Oregon Governor- Race of the Day

44 Days Until Election Day

Oregon Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Tossup (R)

Perhaps the most intriguing race of the entire cycle is going on in Oregon. This is one of a very small number of contests that is a true three-way race. Furthermore, the Independent candidate could actually win. I believe it is actually conceivable that there could be any number of first to third place finishes for all three of the top candidates. Also, all the candidates are women. This has to be the first major statewide general election race in history to feature all female candidates.

Republicans have been quiet frustrated with results in Oregon before. They have not won the Governorship since an incumbent was reelected in 1978. For the past twenty years, each race for Governor, including one two year special election term, has been fairly close. Nonetheless, the Democrats have won each one of them. In some of those cases, an Independent or third party candidate has prevented the victorious Democrat from winning a majority of the vote, and has perhaps also cost the Republican nominee the election. This time, an Independent candidate, who happens to be a longtime former state lawmaker, could take enough votes from her former party to sway the election to the Republican. Or perhaps, enough moderate Republicans could vote for the Independent to give the election to an otherwise vulnerable Democrat. Then again, the Independent could win herself.

Current Democrat Governor Kate Brown is term-limited and cannot seek reelection. She became Governor nine years ago, moving up from Secretary of State, after her predecessor was caught up in a scandal, and then Brown won a 2016 special election and a full term in 2018. These days, Governor Brown has one of the lowest approval ratings among Governors in the country, despite opponents failing on attempts to have her face recall at the polls. There are numerous complaints about mismanagement in her Administration, as well as what is seen as voter discontent over taxes, the economy, and crime.

Brown is the first openly bisexual Governor in American history and Democrats have nominated a candidate to replace her who would be among those to become the nation's first openly lesbian Governor (Maura Healey in Massachusetts is a heavy favorite to win this year.) Tina Kotek has stepped down as State House Speaker in order to run for Governor. She was also the first openly gay woman to be a Speaker of the House. Kotek is very much considered on the left in her party, and further so than the incumbent Governor. It seems like half the state filed to run for Governor this cycle, for the May primary in both parties. Kotek became the strong favorite to win the nomination, once one candidate dropped out to run for another statewide post and when New York Times journalist Nicholas Kristof, a prominent national columnist, was disqualified from running after a protracted battle. While he came to Oregon as a child, Kristof had spent twenty years living and voting in New York before returning to the state to run for Governor. Kristof criticized the state party's political establishment for keeping him off the ballot but has agreed to support the nominee.

In the primary, Kotek took 56 percent, while the closest of the 14 runners-up, State Treasurer Tobias Read took 32 percent. While certainly far from a conservative, Read was considered a bit more to the center than Kotek and had experience winning statewide. Some in the party feared that Kotek had taken positions too far to the left in a state that dissatisfied with the status quo and was also perhaps lacking in some campaigning skills.

 

Republicans held a 19 candidate primary. The hopefuls ranged from conservative firebrands to those who emphasized their moderate ideologies and potential electability. The eventual winner, one of five women who ran as Republicans, sort of fit in the middle of the GOP spectrum. Former State House Minority Leader (and thus Kotek's counterpart in Salem), Christine Drazan was seen as acceptable to most conservatives but not someone viewed as being on the political fringe. She took about 23 percent of the vote in the mega-crowded primary, and finished five points ahead of Bob Tiernan, who had served in the Oregon House in the 1990s, and later on as State Republican Chairman. He, like Drazan, also positioned himself as a mainstream conservative. The third place finisher with 11 percent was Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam, who ran as a more MAGA candidate. He had received some headlines leading up to the primary after admitting that he and his wife were once members of a swingers group. Other candidates in the field included the moderate 2016 GOP nominee, Dr. Bud Pierce. whose wife was killed after being struck by a car shortly after he entered the race. He finished in fifth place with nine percent. Another former Gubernatorial nominee, from way back in 1998 when he lost handily, anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore was defeated in the primary, 12 years after a previous comeback attempt for Governor. This time around he finished in 8th place with about 4 percent.

While a Libertarian and Constitution Party nominee will also be on the ballot, the major twist in this race is the presence of former State Senator Betsy Johnson, a bespectacled former helicopter pilot in her early 70s. She served over twenty years in the state legislature as a Democrat before resigning her State Senate seat to run for Governor as an Independent, after Democrats moved to punish her. Johnson claimed that both parties had been taken over by the fringes and that voters deserved another choice. The candidate has positioned herself as supportive of the pro-choice position on abortion (while Republican Drazan is supported by Pro-Life groups) but more fiscally conservative than Democrat Kotek or current Governor Brown. Johnson has been able to raise a surprising amount of money for an Independent candidate, helped in large part by Nike honcho Phil Knight. She among her early endorsers a former Democrat Governor and former Republican U.S. Senator. More recently, she was endorsed by current Democrat Congressman Kurt Schrader after he was defeated in a primary by a more liberal challenger. Johnson is also backed by the moderate, now former Republican who was the party's most recent Gubernatorial nominee in 2018, as well as Bridget Barton, a conservative political consultant who was the fourth place finisher from this year's GOP field. There may be some sour grapes involved there on her behalf. She said that Johnson will be more of a fighter against Democrats than the Republican nominated Drazan. The Independent also has won the endorsement of Oregon's Fraternal Order of Police, and not surprisingly of former Democrat Andrew Yang, the leader of the new fledgling Forward Party.

Needless to say, there are a lot of intricacies to this three-way race, many of which likely involve local Oregon issues, which I cannot claim to have any real knowledge of.  Up until a couple of weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was that the state was blue enough that Kotek would still find a way to squeak through to a first place finish. Indeed, that may happen, but polls and pundits now see a true Tossup. It is still anticipated that Johnson will probably finish third, although with a vote at least within the 20 percent range, but the situation seems unpredictable enough that she could do even better. Democrats will caution that a vote for Johnson is a vote to elect the Pro-Life Republican and put the legality of abortion in Oregon at risk, although in likelihood, that probably would not be the result of a GOP win there.

Drazan would almost certainly be too conservative to win a traditional statewide general election in Oregon. The make-up of the Republican Party today is such that Johnson would have had little chance of winning a Republican nomination, if she had switched parties, even if she could probably easily beat Kotek in a traditional general election. The Democrat has political history and the leftward tilt of the state on her side, but she also has to bear the burden of the unpopularity of the current Governor and might wind up being a bit too liberal during a midterm election that might favor Republicans. 

The winner of this race will probably be held under 40 percent of the vote. Again, anything can happen, but as of today, my guess is that Johnson plays spoiler, a la a couple recent Maine Gubernatorial elections, and Drazan barely beats Kotek, in what would perhaps be the only Republican Gubernatorial pickup anywhere this year.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

15 D (2 Safe, 8 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

12 R  (3 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

21 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

20 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)