Tennessee Governor- Race of the Day

33 Days Until Election Day

Tennessee Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

I almost forgot to do the Race of the Day today. Fittingly, many may find it hard to remember that Tennessee is electing a Governor this year.

The Volunteer State, once staunchly Democrat has joined many other southern locales in becoming very GOP friendly. Republicans should easily win their fourth in a row as incumbent Bill Lee is seeking a second term. He faces a reasonably credible Democrat opponent and a slew of unknown and gadfly Independent candidates.

Four years ago, Lee won his first attempt at elected office. The former businessman and cattle farmer won a crowded primary in 2018 after more politically experienced Republican candidates had focused on attacking each other. Lee then received 60 percent of the general election vote against a former Nashville Mayor, who was considered perhaps the strongest candidate Democrats could offer. As Governor, Lee has embarked on a conservative agenda, including on social issues, and is considered to the right of Bill Haslam, his immediate Republican predecessor. 

The Governor's opponent is Jason Martin, a pulmonologist and political newcomer from Nashville. Back in 1994, a Republican heart surgeon from the same area seemingly came out of nowhere to win election to the U.S. Senate, but this is a different time, and Martin is of a different party than Bill Frist. In order to win the nomination this past August, Martin had to defeat two African-American opponents, both from Memphis. It has appeared going into the race that Memphis City Councilor JB Smiley would be favored for the nomination. However, the young former semi-professional basketball player and attorney saw political activist Carita Atwater eat into his base of racial and geographic support. Martin did better among what remains of white Tennessee Democrats, mostly urban liberals from the Nashville area, and edged out Smiley by less than 1500 votes. Both candidates received 39 percent while Atwater who might have appealed more to older black voters took 22 percent. It seems clear that an African-American would have won the nomination if not for the split vote.

Martin is a steep underdog against Lee, although there does not appear to be any real polling on the race. The Democrat is expressing his support for things such as marijuana legalization and support for abortion, but Tennessee is considered pretty conservative as a whole. It remains unclear that Martin will be able to engineer a large turnout among black voters in order to be somewhat competitive against the incumbent. The Governor's campaign social media accounts seem pretty sporadically updated, but that probably hardly matters. Lee is on pace for a solid win.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

17 D  (2 Safe, 10 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

15 R  (4 Safe, 8 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

23 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

23 R (8 Holdovers, 4 Safe, 8 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)