Oregon U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

43 Days Until Election Day

Oregon U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

The Gubernatorial election this year in Oregon is intriguing. The Senate contest is not.

Since winning a 1996 Special Election, after 15 years before that as a Congressman, Democrat Ron Wyden has easily been reelected four times to the Senate. Once considered among the most liberal Democrats on Capitol Hill, some on the left have come to see Wyden as too centrist on issues such as free trade and too willing to work with Republicans on some issues. Nonetheless, the current Chair of the Senate Finance Committee did not have much of a problem in Oregon May primary. He won 89 percent against two little known challengers. In the general elections, some Oregonians may choose to cast a protest vote for the Progressive Party or the Pacific Greens but that is unlikely to much to hurt Wyden cruising to another.

A big part of the reason is that the Republicans have once again nominated a weak candidate. The nominee against Wyden is insurance agent and party activist Jo Rae Perkins who has become a perennial candidate among Oregon Republicans. She has run for either the House or Senate every two years since 2014. In 2020, she finally won the GOP nomination, and in a Senate election nonetheless against a weak field. While she was not expected to be too competitive against the state's junior Senator Jeff Merkley, it only really came to light after she gave her primary victory speech that she was associated with the Q- Anon Movement, which many rightfully feel is a cult. After the initial interest into this part of his political ideology, Perkins tried to distance herself somewhat from the group and claimed she only bought into some of their crazy theories. She lost to Merkley 57-39, in a race that did not get much attention, and likely should not have wound up as close as it even did. By virtue of being the Republican nominee, Perkins did win many rural counties, but Democrats almost always win statewide due to their strength in the Portland area.

In 2022, Perkins had gained more name recognition and was one of seven Republican candidates. This time, her margin of victory was far smaller than was the case two years earlier. She won 33 percent while businessman Darin Harbick took 31 percent. A County Commissioner and a small town Mayor who were perhaps considered more credible candidates finished way further back. It took several days for the results to become official and while Wyden was never at the top of anyone's target list, her re-nomination had to be embarrassing again for  many national and state Republicans.

Despite this being a midterm election, I think Wyden will probably win a few more crossover votes than Merkley was able to and should improve on his 2020 victory margin.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

12 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

16 R (8 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

48 D (36 Holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

45 R (29 Holdover, 8 Safe. 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)