New York Governor- Race of the Day

54 Days Until Election Day

New York Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

For roughly the last 15 years, politics in the Empire State has been extremely turbulent. Democrat Governors (the state has not elected a Republican to the office since 2002), have fallen victim to personal and political scandals, and legislative leaders of both parties have been convicted for corruption.

This year's race for Governor has had many twists and turns for a contest where the fundamentals continue to favor a Democrat. There is every reason to believe that he had his wish, former Governor Andrew Cuomo would today be running for a fourth term, an accomplishment that eluded his late father, who was defeated as Governor in 1994.

During his time in office, Cuomo achieved much of his liberal agenda, though he had his share of battles with activists on the left flank of his party as well. He also was dogged by allegations of unethical behavior in his Administration and for having a very abrasive personality, even by New York City politician standards. Still, it seemed like he was pretty secure politically, and his standing took a giant leap after New York became the epicenter of the Covid 19 pandemic in the early days. Cuomo's unique style of press conferences were aired nationally daily on cable television and people came to like what they saw from him during the crisis, and his leadership style was compared to that of then President Donald Trump. Some speculated that Cuomo would be a stronger Presidential nominee than Joe Biden and some even envisioned that the party could orchestrate some kind of switch to the New York Governor for that race.

In hindsight, it appears that plenty went wrong in the Cuomo Administration during this time in regards to deaths in nursing homes and other matters, and that the Governor and his team actively covered things up. Cuomo did make money on a book about leadership in crisis however. The main headlines came though regarding numerous allegations made by women who worked for Cuomo about continuous sexual harassment and unwanted touching by the Governor. Cuomo used to joke that he was a just single guy (divorced from the Kennedy Family) who liked to joke around with people about their love lives but he came to vehemently deny the allegations against him and targeted the women who were accusing him. The Democrat Attorney General of New York State launched an investigation. More stories came out about the Governor sexually assaulting a member of his security detail. Cuomo held press conferences showing him kissing all sorts of people on the cheek and saying it was normal because he was Italian-American. Former allies of the Governor cringed and many called for him to resign. Facing impeachment in Albany, Cuomo eventually gave in and resigned last August, but made no real admission of wrongdoing or accepted much in the way of responsibility. His younger brother Chris Cuomo, a star CNN news personality would lose his job in the aftermath, in part because as a journalist he worked to help his brother discredit a woman accusing him.

Even after he left office, Cuomo has made noise about still running for Governor in 2022 or challenging Attorney General Letitia James, whom he felt was unfair to him, but to the relief of party leaders did not do so. It was all a remarkable fall from grace (but in a much shorter time span than fellow New Yorker Rudy Giuliani) from being perhaps the most popular politician in the country to a pariah. Republicans would have liked the chance to run against Cuomo, believing he was the most vulnerable Democrat possible to face and some were a bit disappointed when he did leave office. Most recently, Cuomo has seemed to indicate that the FBI might be treating former President Donald Trump unfairly. Clearly, he has his own agenda in using that angle.

The resignation of the Governor elevated Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul as New York's first woman Governor. She had been Cuomo's runningmate and Lt. Governor for eight years but it was said the two were not close and barely communicated. From the Buffalo area, she had won an upset special election for a U.S. House seat in 2011 but when the district was redrawn, she lost the seat in 2012. She was picked for Lt. Governor in 2014 to bring gender and geographical balance to the Democrat ticket. Upon becoming a statewide candidate, Hochul moved significantly to the left.

Taking over a very large state, still enduring the pandemic was quite a task, especially for someone who may not have been kept too much in the loop of state affairs. Hochul first had to pick a Lt. Governor to replace her. She chose Brian Benjamin, a Caribbean-American State Senator from Harlem. The two officeholders received the endorsement of the party for the 2022 elections, but shortly thereafter, Benjamin resigned after being indicted by the Feds on campaign finance charges. This was not a proud moment for Hochul. She then selected Congressman Antonio Delgado to replace him as Lt. Governor and on the party ticket. Delgado, an Afro-Latino one time rapper had won a House seat in 2018 and was reelected in 2020 from a traditionally Republican area in the Hudson Valley.

While they had the state party endorsement (and that of the Working Families' Party) the Governor and Lt. Governor had two win separate primaries in late June. By this point, Hochul's political standing had stabilized. She was initially considered a potential sacrificial lamb for her party's nomination, especially when Attorney General Letitia James, who had gone after Cuomo, entered the race for Governor. As an African-American woman from New York City, James had a much more influential base of power than Hochul had from being Upstate and not particularly well-known before becoming Governor. In a surprise though, James dropped out of the race to seek reelection. There was speculation that her fundraising was lacking but she said she had important work to complete as the AG. One of those things is her office's civil suit against Donald Trump over his business activities.

Hochul was definitely going to be challenged by someone though. Bill de Blasio, the outgoing Mayor of New York City, who was quite unpopular at this point, mused about running but did not. He would seek a U.S. House seat this year but dropped out after it was clear that New Yorkers wanted no part of him in public office. The new Governor's primary opponents would wind up being Jumanee Williams, the African-American elected New York City Public Advocate, who ran to Hochul's left, and Long Island Congressman Tom Suozzi, who ran as a more moderate options. He had run for Governor back in 2006, when as a County Executive, he was considered a rising star in the state, but wound up getting crushed in the primary. Both Williams and Suozzi rolled out Latina runningmates who would be challenging Delgado in that primary.

The party endorsement and incumbency clearly mattered as Delgado took 61 percent and Governor Hochul did even better winning 68 percent. Williams bested Suozzi for second place by a 19-13 margin. The party united behind their standard bearer and the general election will be the first pure two person contest in 80 years after the state disqualified all the minor party candidates who were trying to run.

As for Republicans, the primary was a bit closer. George Pataki, the last GOP Governor of the state made some minor noise about attempting a comeback, but clearly the party had long since passed him by. Congressman Tom Reed was considered a possibility with some potential to appeal to moderates, but he was hampered by an allegation of an unwanted sexual advance back in 2017. The Congressman said he did not remember it happening but apologized because he might have been drunk at the time. He said he had since gone through rehab for alcoholism and wound up resigning his House seat early.

The frontrunner for the Republican nomination, who would go on to receive the endorsement of the State GOP and the Conservative Party was Lee Zeldin, who like Suozzi is also from Long Island. Zeldin was first elected to Congress in 2014 and is still in his early 40s. For a time, he was the only Jewish Republican in Congress. Currently, there is one other. A military veteran and considered a mainstream Republican, at the time of his arrival on Capitol Hill, Zeldin was viewed as someone to watch in the future. When Donald Trump, then of New York, became President, Zeldin embraced him politically and was one of the more frequent defenders of Trump on television. This did much to help Zeldin build recognition and support from elements within the party, but his whole political persona seems somewhat different than it was before Trump came on the scene. Suffice to say, Trump did not fare well in his native state as a whole during his two Presidential bids.

The support of party insiders for Zeldin was frustrating for other candidates seeking the Republican nomination. The most credible of which at first was Rob Astornio, the former Westchester County Executive who was the party's Gubernatorial nominee in 2014, when he ran better than expected against Cuomo, while still losing by double digits. Also in the race was Andrew Giuliani, the son of the former Mayor. Young Andrew had his first time in the limelight back in 1994, when at almost eight years old, he seemed to take the oath of office along with his father and then chimed in at various points during Rudy Giuliani's first Inaugural Address as Mayor. Andrew would go on to be a pro golfer and then held a relatively minor post in the Trump White House. While Republicans nationally once would have loved Rudy Giuliani to have run for Governor, he never did. Frankly, the fact that Andrew did was a bit of a joke. Besides his last name, he had no real qualifications for the post, and all of that might have been an even bigger source of frustration for Astorino, as he was attempting to be the alternative to Zeldin. Giuliani though would of course be able to raise money and receive endorsements from some of the figures associated with the die-hard MAGA crowd, as Rudy Giuliani, once considered "America's Mayor" because of his performance 21 years ago, was of course Donald Trump's attorney and lead barker for 2020 election denial and conspiracy theories, whether they were delivered sober or unsober. Rudy Giuliani is now considered to be in serious legal trouble himself. It is noteworthy that Trump did not make an endorsement in the primary.

A late entry to the field was wealthy businessman Harry Wilson, who had narrowly lost as the Republican nominee for State Comptroller in 2010. He presented himself as a somewhat more moderate electable candidate. The others, including Astorino were running as down the line conservatives, though Astorino was at least willing to be critical of the events of January 6, 2021. Some in the party appreciated the fact that Wilson could spend a lot of personal money on the contest. Opponents called the pro-choice Wilson a "RINO" and pointed out that he had advised Barack Obama at one point. In debates, Wilson tried to dodge the label of "Never Trumper" but had some heated exchanges with Zeldin.

Zeldin won the primary with 44 percent while Giuliani took 23 percent, because due to name recognition or a desire by some primary voters to "own the libs." Astorino was third with 18 percent and Wilson was last with 15 percent. The only Republican candidate for Lt. Governor was the choice of Zeldin. The nominee is Alison Esposito a tough talking and tough looking former New York City cop who recently retired as the NYPD Deputy Inspector.

It is clear that politics today shows some longtime Republicans now voting for Democrats, largely  because of what has become to the GOP under Trump, and some traditional Democrats more open to Trump style Republicans. This dynamic has the potential of course to both harm and hurt Zeldin in the general election. He once would have been very appealing in a race like this, where issues like inflation and crime are high on voters minds, but it could be that he is now too associated with Trump.

Republicans definitely feel like crime, especially as it affects New York City is a major issue. It is why Zeldin chose the runningmate that he did. Several weeks back at an Upstate event, a man came on stage when Zeldin was speaking and confronted him with a sharp object. The initial reports were that he tried to stab the Congressman with a knife, but the entire incident was caught on video. Zeldin was able to restrain the man, while others, including Lt. Governor candidate Esposito (wearing jeans and heels) quickly stepped in to subdue the perpetrator. The original narrative on the right was that it might have been an angry leftist trying to assassinate Zeldin, but it appears it may have just been a drunk down on his luck veteran, who did not even know he was at a political event. The man certainly deserves to be held responsible for his actions and get whatever help he needs. The whole incident coincidentally happened at an event where the Republican ticket was focusing on the issue of no-cash bond in New York and how it puts dangerous offenders back on the street within hours of arrest. That is indeed what initially happened to the man who threatened Zeldin, but he was later arrested on federal charges for assaulting a Member of Congress.

With all that has happened recently in New York as it relates to state government, Zeldin ought to be at least somewhat competitive in this race against an incumbent who has never won a statewide election on her own. One recent September poll shows Hochul ahead by six, giving Republicans some hope, while another shows the incumbent up by 15. The truth is probably somewhere in between. 

Will wedge social issues overtake or compete with economic or crime related ones this cycle? That will be the key to determining the outcome or the closeness of many races. While there are some in New York who will appreciate Zeldin's stance on issues such as opposing gun control and overturning Roe vs. Wade, the data will suggest that in New York, those issues, especially the latter, will not be helpful to a conservative candidate. While Republican nominees in red states are embracing their Pro-Life views, Zeldin is trying to avoid the issue.

Kathy Hochul has her political vulnerabilities and many New Yorkers might see a lot of things they would like to see changed in the state, but it would be a shocker if this race is very close on Election Day.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

15 D (2 Safe, 8 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

  9 R  (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

21 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans)