North Dakota U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

51 Days Until Election Day

North Dakota U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Gone are the days when North Dakota would regularly send populist Democrats to Congress, even as the state had moved Republican on the Presidential level. The GOP now dominates all aspects of North Dakota politics. This has had an effect on the Democrats also. Recently, many within the state party pressured the nominee of their at large Congressional seat, a rare Pro-Life Democrat, to exit the race, so they could back a pro-choice Independent, a one-time Miss America.

The Senate race is not going to hold much suspense, although the conservative vote will be split to some extent. Republican incumbent John Hoeven is seeking a third term and he has never won with less than 76 percent of the vote. At the beginning of this century, Hoeven was serving as President of the state owned bank, a unique feature of North Dakota. Very popular in that role, he was recruited to run for office by both major parties. The one time Democrat decided to run for Governor as a Republican in 2000 and won by 10 points, followed by two reelection victories in which he also received in excess of 70 percent. Out of all Governors and U.S. Senators in the post-World War II era, Hoeven has to be among those who have had the easiest victories throughout his career.

While serving a third term as Governor, Hoeven ran for an open U.S Senate seat in 2010 and became the first member of his party to win a Senate seat in 30 years. His banking background makes him among the wealthiest Senators. Hoeven is a reliable conservative vote for his party but he tends to keep a low-profile on Capitol Hill and does not seek out national attention. 

For generations, Democrats in North Dakota have been officially aligned with the one time powerful Nonpartisan League, though they are all basically just Democrats. The June primary for Senate was won with 77 percent by college professor Katrina Christiansen She is arguing for change in the state and that Hoeven takes the people of it for granted, but will have a tough time being competitive in North Dakota as a liberal Democrat.

Most likely though, Christiansen will at least finish in second place. Rick Becker, a Republican State Representative has field to get on the ballot as an Independent. He initially was running as a primary challenger to Hoeven but dropped out, after the state convention endorsed the incumbent. At the time, Becker he said he was done with politics. Hoeven took 77 percent of the vote in the primary against an oil worker. That is a sign of some displeasure among members of Hoeven's party because despite the easy win, that is basically around the same number he typically wins general elections with. Becker is running to Hoeven's right, particularly pointing out to a vote in favor of the infrastructure bill, which Hoeven insisted would be good for North Dakotans.  The Independent challenger is saying that the conservative Senator is too willing to try to work with Democrats or attempt to be friendly with them. Becker is also a plastic surgeon. I wonder if he is willing to operate on Democrats at all.

Even if Becker wins a substantial number of right-wing protest vote, it is unlikely to have much impact on the final result. Hoeven will win, although he might have to settle for finishing in the 60s.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

11 D (6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

13 R (7 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

47 D (36 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

42 R (29 Holdover, 7 Safe. 3 Likely, 3 Leans)