South Dakota Governor- Race of the Day

33 Days Until Election Day

South Dakota Governor

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

The last time someone was seeking their first election for Governor in South Dakota, the Republican only won 51-48 during a Republican Presidential midterm year. Could a similar close race happen this year, when things are far worse for Republicans? Not too likely I think. The last Democrat to win the Governorship in this state was way back in 1974. the longest such streak for one party dominance in the country.

 

An incumbent is running for a full term as Governor, and that is because Lt. Governor Larry Rhoden moved up to take the top job last year when Kristi Noem, who would have been term-limited, left in her second term to become Secretary of Homeland Security under Donald Trump. The one time Republican rising star, who changed her political tone, as well as many aspects of her physical appearance made a ton of headlines while in the Cabinet, but ultimately was sent away in what was essentially a firing. Now, she is headed for divorce court with her husband of 34 years, amid irreconcilable differences which might involve her thinly hidden longtime affair with Corey Lewandowski and his penchant for wearing giant fake breasts while chatting online with models.

 

The reality of South Dakota Gubernatorial politics may be somewhat less salacious but it was far from a given that cowboy hat wearing Governor Rhoden would have a chance to be in this job long. In fact, he looked like a distinct political underdog as a June 2026 primary approached. For a while, it was unclear he would choose to run. In South Dakota, candidates for Governor pick their runningmate for the general election, but some choose to make their selection public well in advance of the primary, and Rhoden was running alongside Tony Venhuizen, the man he had appointed to fill the vacant Lt. Governor slot. He had been a former chief of staff to both Noem and to her predecessor as Governor who was also Venhuizen's father in law.

 

Other candidates were running as well in what felt like an open office contest. One of them, who also happened to be have been the Chief of Staff to Venhuizen's father in law, Governor Dennis Daugaard, before him was Congressman Dusty Johnson. Considered more of a traditional mainstream Republican, he had been elected to succeed Noem as the state's lone House Member in 2018. Johnson was close to Congressional leaders, at least during the brief Kevin McCarthy era and was giving up a safe House seat to run for Governor, believing he was in a good position to win and get out of Washington D.C., like his colleague from North Dakota had done in 2024. The Congressman never selected a runningmate, but did have the endorsement of his former boss, Governor Daugaard early on, despite the fact his son-in law had been selected for Lt. Governor by Rhoden and would likely be running with him. 

 

Two other candidates were also in the race who were considered more to the right. They were State House Speaker who ran along with Karla Lerns, who held the position of State House Speaker Pro Tempore. Competing without announcing a choice for Lt. Governor was wealthy businessman Toby Doeden, a burly political outsider.

 

With four credible campaigns being undertaken, it looked like the contest could move on to a runoff for the first time in state history nearly two months after the first vote if nobody reached 35 percent. That is indeed what would happen and it looked possible that the sitting Governor would not even make it that far. Doeden finished first with 31 percent, Rhoden held on and advanced with 25 percent, over Johnson, the one time frontrunner, who received 23 percent, ahead of Hansen who had 21 percent. Clearly, the Republicans in South Dakota were pretty well split, but it was a massive loss for the establishment favorite Johnson. A lot of sitting Democrat U.S. House Members have fallen short in races for higher office this primary cycle and in this case, that happened to a Republican.

 

I cannot claim to understand all the dynamics that unfolded next, but it appears that Doeden, after his first place showing, then proceeded to run a poor campaign, where he came across as impulsive and not up to speed on some issues. Rhoden also seemed to find his footing as the rest of the party seemed to rally around him for the runoff. Even without a Donald Trump endorsement in this race, the acting Governor went on to a big 71-29 runoff landslide.  

 

Democrats had an uncontested primary. Dan Ahlers, who had served two years in the State Senate some time ago in between two separate two year stints in the State House become the nominee. In 2020, he had been the party's nominee for U.S. Senate and lost to a Republican incumbent by 32 points and then later because Executive Director of the state party. The runningmate of Ahlers is former State Representative Steven McCleerey, a farmer.

 

Ahlers seems to be a credible nominee for his party but South Dakota is about as reliably Republican as states get, at least in typical political environments. With each passing day though, some think that Republicans everywhere are facing massive headwinds and this might be particularly noticeable in midwestern farm states. Just yesterday, a Democrat released poll came out publicly which was apparently conducted in late August, which makes it fairly out of date by now Nonetheless, it shows some pretty shocking results that many find hard to believe in terms of South Dakota's federal races. At the same time, it shows Rhoden ahead of Ahlers by a 51-44 margin, which is the best news produced in the survey for Republicans by far. If the race was truly that competitive then, it is probably even more so over a month later. I do not see a 30 or even 25 point win for the Republican incumbent this year, but it would be extremely surprising if this race would finish in single digits.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

12 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

20 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)