Vermont Governor- Race of the Day

30 Days Until Election Day

Vermont Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Republican

 

The Green Mountain State is very liberal in its politics and has some quirky aspects to its elections. Like neighboring New Hampshire, it is one of two states to choose a Governor every two years. It is the only state where a joint session of the legislature might theoretical elect a Governor. This would occur if no candidate for the office won a majority of the vote in November. That is not expected to happen this year, and furthermore, there is the expectation that the legislature, which for some time has been controlled by Democrats, would never not ratify the plurality winner of the vote, even if it is someone from the other party. This is relevant because while Vermont is very Democrat in general, it has elected several moderate Republicans as Governor, and currently has one, who is among the nation's most popular.

Phil Scott used to be considered a conservative by Vermont standards, but in today's politics is considered a "RINO" by many. He has his own brand in Vermont though that has been quite successful even as the rest of the Republican Party in the state is somewhat of a mess, in which unorthodox weak candidates are nominated for some offices, and the party cannot even find candidates to run for some others.

A businessman and former race car driver, Scott was first elected to the State Senate in 2000. A decade later he won statewide office as Lt. Governor and then was reelected every two years until his 2016 election as Governor. Scott has never lost an election and two years ago, won a third two-year term with 69 percent of the vote. This was 38 percent higher of a vote percentage than that received by Donald Trump on the same ballot. Based on those figures, it might not be surprising that Scott himself was one of the Vermonters who voted for Joe Biden. He is easily the most prominent current Republican elected official to admit to voting for Biden, which he confessed after the election though probably not the only one in 2020. Before the election, he said he once again could not vote for Trump, but did not commit to voting for the Democrat. After the events in early January 2021, Scott was the first Republican Governor to call on Trump to resign or be removed from office. A couple others would later join that call. 

Clearly, nobody would confuse Phil Scott, with his former Gubernatorial colleague Rick Scott of Florida. The latter is now Chairman of the NRSC and considering the lack of GOP possibilities in Vermont, national Republicans would have liked Scott to have run for the U.S. Senate this year and would have been more than willing to overlook his breaks with Trump. According to at least one poll, the Governor had a small lead on longtime Democrat Senator Pat Leahy, but Scott did not appear to be interested in a Senate campaign, even after Leahy announced his retirement. The far easier path for the popular Governor would be to run again for another term, though he kept some wondering for a while if he would even run again for that office. Two years earlier, Scott did not even do much in the way of fundraising or campaigning because he said he had to focus on fighting Covid in the state.

In May, Scott announced he would run for Governor again and in the August primary, he took 69 percent against two opponents. Efforts to oppose Scott from the right had occurred before and the second place finisher, landscaping contractor Stephen Bellows took 18 percent. All things considered, it was a strong showing for a Republican primary winner, who admitted to voting for a Democrat to be President. Despite this, Vermont Republicans seemed to be of a more ideological mindset in the open U.S. Senate primary and defeated the candidate Scott would have liked to see win. In the open statewide U.S. House primary, Republicans weirdly voted to nominate a left-wing activist who openly admitted he was not a Republican.

Despite the landslide results of the last Gubernatorial contest, I am always reluctant to call the state "Safe Republican" for Governor Scott. Democrats should have a huge advantage in the state, but against the incumbent, they are unlikely to win this year as well. Some on the right may be more likely to boycott Scott this time around as well. In Vermont, Democrats have an alliance of sorts with the Progressive Party, an even further to the left group, and sometimes split ballot spots with them as to whom to support and sometimes co-endorse a nominee.

Since Scott is so popular and with open races for U.S. Senate and Congress, plus down ballot statewide races, only one Democrat ran for Governor. The nominee is nonprofit executive Brenda Siegel. She took 86 percent while the others went to write-ins.  Former State Representative Susan Hatch Davis won the Progressive primary without opposition, but then dropped out so that party could get behind Siegel. The current nominee had finished in third place in both the 2018 Gubernatorial primary and the 2020 Lt. Governor primary. Her political standing may have improved somewhat when she came out as bisexual a couple of years ago. Siegel said she did so in solidarity with her teenage bisexual son. This is not too much of a radical concept in Vermont of course. In 2018, Scott defeated a transgendered woman.

The political standing and the likely upcoming solid reelection win for Phil Scott this year should definitely be a Political Science case study about how a politician can transcend a political party label.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

17 D  (2 Safe, 10 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

17 R  (4 Safe, 9 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

23 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

25 R (8 Holdovers, 4 Safe, 9 Likely,  3 Leans, 1 Tossup)