New Hampshire Governor- Race of the Day

58 Days Until Election Day

New Hampshire Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

The Granite State is one of two in the nation, along with neighboring Vermont, where the Governor is elected every two years. Historically, elections for the office have been dominated by Republicans, although Democrats have won some contests over the past 25 years as well. Their best hope of winning the office back though might have ended when incumbent Chris Sununu declared he would seek a fouth two year term.

Sununu has been around New Hampshire politics his entire life. When he was a child, his father John Sununu was elected Governor and served for six years before a controversial tenure as White House Chief of Staff under President George H.W. Bush. The current Governor's older brother also served years later in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate before losing his seat in the strong Democrat year of 2008. Two years after that, Chris Sununu, a businessman and engineer was elected to the New Hampshire Executive Council, essentially a fourth branch of state government that no other state has.

In 2016, Sununu faced a Gubernatorial primary featuring candidates who were running to his right and prevailed by less than a thousand votes. He then won a tight general election to take over for Democrat Maggie Hassan, who left the Governorship to successfully unseat a Republican incumbent U.S. Senator. That result for a Republican, at the same time that Donald Trump also narrowly lost the state and Democrats won both Congressional seats looked even more impressive by comparison. The Governor then won two reelections by increasing margins, taking the 2020 race 65-33. Somehow, Sununu had managed to remain popular while walking a political tight rope regarding his support of Donald Trump, as a member of the then President's party. While Trump had only lost New Hampshire by two points in 2016, he lost the state in 2020 by eight points to Joe Biden. Clearly, many Democrats were crossing over to vote for Sununu.

For a time, it looked very much like the Governor would not seek reelection in 2022, but would instead run for the U.S. Senate against Democrat Hassan, his predecessor as Governor. National Republicans were very excited about the idea, and many braced for a top-tier race between the two. Leaving the Governorship open would have given Democrats a much better chance at winning that office. In November of 2021 however, Sununu said he would not seek the Senate seat. National Republicans were quite disappointed, but if there was any solace, it was that he would at least run again for Governor.

In making his announcement, Sununu bemoaned the state of affairs on Capitol Hill and said that made it clear that he would not want to be a Senator. He criticized Congressional Republicans for a lack of an agenda, and those remarks would be oft-repeated by President Biden in his criticism of the opposing party. Needless to say, national Democrats decided that the New Hampshire Gubernatorial election could be considered an afterthought, when they praised Sununu in such a way. The Governor said that while he would not run for the Senate, he did not rule out the possibility that he might want to serve in the federal government. Speculation then turned to the possibility that Sununu, the chief executive of the state that holds the First in the Nation Primary, might run for President in 2024. 

Some had tried to encourage Sununu to challenge Trump in the 2020 GOP Presidential primary, but he dismissed that saying he was a "Trump guy." Since the 2020 elections though, the Governor has taken a different and at times somewhat inconsistent message on the former President. At the annual Gridiron Dinner dinner, in Washington D.C., where cameras are not allowed, but remarks are widely reported, Sununu called Trump "crazy", after using a colorful adjective just before. He said that if Trump were to be put into a mental institute, "he ain't getting out."

These remarks, though ostensibly said in a joking way at the dinner, seemed to draw the ire of many in the Trump wing of the Republican Party. Some of the usual right-wing suspects are challenging Sununu in this upcoming Tuesday's primary. The Governor has not done much to tamp down speculation that he might have his eye on a White House bid. More recently though, he has gone on television and seemed to be trying to go out of his way to give Trump the benefit of the doubt on the recent FBI search warrant executed at Mar-a-Lago and he has recently been very harsh in criticism of Biden for his recent willingness to target "MAGA Republicans" in a public way. In my view, Sununu's demeanor on some national television appearances have led him looking to be somewhat frantic in his delivery and communication skills, although I am sure his supporters will say he is just being himself and comes across as authentic. Of course, I remain interested in any potential Republican Presidential candidate who will offer to move the party away from Trumpism.

Sununu remains popular in his state and polls show he will not have much of a problem with his primary challengers on Tuesday. The U.S. Senate contest that Sununu passed on is a much bigger concern for Republicans. A candidate backed by Trump, whom many think is unelectable, has been leading the candidate who was maybe the third or fourth option for establishment Republicans, but who would be very competitive against Hassan. Not long ago on television, Sununu was guaranteeing that Republicans would be sure to pick up the seat with whomever they nominated, but this past week, the Governor finally offered his formal endorsement to Chuck Morse, hoping to transfer some political support to him, in the hopes he can win the primary. Doing so of course has some risk for Sununu if he fails, in terms of his political capital among New Hampshire Republicans. Many in the party nationally, were angered when Sununu refused to go along with a legislative proposal for redrawing the Congressional lines for the state's two districts in a way that would have benefited his fellow Republicans. Such a sign of "independence" (which is very rare when it comes to redistricting efforts in both parties) could be something he winds up bragging about on the national stage.

With Sununu seeking reelection, most of the Democrats in the state who might have wanted to take a shot at the Governorship instead took a pass. The party seems to have coalesced around State Senator Tom Sherman, who is not even facing a primary opponent. Sherman, a physician, seems to be a credible candidate, but has to be considered a distinct underdog to the incumbent,

New Hampshire is far from a GOP dominated state. After all, it is in New England. That reality plus the fact that Sununu may not exactly have a totally unified party behind him, makes it difficult at this point to call the race "Safe Republican", but it would be pretty shocking if the Governor does not win another term.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

13 D (2 Safe, 6 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

  9 R  (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

19 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans)