Rhode Island Governor- Race of the Day

39 Days Until Election Day

Rhode Island Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

Broadly speaking, Rhode Island has remained one of the most pro-Democrat states in the Union for decades now. However, the party has struggled in Gubernatorial elections during much of that time. In 2014, Gina Raimondo became the first Democrat to win the office, since an incumbent was reelected in 1992. Her victory came in a three way race though, where she beat out her Republican opponent 41-36. Four years later, she increased the margin over the same opponent 53-37. The Governor would not stick around though to complete her second and final term. A former venture capitalist, Raimondo was considered fairly moderate on fiscal matters and had clashes at times with the left-wing of her party. Considered for several Cabinet posts by President-Elect Joe Biden, she was eventually nominated as Secretary of Commerce.

With Raimondo leaving for the nation's capital, that elevated Lt. Governor Dan McKee, also a Democrat, to the top office. The position is not elected on the same ballot line as Governor and the two were not considered to have been close personally, politically, or in the execution of government. The Lt. Governor had written the Governor letters as a way to try to get her to communicate with him and they were said to go unanswered. With this little amount of past cooperation, McKee would take over as Governor during a pandemic. 

A businessman and local politician before becoming Lt Governor, McKee was considered conservative by Rhode Island Democrat standards. His taking over the Governorship became a matter of concern to many in the party who expressed that he was a nice man but in over his head. Earlier this month, with the support of the state party and the DGA, McKee managed to narrowly win a primary battle with just 33 percent of the vote. The other candidates all ran to his left and the new incumbent tried to portray himself as a good Democrat who shared the same positions and values as others in the party. The second and third place finishers were both women. If McKee had a sole challenger, he likely would have lost. Businesswoman Helena Foulkes, who had family members who had been prominent Connecticut Democrat politicians finished in second with 30 percent, just a few thousand votes behind the incumbent. Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea was third with 26 percent. One of her predecessors in that post took just 8 percent, despite having won the endorsement of Bernie Sanders. This was well below the amount Matt Brown received four years earlier when he launched a primary challenge to Raimondo for Governor. Months before the primary, the State Treasurer had dropped out of the race to run for an open Congressional seat, and was eventually nominated. In the campaign, the 71 year old Governor ran ads featuring an endorsement from his elderly mother, and she became enough of a popular figure to be featured in several campaign videos and on t-shirts and the like.

There is not much of a GOP bench in Rhode Island, despite the state having elected a series of moderate Republicans as Governor (one of whom eventually became a Democrat.) Former Cranston Mayor Alan Fung twice was the nominee against Raimondo and was competitive, but instead of making a third attempt, he also decided to run for the same open Congressional seat. The eventual Republican nominee businesswoman Ashley Kalus was a virtual unknown, even among Republicans, when she entered the race.

Her ties to Rhode Island are virtually non existent, but her husband had lived there before they were married and Kalus states they had always wanted to relocate their family to Rhode Island. A chance to win a Gubernatorial nomination that nobody else seemed to really want was just the incentive. Most recently, Kalus had been living in Illinois  (but registered to vote in Florida). Previously, she had roles in the campaign and Administration of Illinois Republican Governor Bruce Rauner, who was pretty unpopular during his four years in office and lost a 2018 reelection bid in a landslide. Living in Illinois and following politics, I do not recall ever hearing of Kalus during this time. When Rauner was Governor, he often spoke admiringly across the aisle of his fellow Governor, and former venture capitalist Gina Raimondo and her policies in Rhode Island.

As a political newcomer, Kalus seems to be an energetic campaigner who playing up her role as the mother of three young sons. Recently, there has been controversy surrounding her having listed her new Rhode Island home as a "second residence" on mortgage documents, while trying to maintain tax benefits for their Illinois home. She took the primary with 84 percent over an opponent who had previously ran for Lt. Governor as an Independent.

The recently started general election campaign has gotten pretty pointed. Kalus has called McKee a "corrupt career politician" and he accused her of "crapping" on the state. Kalus has taken some conservative positions that might be a tougher sell in liberal Rhode Island than might be the case in other sates. 

As seen by the primary results, most Rhode Island Democrats would have preferred a different nominee than the incumbent Governor. This tension also apparently included an incident on Primary Night, where McKee publicly refused to accept a concession phone call from Foulkes and instructed staff to hang  up on her while he was giving his victory speech. How did she not know he was speaking live on television when she placed the call? Could he just not have offered to call her right back when he was done speaking?

Despite any of these intra-party tensions, Democrats should be heavily favored to keep the office of Governor. McKee may not be beloved, but Kalus still is unknown by many people in the state and has little time to introduce herself. Carpetbagger candidates may find it easier to win office to legislative office, but a race for Governor is another story, especially in a small parochial place like Rhode Island.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

17 D (2 Safe, 10 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

12 R  (3 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

23 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

20 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)