Oklahoma Governor- Race of the Day

47 Days Until Election Day

Oklahoma Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Leans Republican

This is a rare example of a race where one recent poll has moved my classification of a race one step closer to being closer than what I would have originally anticipated. Normally, I would avoid that, as a single poll could be an outlier, but this particular survey seems to also have produced anticipated results in all other statewide races. It could be that first term Republican Governor Kevin Stitt is having very unique political concerns this year in the Sooner State.

Stitt, a member of the Cherokee Nation, and thus the first Tribal member to ever be a Governor, was elected Chief Executive four years ago after outpolling better known opponents in a very crowded primary field to finish second in the initial voting. Then, the wealthy mortgage company executive, running as a conservative outsider, easily beat a more moderate establishment figure to capture the Republican nomination. In the general election, Stitt defeated a former Attorney General, considered perhaps the last remaining Democrat who could be competitive by 12 points. 

The most news Stitt made as Governor was when during the first days of the Covid-19 outbreak, as other states were issuing shutdowns, the Oklahoman posted a photo of him dining out with his family. As the situation got worse, he later deleted the photo from his Twitter account. In July of 2020, Stitt became the first Governor to test positive for Covid.

Oklahoma, once staunchly Democrat at the state level, is among the states that has become nearly exclusively Republican. Stitt really should not have to worry about winning a second term, and on a couple of occasions, he has seemed to make it known that he might be interested in running for President. However, there seem to be some internal divisions among Oklahoma Republicans, perhaps related to the fact that the current Governor seemingly came out of nowhere politically to win in 2018.

In the June primary, Stitt won 69 percent of the vote, more than enough to avoid a runoff, but a number that indicates that there was a sizeable segment of the party that wanted to move in a different direction. While Stitt was seen as very conservative, he had two major primary. Joel Kinstel, the director of the Oklahoma Department of Veterans Affairs, a post that is apparently not appointed by the Governor, did not run an ideologically based campaign as much as he claimed there had been mismanagement and corruption under Stitt's Administration. He took 14 percent, while Mark Sherwood, a naturopathic physician, took 13 percent. Sherwood did run as a staunchly right-wing alternative to the incumbent, and was part of several Oklahoma Republican candidates who attempted to run to the right of the frontrunner in their races.

The situation for Democrats was also interesting. Beginning in 2014, Joy Hofmeister was twice elected statewide as Oklahoma's Superintendent of Public Instruction, as a Republican. In October 2021, she surprised many by announcing her candidacy for Governor and saying she would be running as a Democrat. Hofmeister described herself as a moderate who could appeal to a cross-section of the state. While she said she was disillusioned by the Republican Party's shift towards Donald Trump, she promised that she would not alter he positions. It appears the main issue behind her desire to challenge Stitt, and one of the major issues internally in Oklahoma was related to the Supreme Court McGirt decision related to whether crimes committed on tribal land in Oklahoma was subject to Native American jurisdiction or federal authority. Hofmeister said that Stitt had "politicized" the decision, but I do not have the time to completely delve into the matter.

While Hofmeister had differences with Stitt on education policy matters over the past four years, she has now moved a bit to the left on social issues as well. She became the Democrat nominee for Governor despite some in the party not trusting her and her party conversion as sincere. Clearly, she had determined that it made more sense to run as a Democrat than attempt to mount a primary challenge. Another candidate, who had first sought to take on Stitt in the GOP primary was former State Senator Ervin Yen, an Asian-American physician, originally motivated by the Governor's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. He dropped out of the primary though and is now on the ballot as an Independent. Along with a Libertarian nominee, there are two recent Republican officeholders challenging the incumbent Governor in the general election.

First though, Hofmeister had to win her primary. That was not too difficult as she won with 61 percent against former State Senator Connie Johnson. She had been the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and had sought the party's nomination for Governor in 2018, when she lost by a nearly identical margin to this year. The African-American politician considers herself a Democratic Socialist and claimed to be the true progressive choice. Oklahoma Democrats either thought she was too far to the left or understood that Hofmeister would have a much better chance in the general election.

Some early polls had Stitt well ahead in the general election which did not come as much surprise. This was a race I would have called as "Likely Republican" until about a week ago because while the Republican nominee had a clear advantage, it could not be ignored that his opponent was basically a Republican running as a Democrat, who had even more political success statewide herself. 

Very recently, the Sooner Poll, conducted in the early part of September came out and it shows the incumbent ahead by a statistically insignificant 44-43 margin. That led to many people being surprised. This poll also includes the names of the other candidates on the ballot. The Libertarian is polling at 3 percent and Yen, running as an Independent is at 4 percent. There were over 30 percent of Republican primary voters who opposed Stitt, so he does not have a completely unified party behind him. Some of the candidates he endorsed for other statewide offices failed to win the nominations in their races as well. If the final vote is close, the votes going to the third party and Independent candidates could be crucial. This poll shows the Governor with an anemic 47 percent favorability rating.

Now, I happen to think that Stitt is ahead by more than one point. However, it is hardly to automatically dismiss this poll as being an overly Democrat friendly outlier.  The folks at the Sooner Poll, commissioned by tv stations in Tulsa, also took surveys of the other statewide races, and the Republicans, as expected are well ahead. The most high profile of these races are the two that Oklahoma is having for the U.S. Senate, with both a Republican incumbent running and an open GOP seat as well due to an early retirement. Republicans are ahead in those races, with the incumbent more so than the open seat, at just about what conventional wisdom would have seemed to dictate. So, this poll does not seem "weird" in any way besides showing a much closer race for Governor than the case should be, considering Oklahoma being a very red state.

 

Before anybody decides this is a Tossup though or that Hofmeister is in the drivers' seat to win, there has to be more evidence showing a true battle at place. It could be that the Governor's campaign will now amp up their effort to try to tie their opponent to Joe Biden and national Democrats, even though she is probably one of the few Democrat nominees in the country who can probably say they did not vote for Biden. I cannot find a source as to if she has said who she voted for in 2020, but she still was a member of the GOP then.

The bottom line is that Stitt still has to be considered the favorite because this is Oklahoma we are talking about, but this new poll means that nobody should overlook a potential upset, based on local, not national, issues.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

15 D (2 Safe, 8 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

11 R  (3 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

21 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

19 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans)