Oklahoma U.S. Senate A- Race of the Day

46 Days Until Election Day

Oklahoma U.S. Senate- A

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Oklahoma is the one state this cycle where voters will choose both U.S. Senators. This first race is the regular six year contest that features Republican James Lankford seeking a second full term. He was first elected though via a special election in 2014, when a Republican Senator resigned two years early due to health concerns. A similar situation is now playing out in the state once again as the soon to be 88 year old senior Senator is leaving his post four years early.

The Sooner State is very reliably Republican and it will be hard for any Democrat to win anything this year, especially at the federal level. A particular irony of these races are that Oklahoma Democrats nominated two women, who are unrelated, but both named Horn as their Senate nominees. If you will forgive the bad pun, Okie Democrats were apparently feeling quite Horn-y. I know. I know. The first names of the women are Madison and Kendra which makes them sound like they could have been part of the "Girls Next Door" for depraved Democrat, the late Hugh Hefner. 

Madison has an even tougher battle than Kendra though in 2022, as she is facing the sitting incumbent. In this case, cybersecurity professional Madison Horn describes herself as a "conservative Democrat." Very few in the state or her party had heard of her when she announced her candidacy, but perhaps the last name she shares with the recent one-term Congresswoman seeking the other seat worked to her advantage. At just 32 years of age and a member of the politically important Cherokee Nation in her state, seems to be positioning herself more as a moderate than a conservative. She finished first in the June primary with 37 percent in a field that featured five other candidate. Four of those runners up wound up with double digits and advancing to the runoff was attorney Jason Bollinger, who is apparently a couple years younger than Madison Horn. An openly gay candidate, Bollinger positioned himself as a liberal Democrat. Earlier in the contest, Bollinger and others tried to prevent Horn from appearing on the ballot. as she had only recently registered to vote in Oklahoma, after apparently living elsewhere, but the Board of Elections sides with her. There were nearly two months between the primary and the run-off, and Horn prevailed by 31 points in August. Republicans competed in a runoff for the other Oklahoma Senate seat. Something tells me that Kendra Horn probably would have preferred not having to share a general election ballot with another candidate for the same office with the same last name. 

Senator Lankford, a former Congressman, had a wide political network, related to his activities running a Baptist Church Summer Camp and it helped him win statewide in Oklahoma in 2014. On Capitol Hill, he votes in line with conservatives, but has at times had difficulty reconciling his political support for Donald Trump with a stated desire to see more civility in politics and culture. He was speaking on the floor of the Senate on January 6, 2021, when the chamber was first evacuated, and that caused him to change his intention of voting no on certifying the election of Joe Biden. This might have angered Trumpists in his state as primary challengers emerged. A State Senator considered the most formidable, dropped out of his bid to primary Lankford and instead switched to the other Senate race when that seat opened up. The incumbent though still faced a challenge from two opponents, including Jackson Lahmeyer, a politically active pastor, who ran as full MAGA. Both candidates wanted Trump's endorsement, but the former President stayed on the sidelines, likely because he was angry at Lankford for voting to certify the election and because it was clear that Lahmeyer was unlikely to be nominated, even with an endorsement. The Evangelical challenger did receive several Trumpist endorsements though, including that of former New York City Mayor and one-time cross-dressing enthusiast Rudy Giuliani. Lankford prevailed 68-26.

Polls and conventional wisdom are showing that Lankford's race against Madison Horn will not be as close as the contest between Kendra Horn and her opponent, Congressman Markwayne Mullin. Senate seat "A" will apparently be nowhere near as close as the Gubernatorial contest looks in the most recent poll either. Republicans will likely win both Senate seats in this conservative state without too much difficulty, but Lankford can be expected to win by 20 points or more.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

11 D (6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

15 R (8 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

47 D (36 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

44 R (29 Holdover, 8 Safe. 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)