North Carolina U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

52 Days Until Election Day

North Carolina U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Republicans absolutely have to hold this seat if they are to take control of the U.S. Senate. If they fall short, it would likely mean that Democrats have had a very good Senate cycle nationwide. Right now, the evidence suggests that the Republican has a slight edge in the Southern state, but the contest is not that far away from being a Tossup.

Democrats have hoped to win tightly contested Senate elections in the past, but North Carolina has been  one state where they have failed to do so. With the exception of a surprise win in 2008, on the (tar) heels of a strong national year for Democrats, Republicans have won every other Senate race this century. All of the races were competitive and won by the GOP candidate with under 55 percent of the vote. The most recent election in 2020 was very close and Democrats looked poised to win it, but their nominee had an extramarital affair come to light and the Republican incumbent held on to win 49-47.

Incumbent Senator Richard Burr is retiring after three terms. He even indicated during his last re-election campaign that he was running his last race last race and would enter the private sector after his service, effectively making himself a lame duck. That was pretty rare for a politician to do so and Burr kept his word. The last few years though have seen the Senator be linked to allegations of insider trading. Although the Justice Department decided not to charge him, this would have been a sticky political situation if he were a candidate. Burr also made headlines in early 2021 when he was one of seven Republican Senators to vote to convict Donald Trump after his second impeachment trial. This earned him the ire of the state party and he likely would have faced a major primary challenge if he were still a candidate. Perhaps, knowing he would not have to face primary voters gave him the freedom to cast that vote of conscience.

One of the early names mentioned as a potential Republican candidate was North Carolina native Lara Trump, the daughter in law of the former President, who had been very involved in his political activities. Some worried that Trump could win a primary on the basis of her last name but would not be a strong candidate in the general election. She would not run though and instead would support the candidate her father in law endorsed. Ted Budd, a former gun range owner was a two term Congressman, who was not very well known statewide when he entered the Senate race, after a Mar-A-Lago meeting with Donald Trump. Two months later, he officially received the coveted endorsement and immediately became the party's frontrunner. Reportedly, the endorsement came as a surprise at a North Carolina Republican even, when Trump made the announcement without Budd being made aware it was happening.

Up until that point, two other Republicans looked like they would have had the edge over Budd in the initial May 2022 primary. Mark Walker, a pastor served three terms in Congress, before not running in 2020 after his district was re-drawn to favor a Democrat. An Evangelical Christian, Walker received several prominent conservative endorsements early on. The overall frontunner though was former Governor Pat McCrory. As the longtime Mayor of Charlotte, he had been seen as a pro-business Republican who was not identified with hot button social issues. He narrowly lost his first race for Governor as the Republican nominee in the tough GOP year of 2008, but four years later took the job by a solid margin.

As Governor, McCrory was seen as having been pushed very far to the right by the Republican state legislature who pushed a series of bills popular with conservative activists, such as a controversial one regarding transgendered people and bathrooms. McCrory's popularity took a toll. In 2016, as Donald Trump narrowly carried the state and Senator Burr won reelection by six points, the Governor was unseated by a highly touted Democrat by just over 10,000 votes. For all their difficulties in Senate elections, North Carolina Democrats have been more successful in winning contests for Governor. McCrory initially refused to concede and requested a recount. When that did not work out in his favor, he conceded in early December.

McCrory was leading the 2022 Senate polls as he attempted a comeback largely because of his name identification advantage. He had to overcome the fact that he had lost reelection as Governor six years early and in fact had lost two out of three statewide general elections. McCrory was not hurt as much as Walker was by Trump's endorsement, as the former Governor did not seen to seek it. Before re-entering politics, McCrory had been one of ABC News' Sunday Morning panelists and in that role, he had been very harsh in criticism of Trump, especially after the defeated President went even further than he had done after the Gubernatorial loss, in trying to dispute the results.

Walker was the subject of rumors for months that he would drop out because Trump wanted Budd to have a clear field against McCrory. A large number of lesser known candidates were also on the ballot (as would be the case for Democrats as well.) Some suggested Walker run for the House again in a district where he would have a very good chance of winning, but he insisted he would stay in the race and despite not receiving the endorsement, was a loyal supporter of Trump. 

Even with some consternation over Budd's debate performances and concerns that he would not be the strongest potential nominee, the primary turned out not to be close. The Trump endorsed candidate took 59 percent, well above the margin to avoid a runoff. McCrory took 25 percent, while Walker finished in third place with just nine percent. Had Trump not endorsed Budd, Walker would probably be a solid favorite to become a U.S. Senator right now. While the former Governor offered his support to the current Congressman in the general election, McCrory did not endorse Budd when he conceded the race. He said that he now knew his political career was over and he questioned whether he would be able to even remain a Republican.

Democrats had several candidates declare for the race, but efforts were made by the party to clear the field for the candidate they wanted. Cheri Beasley won statewide office in 2008 when she was elected to the Court of Appeals. With that victory, she became the first African-American female, who was not an appointed incumbent, to win statewide. A Democrat Governor then put Beasley on the State Supreme Court and she won another statewide win in 2014. Five years later, she was appointed Chief Justice. In seeking a full term to that role in 2020, Beasley was defeated by a Republican by 401 votes. While that margin was close and she had won twice before, it is usually not a good sign for a candidate running for higher office to have lost their most recent race, especially as an incumbent, which was the case with McCrory as well. I also wonder just how tuned in the average North Carolina voter might have been to judicial elections. 

By the time of the primary in May, all of Beasley's opponents had either stopped campaigning or were not mounting much of one to begin with. She took 81 percent. While the raw votes she received surpassed those won by Budd in a more competitive primary, the overall Republican turnout was higher by nearly 150, 000.

With the recent history of white Democrats losing Senate elections, it will be interesting to see if an African-American woman can fare better. The party did have a black nominee who lost twice to Republican Jesse Helms in competitive elections. Her presence on the ballot could potentially bring about a higher than usual black turnout in the state. While Beasley is seen as personally likable, Republicans believe that she also comes across as too liberal for the state.

Budd is running as a boilerplate MAGA era Republican candidate. While he does not have a politically flammable past as some other Republican Senate candidates elsewhere, he is still seen as very tied to Trump. He has sided a bit with the former President on foreign policy matters that differ with what had been traditional Republican policy position. Budd had issued praise for Vladimir Putin before he had invaded Ukraine. McCrory tried to use this against the candidate in the primary, but to little avail. Nonetheless, it is hard to see how a more traditional Republican would not be doing better currently against Beasley than Budd is believed to be. 

Democrats have introduced the slogan "This Budd is Not For You" against their opponent and as can be expected focusing on issues like abortion. This week, the North Carolina nominee said he supported the efforts of South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham to introduce a bill to ban abortions nationally after 15 weeks of pregnancy with some exceptions. Many Republicans who have been campaigning on the concept of the issue being left to the states are upset that Graham is attempting to make this a national issue.

Right now, the polls in this race are close. Some ones sanctioned by Democrats show Beasley very narrowly ahead. Republican sponsored polls show Budd narrowly ahead. The one officially non-partisan one, conducted this month show Budd ahead by a 49-46 margin. That is probably an accurate representation of where the vote it, but it should be noted that the same poll had Budd ahead by eight points right after the primaries.

This is definitely a race to watch closely, and it took a lot of consideration to not call it a Tossup as of today. I believe that a state that Trump beat Biden in (though barely) is more likely than not to elect a Republican Senator during a midterm election of President Biden, who while he has seen his standing improve, is still under water in North Carolina.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

11 D (6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

12 R (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

47 D (36 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

41 R (29 Holdover, 6 Safe. 3 Likely, 3 Leans)