South Dakota Governor- Race of the Day

36 Days Until Election Day

South Dakota Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Republican

The extremely strong Republican lean of South Dakota makes it highly unlikely that any Democrat can win a statewide election. No Democrat has won the Governorship since one was reelected in 1974.  However, the election for the office was pretty close four years ago and there are ethical allegations surrounding first term Governor Kristi Noem. Without the benefit of any polling showing her with an insurmountable lead, one has to be cautious and classify this as "Likely Republican."

Noem spent four years as a State Representative and then eight years in the U.S. House as South Dakota's lone Member of the lower chamber. A telegenic figure she was seen as someone who could chose to rise in the House Leadership or seek a U.S. Senate seat. She decided however to run for Governor in 2018 and beat back the state's Attorney General in the GOP primary by 12 points. The general election turned out to be a good deal closer and Noem only won by about three points against the State Senate Minority Leader, a Democrat who portrayed himself as a moderate and had a compelling personal story. This was easily the closest election for Governor in recent South Dakota history. Some felt that Noem was viewed as too ideologically rigid and focused on social issues.

As Governor, she has not done much to put aside the belief that she has her high on higher office. An ally of Donald Trump during his time as President, Noem has been a very active conservative executive and has not been shy about appearing on national media shows. She is said to have suggested that a place on South Dakota's Mt. Rushmore be set aside for Trump. Noem also made headlines for taking one of the most limited approaches in regards to Covid mitigation of any Governor during the early parts of the pandemic. If the former President were to be nominated again, it is possible that Noem would be at the top of the list for his new Vice Presidential candidate.

Trump wanted Noem to run for the U.S. Senate this cycle against incumbent John Thune, whom was not seen as being adequately pro-MAGA. The Governor did not seem to give this much thought though and chose to seek reelection instead of an intense primary battle for the Senate. She still had a primary contest though in June against State Representative Steven Haugaard, a former State House Speaker. Haugaard claimed that Noem was too focused on national matters and being a celebrity political figure instead of dealing with more pressing South Dakota issues. At the same time though, he tried to run to her right, claiming she had "caved to big business" by vetoing a bill to ban transgendered individuals from participating in girls' and women's' sports. This seemed like sort of a mixed approach to challenging an incumbent. The primary itself would not be close as Noem won 76 percent of the vote. Haugaard made a brief attempt to try to derail Lt. Governor Larry Rhoden, the Governor's choice to run again with her in the general election, but that candidacy also failed at the state nominating convention.

The Governor has had a bit of a problem an another front as well. This summer, a state ethics board said that there was evidence that Noem had engaged in official misconduct when she intervened to help her daughter obtain a real estate appraisal license from the state. There was also a complaint regarding her use of a state airplane for political events. Noem has denied any wrongdoing and said she was targeted by the since resigned Republican Attorney General (not her former primary opponent) whom Noem had worked to remove from office after he killed a pedestrian in an auto accident and left the scene in 2020. Last year, a pro-Trump website published an allegation that the married Governor was having an affair with former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. The two denied they were involved and then the Governor briefly cut ties with Lewandowski, who at the same time had just been accused of making unwanted advances towards a female Republican donor in Nevada. A few months back, it was reported that the two are now working together again politically and were seen together at a meeting of Republican Governors. Most recently, Lewandowski cut a deal with prosecutors in Nevada after having been with misdemeanor battery.

Democrats did not have a contested primary for Governor and many were surely disappointed when their competitive 2018 nominee Billie Sutton, who is still just in his 30s, declined a rematch. Instead, the party nominated the State House Minority Leader Jamie Smith. A burly former educator and coach, he has called for less partisanship in state government and has accused Noem of being overly divisive. After his nomination was official, he chose fellow State Representative Jennifer Keintz, who had a farming background as his pick for Lt. Governor. I think it is probably just a coincidence and not an attempt to troll Noem (or myself) by the fact that Keintz's husband is named Corey.

 

The incumbent, who has been very vocal on the Pro-Life issue, has had to defend her support of a bill banning abortions in the state without an exception for rape. She has tried to focus on her economic stewardship of the state and how businesses were kept open during the pandemic. The Libertarian nominee was included in the recently held televised debate and some have speculated that she could take votes away from the Republican.

Noem definitely has the advantage of how red South Dakota is as well as a sizeable campaign financing advantage working in her favor. It would be interesting to see if a reputable poll could show the race somewhat in the range of competitive. In September, there was a story of a "leaked poll", purportedly done by Noem's campaign showing her ahead by a very slim 44-42 margin. Not surprisingly, the Governor's campaign disputed that while Smith's campaign said they agreed with the numbers and that the race is tight.

If that were to be the case, the Noem campaign will have no choice but to put their cash to use in going very negative on their opponent and trying to tie him to national Democrats. The South Dakota Governor would definitely prefer to preserve some money and her political capital for what may lay ahead.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

17 D (2 Safe, 10 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

14 R  (3 Safe, 8 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

23 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

22 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 8 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)