee is going to struggle to do as well with centrist voters as past winners like Kasich and DeWine have. He is perhaps just "too online" in his political identity, thinking that his base on social media is representative of the average voter. Republicans have recently won a couple Senate races with less than stellar Trump endorsed candidates. One of them is now Vice President and the other is fighting with his former son in-law, who is a very endangered Republican House Member. For Senate in 2022 and 2024, maybe the voters were willing to get on the MAGA train. In a race for Governor in 2026, perhaps not, and especially when the option for voters is seeing Vivek Ramaswamy on television for years to come.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

15 D  (2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

21 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)