Ohio Governor- Race of the Day

50 Days Until Election Day

Ohio Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Much attention will be paid to the Buckeye State this fall, but it will mostly relate to the open U.S. Senate race. The election for Governor appears far less competitive. GOP Governors have tended to win second four year terms by large margins and the entire state is now considered to be far more Republican than it has been in modern times. This advantage for Republicans is what the party will hope to be the saving factor for a polarizing U.S. Senate nominee. More about that tomorrow though.

Governor Mike DeWine is almost certainly running his last race and has had a very lengthy political career of ups and downs that seems poised to end with a substantial victory at age 75. The current Governor first ran for county office and was successful in 1976, shortly before he turned 30. Four years later, he went on to the State Senate in Columbus and shortly thereafter, DeWine became a Republican Congressman. In 1990, he returned to state government on a victorious ticket as the candidate for Lt. Governor. Two years later, he ran statewide again, and attempted to return to Capitol Hill, but lost a relatively competitive U.S. Senate race to incumbent Democrat John Glenn.

The other Senate seat opened up in 1994 and DeWine was ready to try again. At this point in time, Ohio had a weird quirk of all its Governors and U.S. Senators only winning election after a previous statewide defeat. This midterm election was much better for Republicans and DeWine won easily over the departing Democrat's son in law. In the Senate, DeWine was seen as a socially conservative, but soft-spoken consensus speaker and was easily reelected in 2000 though. Six years later, as the Senator sought a third term, the tide had turned against the GOP nationally and especially in Ohio. DeWine lost by 12 points and his political career appeared over.

In the 2010 midterm, the political scenario for Republicans looked much better again and DeWine attempted a comeback by running for Attorney General. In a very competitive race, he knocked off the incumbent Democrat and then won a second term with ease in 2014. During his time as Attorney General, DeWine antagonized conservatives by some of his actions and also probably did himself no political favors when he was one of the few establishment politicians to withdraw a 2012 Presidential endorsement of Mitt Romney in the primaries in favor of former Senate colleague Rick Santorum, who had also suffered a large 2006 defeat.

By 2018, there was not really anything left for DeWine to run for besides the Governorship. He would face primary opposition though but received the lion's share of party endorsements. He was helped when Secretary of State Jon Husted ended his campaign for Governor and agreed to be DeWine's runningmate. Still, the Attorney General had to defeat current Lt. Governor Mary Taylor. Both candidates were one time allies and supporters of outgoing Republican Governor John Kasich (the latter of course having spent eight years as the running-mate and second in commend) but Republican politics changed in Ohio after Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential nomination and Kasich declined to support him. Both candidates distanced themselves from the incumbent Governor and played up their agreements with Trump. DeWine won the primary easily and then won the general election with 50 percent in a rematch against the former Attorney General he had beaten eight years previously.

As Governor, DeWine followed a pretty conservative playbook but was seen as being more willing to enact anti-Covid measures in the state that many conservative base supporters disliked. In some regards, DeWine moved quicker and more extensively than many of his Democrat Gubernatorial colleagues and he received praise from that party for it. At a 2020 rally, Lt. Governor Husted was booed by the pro-Trump crowd, especially after he suggested that citizens wear masks. While Donald Trump managed to win Ohio in his 2020 reelection bid, the outgoing President soured on DeWine when the Governor of Ohio refused to back up claims of massive election fraud and admitted that Joe Biden had won the election. Furthermore, DeWine said Trump should have done more to stop the actions on January 6th and offered his support for a GOP Congressman who voted to impeach the former President. Trump had once bragged of his relationship with DeWine but after the 2020 election referred to him as a "terrible guy" and "terrible Governor."

DeWine was seeking reelection in 2022 and Trump took to social media to try to encourage a primary challenge to the incumbent. Three Republicans (and their Lt. Governor runningmates) filed to run against DeWine and Husted in the May primary, but with all running to the right, it was clear the anti-DeWine vote would be split. Trump, looking at the polls, declined to endorse anyone. DeWine won, but with just 48 percent of the vote. Finishing in second place with 28 percent was former Congressman Jim Renacci. He had originally gotten into the open 2018 primary for Governor against DeWine but then President Trump talked him into running for the Senate. As the pro-Trump Republican nominee, Renacci lost by six points to the Democrat incumbent. This was said to anger Trump, as he does not like "losers" and was surprised to see a Republican loss in Ohio. Without Trump's endorsement, Renacci also had to compete with farmer Joe Blystone who ran as the most MAGA candidate and took 22 percent. Clearly, Ohio Republicans were divided on DeWine, but it does not appear to be a huge factor heading into the general election. A conservative pastor did attempt to enter the race against the "RINO" DeWine, saying he did not care if he helped elect a Democrat by splitting the vote, but failed to make the ballot.

Democrats had a two way primary with candidates seen as credible challengers. The winner with 65 percent of the vote was Nan Whaley, the former Mayor of Dayton, who had just recently left office. She had gotten into the 2018 race for Governor but dropped out before the primary. The defeated candidate was John Cranley, who had just been term limited out as Mayor of Cincinnati. He had a couple Congressional defeats on his record from the early part of the millennium. It appears that Whaley may have had a greater working-class appeal and came from the better part of the state to easily win the primary. In doing so, she became the first woman to be nominated by either party for Governor of Ohio. Cranley had a female running-mate, as did Whaley. The Democrats'  nominee for Lt. Governor on their all female ticket is Cheryl Stephens, an African-American Cuyahoga County Councilwoman.

Husted is running again with DeWine and probably anticipates running again for the top job in 2026. Oddly enough though, the Lt. Governor recently accepted a paid job on an Ohio bank's corporate board. This sounds like a troublesome manner but apparently is completely legal.

 

Most polls have shown DeWine holding a comfortable lead over Whaley, at least without another right-wing option on the general election ballot. As expected, the Democrats are pressing hard on the bill DeWine recently signed to outlaw abortion after six weeks in Ohio with no exceptions for rape.  There was the horrible story a couple months back about a 10 year old girl who was raped and was taken to Indiana for an abortion. The details of that entire story remain somewhat murky. 

If the polls are correct however, it would show that Ohio voters are more concerned with economic or public safety issues and either like DeWine's record or fear the policies that Whaley and Democrats would seek to enact. Considering the fact that the Governor is running well ahead of the Republican Senate nominee, shows that he is likely to win a substantial amount of crossover votes. All things considered, DeWine is probably ahead by more than he should be, which either speaks to his enduring appeal to voters, even after past setbacks, or just how leery Ohio is of Democrats.

Speaking of the polls, Donald Trump has been looking at them. It was mentioned that he was unwilling to endorse a DeWine primary opponent even as he called for the incumbent to be primaried and insulted him. Very recently, Trump issued a written endorsement of the DeWine-Husted ticket, saying very nice things about them once again. So much for "Terrible person. Terrible Governor." Clearly, Trump sees the polls and wants to chalk up another endorsement win for the general election. This past weekend, Trump held a very bizarre rally in Ohio, where the U.S. Senate candidate appeared in a subservient role, and the entire event seemed to be filled with Q-Anon symbolism and themes. Governor DeWine, who accepted the recent Trump endorsement,skipped the Saturday night event though. He said he was busy watching his granddaughters' cross-country meet. That was a wise move.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

15 D (2 Safe, 8 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

10 R  (3 Safe, 5 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

21 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

18 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 5 Likely, 2 Leans)