New Hampshire U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

56 Days Until Election Day

New Hampshire U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Results: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

Early voting for the general election is already underway in at least one state, but tonight, the final primary voting  of 2022 closed in three states, including New Hampshire. While the race on the Republican side has yet to be called, the current totals and the trend seem to indicate the likely winner, and once again, it is not a positive development for those who want to see Republicans take control of the Senate.

Six years ago, Democrat Maggie Hassan could have easily been reelected to a third two-year term as Governor, but national party leaders persuaded her to run for the U.S. Senate against freshman incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte. The election year of 2016, turned out to be a bad one for the GOP in the state, with the exception of the election of Chris Sununu as Governor. Ayotte had to deal with voters on the right who were upset when she withdrew her support of Donald Trump after the Access Hollywood tape came out as well as those on the left who were upset that she had been supporting Trump beforehand. Hassan won the tossup race by just over a thousand voters.

During her term, Senator Hassan has had a relatively low-profile on Capitol Hill. Like most female Senators and Governors, her name was bandied about as a potential Joe Biden runningmate but that appeared to be an extreme longshot. Ayotte had been seen as a more likely political rising star during the six years she served in the Senate. Tonight, the incumbent Democrat is currently taking 94 percent against two little known primary opponents.

For months, it looked like the 2022 New Hampshire Senate battle would mirror what happened in 2016, with a popular Governor forgoing a reelection bid to challenge a formidable freshman Senator. The Sununu and Ayotte camps targeted each other in press statements and pre-fight hype as the polls showed an extremely tight race loomed. It would not come to be though, as Sununu disappointed national Republicans by basically saying that serving in the Senate would suck and that he wants to stay as Governor, before maybe trying to run for President. It had also looked like Ayotte might run for whichever office Sununu did not seek and Republicans felt she could win a potential re-match with Hassan, but the former Senator announced immediately, she would be staying in the private sector. Some then checked quickly with Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts Senator who almost won a New Hampshire seat in 2014 after his stint next door, but he was not in either. None of the top tier candidates who were already running for the U.S. House were willing to switch to the Senate race either. To say the least, November 9, 2021 was a very good day for Maggie Hassan.

 

With the Republican field looking weak, State Senate President Chuck Morse mulled it over for several weeks. He had served as acting Governor for two days between the Hassan and Sununu Administrations and would have certainly run for Governor if Sununu was not seeking reelection. While the 61 year old Morse might not have been anybody's dream GOP Senate candidate, many in the party believed he could be quite competitive with Hassan during a midterm election year of a politically struggling Democrat President, especially with New Hampshire's history of one party or another doing very well given the dynamics of the election.

Morse did not have the Republican field to himself though. Ten other candidates are running, including a collection of political gadflies. The main challenge though was always Don Bolduc. A retired Army Brigadier General, who received two Purple Hearts in Afghanistan. He has spoken of having suffered a traumatic brain injury and dealing with PTSD due to his combat experiences. In 2020, Bolduc ran for the Senate and looked to be an intriguing candidate. Many GOP establishment figures, including former Florida Governor Jeb Bush endorsed him. Despite airing an ad in which Bolduc used the term "socialist pansies", then President Donald Trump endorsed a different candidate, who won the primary by a 50-42 margin. That nominee then lost by a wide margin to New Hampshire's other former female Governor turned U.S. Senator in the general election.

In wanting to run for the Senate again in 2022, Bolduc has embraced the strategy of tying himself to Donald Trump as closely as possible. Back when the candidate was saying he would oppose Governor Sununu, an oft Trump critic, in the Senate contest, Trump offered praise for Bolduc but has stopped short of endorsing him outright. Perhaps, Trump cannot get over the former Jeb Bush connection, or the Bolduc mused that the U.S. should perhaps use ground troops against Russia in Ukraine.. Another theory is that former Trump operatives on the ground in New Hampshire have implored him not to endorse the General. Nonetheless, Bolduc has become extremely outspoken in saying the 2020 election was stolen from Trump and took up the far right rallying cries about how another 1776 was needed. Even more oddly, Bolduc has been an avid anti-vaxxer, espousing theories such as Bill Gates wanting to use the Covid vaccine to implant microchips in Americans. In fairness, both Bolduc and his former Republican primary opponent, were very skeptical of vaccines during their 2020 run. There are a whole bunch of other controversial matters that Bolduc has weighed in on during this cycle, one of them being that the candidate currently seeking direct voter support to join the Senate believes that Senators should not be elected directly.

 

An additional candidate in the race who will finish in the double digits is former Londonberry Town Manager Kevin Smith. A decade ago, he finished a distant second in a GOP primary for New Hampshire Governor. While the Granite State is on the Canadian border, Smith seems to be basing most of his campaign on the crisis at the Southern border, and has visited the area and shot campaign ads there.

Morse has tried his best to say that he is a good conservative and no foe of Trump. Reportedly, there have been efforts made and rebuffed to get Trump to endorse Morse, as Republicans leaders fear that Bolduc has no chance of winning against Hassan and who could hurt the party in the Congressional races as well. In recent weeks, polls had showed Bolduc with a sizable lead over Morse, which might help explain Trump's reluctance to put his capital on the line on behalf of the underdog. Very recently, perhaps too late in the game, Governor Sununu came out in favor of Morse and said that electablity in the general election is paramount. While Sununu is likely to win reelection, he will have to share a ballot with the Senate candidate in a fairly small state.The Governor claimed (quite accurately as far as this campaign is concerned) that Bolduc is a "conspiracy theorist." The retired General called Governor Sununu a friend of the "Chinese Communist Party." In spite of all of this, Sununu, a potential Republican White House hopeful,  has said he will support Bolduc in the general election if he wins the primary. That endorsement may not be reciprocated. 

A reason that Bolduc had moved ahead in the polls may be meddling by the Democrats. They have been doing this in various states, where they spend money on television ads and other methods, ostensibly as a way of saying that someone like Bolduc is "too conservative" or "too extreme" but knowing full well that those sort of labels help them with the Republican base. The Chuck Schumer led Senate Democrats clearly prefer not to run against Morse, and have run ads tying him to lobbyists for a Chinese company, exactly the sort of thing that will help Bolduc win. Is this a smart political strategy? Perhaps. There is always the chance of a colossal failure if it backfires and Bolduc becomes a Senator, but it is hard to argue that he would not be easier for Hassan to defeat. Is it ethical though? I have talked about this in regards to other races and will again in the future. It is the height of hypocrisy for Democrats, who talk about the need to stamp out election deniers and other wackjobs in the Republican Party, but then use money to prop them up and give them a bigger megaphone. If Hassan were to beat Morse, as she would probably least narrowly be favored to, that Republican nominee would almost certainly concede the election. Bolduc will claim that the machines changed the votes and will never concede. Democrats are playing a very dangerous game and independent minded voters should note the difference between what politicians in their party, from Joe Biden on down, are saying on the one hand, and where they are spending their money on the other. It is really all about politics to them. Some Democrats have openly said this should not be happening, but not enough of them.

So, today is the primary. It appears that the Sununu endorsement or fears about Bolduc as the candidate have had an effect and made the race become closer than it looked not long ago. It appears to not be enough though. While at least one quarter of the precincts have yet to report, Bolduc is leading Morse 38-34. Kevin Smith (not the overrated Gen X filmmaker of the same name) has 12 percent. The online experts of New Hampshire politics are saying that the votes are unlikely to be there for Morse to catch up. The end result will probably be close enough to claim that Democrat spending to boost Bolduc was the difference. It also seems clear that a Trump endorsement of Morse would have swayed the race to him. Hopefully, deep down, Morse would have known how dirty he would have felt if that is what it took.

With Bolduc the apparent winner, instead of Morse, the race is classified by me as "Likely Democrat" instead of "Leans Democrat", with the potential of being a Tossup if economic angst increases again by November. Had Sununu run for the Senate, he would have probably been favored. The path that Democrats have to holding on to the Senate is just a little bit easier thanks to New Hampshire.

 

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

10 D (5 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

11 R (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

46 D (36 Holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

40 R (29 Holdover, 6 Safe. 3 Likely, 2 Leans)