South Carolina Governor- Race of the Day

38 Days Until Election Day

South Carolina Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Democrats should not have a ton of reasons to feel optimistic about winning this race or any other major contest in South Carolina. Two years ago, there was some hope that they might flip a U.S. Senate seat and at least come close in the Presidential vote, and neither of those things wound up happening. While a Democrat has not won the Governorship of the Palmetto State since 1998, they have at least held their GOP opponent to no better than 56 percent of the vote in each of those elections. That might be just about the semi-competitive standard they could hope for this year.

At 75 years old, Republican Governor Henry McMaster has had a long political career of ups and downs. His first race for office in 1986, after having been a U.S. Attorney, saw him as basically a sacrificial lamb for his party against an incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator. Four years later, he lost again as the nominee for Lt. Governor, back when the office was elected separately, as South Carolina Democrats were still very strong at the statewide level. A Republican was in the Governor's office though, and McMaster was appointed to some government posts and also served several years as the State Republican Chairman. 

In 2002, sixteen years after his first electoral attempt, McMaster finally won an election as Attorney General. After two terms, he ran for Governor but finished third in the 2010 primary, but quickly endorsed first place finisher Nikki Haley, who won the runoff and the Governorship and then appointed McMaster to the South Carolina Ports Authority. In 2014, he ran for office again and was elected Lt. Governor. In that office, he was one of the earliest political figures to endorse Donald Trump for President, despite McMaster's long ties to the party establishment. When Governor Haley was nominated to become Ambassador to the United Nations, McMaster was in line to take over as Governor, as many thought Trump helped specifically engineer as payback.

McMaster faced some rocky waters early on as Governor, with some corruption matters swirling around his political associates. Despite having Trump's support, the Governor took just 42 percent in the 2018 Republican Primary, and had to face a runoff which he won by a somewhat close eight points. That was just about the same margin he won the general election by, which felt modest by the standards of how Republican South Carolina had become. This was the first election in which the Lt. Governor was elected on the same ticket as the Governor and McMaster ran with and won with businessman Pamela Evette.

Currently, McMaster, running again with Evette, is seeking a second full term as Governor. He has pretty much coalesced the party behind him at this point and had little trouble in the June primary, against a truck driver who took 16 percent of the vote, running to the Governor's right. In office, McMaster, working alongside a Republican legislature, has pursued a conservative agenda across the board. In 2021, he signed a bill that would ban most abortions in South Carolina. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, this has become one of the main issues that the Democrats' nominee has been pushing.

At 40 years of age, Joe Cunningham is close to two generations younger than the incumbent. An attorney and small businessman, he ran for Congress and won one of the biggest upsets in 2018, winning a seat in the Charleston area that had been considered heavily Republican. This only came the incumbent, himself a former Governor, was defeated in the primary by a State Representative considered much friendlier to Donald Trump. This chasm in the Republican Party was enough to send Cunningham off to Capitol Hill,  after a 51-49 win, where he tried to portray himself as a moderate and was among the freshmen Democrats who did not support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker.. When he sought reelection though in 2020, he was ousted 51-49, against another female Republican opponent, but one considered a stronger candidate.

 
Instead of trying to run again for his former House seat, the ambitious Cunningham launched a bid for Governor, as even in spite of his recent loss, he was considered the strongest candidate for the party. By this point, African-Americans were by far the dominant force in the party, and of course, Joe Biden owes his Presidency to their primary support. In order to be nominated Governor, Cunningham would have to win a primary against black opponents. The only serious contender though was State Senator Mia McLeod, who played up her progressive credentials and at least subtly that she was a black woman running against a white man for an office where Democrats had only nominated white men previoisly.

McLeod received an interesting endorsement in the contest, that of Amanda Cunningham, Joe's ex-wife. While she did not directly attack her former husband and said she was merely excited about helping to try to nominate an African-American woman, the two Cunninghams were said to have had a bit of a messy breakup, which came as a surprise to many, after they split up in 2021. They were a very visible and some would say glamorous political couple during his Congressional runs. The two share custody of their young son.

Cunningham managed to avoid a runoff and beat McLeod 57-31. Almost immediately after that, the new nominee tested positive for Covid, for the second time, and was briefly off the campaign trail. The task at hand was selecting a Lt. Governor running-mate however and it was seen as a near necessity that Cunningham pick an African-American woman to run with. The defeated McLeod had indicated during the campaign that she did not want the job and would never accept an offer. Behind the scenes, the process dragged on and stories leaked that Cunningham was finding it hard to find a suitable black woman who wanted the nomination. Somewhat unconventionally, his campaign released a list of nine finalists. Eventually, he announced the selection of attorney Tally Parham Casey, an attorney, and the first female fight pilot in the South Carolina National Guard. The Iraq War veteran brought gender and geographical balance to the ticket, but not race, as Casey is a white woman. She had also had her own divorce drama several years back and like Cunningham, had a sealed custody case file. According to rumors, the since remarried Casey had been accused of salacious wrongdoings by her ex-husband.

 

As an underdog in conservative South Carolina, Cunningham has tried some tactics to receive media attention and drive up voter turnout for those who might want a change in the Governorship. The Democrat has said for instance that he would legalize marijuana in the state. Most notably though, he has called for age limits for state politicians. Citing the fact that South Carolina have to retire at age 72, he proposed that nobody 72 or older be allowed to run for public office in South Carolina. While that would certainly relate to Governor McMaster, who Cunningham points out has been involved in politics longer than he has himself been alive. This proposal also means that Cunningham thinks that the even older Joe Biden should not be President, as well as about the entire Congressional Leadership of his party. One of those figures, the 82 year old Congressman Jim Clyburn, easily the most prominent of current South Carolina Democrats, responded by saying, "Joe needs to grow up." Clearly, he meant his former colleague Cunningham and not the President that Clyburn might single handily have won the nomination for. 

Cunningham has stood by what he proposed and said that Biden should "step aside" and not run for a second term. This is not an unheard of opinion among Democrats and the current President is not popular within South Carolina. However, the nominee might have gone out of his way to alienate a lot of African-American voters in particular by this tactic. The polls show McMaster on pace to win in November, but not by overwhelming numbers. Cunningham will need to hope to get a strong black turnout and receive nearly all of those votes, as well as hoping to peel away suburban and upscale voters who might be concerned about strict new abortion laws in the state or who are otherwise displeased with the direction of the Republican Party. McMaster will probably fall short of winning 60 percent, but it is hard to see him actually losing.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

17 D (2 Safe, 10 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

13 R  (3 Safe, 7 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

23 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

21 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 7 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)