Pennsylvania U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

40 Days Until Election Day

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Tossup (D)

Before I have to get into the unfortunate Senate campaign in Pennsylvania, I will use the opportunity in discussing the state to point out that the Chicago Cubs won eight all games this season against the Philadelphia Phillies. That is quite the baseball oddity, with the Cubs long being out of contention this season and rebuilding with the Phillies in position to get into the Playoffs. Somehow, the Cubs pulled off the season sweep, all post All-Star Break. Philly fans should be despondent.

Moving on, I do not at all envy the people of Pennsylvania as they will see one of two deeply flawed candidates, both personally and politically become a freshman U.S. Senator. The Demcorat, Lt Governor John Fetterman, and the Republican television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz are both unconventional political candidates and whomever is off to the Senate will probably dislike the job. Maybe there is some consolation in that.

This race is open because Republican Pat Toomey is retiring after two terms. Still just 60 years old, Toomey's desire to return to the private sector disappointed some Republicans nationally as it was clear that defending his seat would be a challenge for the party. The outgoing Senator has had an interesting political career. He was first elected to the U.S. House 24 years ago and was considered a staunch fiscal conservative. In 2004, Toomey nearly won the Republican Senate nomination, but fell short against incumbent Arlen Specter, whom national party leaders supported because Toomey was considered too conservative to win statewide. Six years later though, Toomey attempted a comeback and with political calculations in mind, the moderate Specter switched parties to become a Democrat and moved even further to the left. He was promptly defeated though by ungrateful Democrats in their primary anyway, and Toomey narrowly won an open seat during the strong GOP year of 2010. Six years later, Toomey was in a battle to the end against a Democrat opponent, and considered an underdog according to some polls. As Donald Trump surprisingly carried the state, Toomey held on to win a second term with 49 percent of the vote.

During his time in the Senate, Toomey became to be seen more as an establishment figure than the conservative outsider he had once been. He had been willing to work on a bill to extend background checks on gun sales for instance. While he typically supported Donald Trump as President with his votes in the Senate, Toomey said the election was fair after Trump lost and then became one of seven Republicans to vote to convict Trump after his second impeachment trial. This earned the ire of MAGA world, but by this time, the Senator had already announced he would not be seeking reelection.

Long lines of candidates in both parties jumped into the race. Not all of them would stick around until the May 17 primary, including the one Republican to run as a Never Trumper. Several other candidates angled for Trump's support and in February, he delivered his endorsement and a big boost to the campaign of Sean Parnell, a U.S. Army veteran, who narrowly lost a U.S. House race in 2020 to incumbent Democrat Connor Lamb, himself then a likely Senate contender. It looked like Parnell would be in great shape to win the primary with Trump's support, but he suspended his campaign in November of 2021 after losing a child custody case in court to his estranged wife. She had accused the candidate of having physically abused her and the children. Trump was said to be upset that Parnell was going through the situation, but was willing to stand by his endorsement before the Senate campaign ended.

This vacuum on the Republican side enabled two other major candidates to jump into what was already a crowded field. One was David McCormick, a wealthy businessman, who had been an Under Secretary of the Treasury during the last couple years of the George W. Bush Administration. McCormick had lengthy ties to the GOP establishment but as a Senate candidate ran as a pro-Trump conservative and received many prominent endorsements. Many in the party liked that he would be able to devote his own funds to the campaign.

The biggest name though was that of Dr. Oz. A one-time cardiologist and surgeon, he had started to make television appearances related to medical matters, and he became a protege of Oprah Winfrey and frequent guest on her former show. Eventually, Oz would have his own daily syndicated medical based talkshow where one of his frequent topics was healthy bowel habits. He was also criticized by some for his support of medical theories seen as non-reliable and allegations related to involvement in weight loss product scams. The first clue that he had a political future in mind might have occurred when he sided with anti-lockdown activists during the early days of the Covid pandemic. During a television appearance, he made an awkward comment suggesting that the risk of children dying in schools was worth it because only 2-3 percent might die. He later claimed he misspoke and apologized.

Oz also had several other aspects to his candidacy that made him somewhat unique. Born in Ohio and raised in Delaware, Oz was and some stay is still living in New Jersey, despite running for the Senate in neighboring Pennsylvania, where his wife is from. The doctor says he does also own a home in Pennsylvania, and he appears to own a lot of homes, and was unable to remember precisely how many, which has become fodder for Democrats. Many in the party and his current opponent are also pushing the carpetbagger aspect, which is hardly surprising. However, some of the people on television doing so, such as Paul Begala, almost certainly did not say the same thing when Democrat Hillary Clinton ran for the Senate in 2000 from New York, a state where she had less ties than Oz does in Pennsylvania.

The son of immigrants is also a Turkish citizen and spent two years after college serving in the Turkey's Army in order to maintain his dual citizenship. This is something that opponents in both parties attempted to use against him. In 2018, Oz did not vote in New Jersey's primary, but did vote in the Turkish election that year, countering his claim that he had never been involved in Turkish political matters. While the candidate has said he is not devoutly religious, Oz would make history by becoming the first Muslim to serve in the U.S. Senate. Currently, he is sharing a ticket with a Republican Gubernatorial nominee who in the past has said that Islam is not compatible with serving in elective office. Frankly, I have to look at the bright side that many pro-Trump Republicans, who have been vocally anti-Islam for years, are willing to look past it in Oz's case.

The candidate has also changed his position on issues like abortion. On his television show, he had said that his medical experience and expertise led him to a pro-choice position, but as a first time political candidate, the Republican is now saying that he is opposed to abortion and that life begins at conception. While he has said he supports exceptions for rape and the life of the mother, it is a clear flip-flop, though something that is not unheard of on the issue, in either party. He has also changed on the matter of global warming from the time he was a celebrity pal of Oprah to the time he was running in a Republican primary. Many of Oz's past friends have denounced him (though Oprah has tried to remain above the fray.)

Name recognition aside, Oz's early campaign days appeared awkward and disjointed. Nonetheless, he received a boost when he became the second candidate in this primary to have been endorsed by Trump. This move split many of Trump's allies, some of whom were actively backing McCormick. Trump pretty much explained that he was going with Oz because he was a celebrity. The former President compared Oz's past television success as being "like a poll" and proof that people liked him. Clearly, Trump likes celebrity candidates like himself and the idea of someone "being from television" is very appealing to him, just as being a football player has been for other endorsements. When Trump was a Presidential candidate he did appear on Oz's show and faced a friendly interviewer. In claiming to have looked over Trump's sparsely available medical records, Oz proclaimed him extremely healthy, although he agreed the candidate could stand to lose some weight.

 

One strong supporter of Oz was Fox News personality Sean Hannity who used his tv slot to talk up Oz and raise questions about other Republican candidates in Pennsylvania. Late in the campaign, momentum began to be seen as belonging to conservative political activist Kathy Barnette, an outspoken African-American who billed herself as an Army veteran. She backed up her Pro-Life views by pointing out that she was the product of a rape. In 2020, she ran for Congress and lost by a wide margin in a normally Democrat friendly district, and never conceded the race, though she later claimed she did. That exposure helped Barnette get more opportunities to appear on cable television, where she became more well-known. Initially, she lagged behind as a Senate candidate, but many came to like her backstory and felt that being a black woman would make it harder for the left to attack. Impressively and somewhat surprisingly, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst endorsed her campaign. Despite not having received his endorsement for this race, Barnette was one of Trump's defenders on the claim that the 2020 election had been stolen from him. The other major candidates tried to take a middle ground, but tried to make it sound like they were siding with Trump's concerns before their own primary. Barnette, who stressed her Christian identity, also ran as part of a loosely affiliated alliance with eventual Gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano. There is some irony that the Mastriano campaign, which courted white nationalists, wanted to run on a ticket with a black woman.

Media, including people like Hannity though started looking more deeply into Barnette's background. While she had served in the Army Reserves and National Guard, her military service did not appear to be as she had suggested, and she was unwilling to provide documentation to back her previous claims. She also had quite a Twitter history in which she had years earlier insisted that Barack Obama was a Muslim, Islam was similar to Satanism, homosexuality was always unacceptable, and transgender people were "demonic." 

It is more than possible that those statements and others might have brought more supporters to her campaign cause but others worried that if she were to become the Republican nominee, she would have the hardest time winning, compared to McCormick and Oz, who were both also taking stances that might be problematic for general elections, but seen as more salvageable than Barnette. Trump praised Barnette's campaign  but pointed out she had lost a race and that her past statements on would make it impossible to win a general election. Hannity said similar things. This was some of the greatest irony of the 2022 cycle, considering how much Trumpworld insisted that controversial things he said on Twitter were either irrelevant or a plus. In the case of Barnette, they were willing to "not own" the Left. Towards the end of the primary, Barnette seemed to insist that she would not be able to support any of the other candidates if they defeated her.

Electability concerns were also at play with Oz and some thought that McCormick would be the safest bet. Trump continued to push Oz though, saying that McCormick could not be fully trusted and pointing out that he had turned down an offer to join the Trump Administration.McCormick's wife had been a Deputy National Security Advisor for the Trump White House.

 

The race looked like it would come down to the wire between the two and McCormick ran ads calling Oz a "liberal" and a "RINO." On Primary Night, McCormick held a lead in the vote counting but eventually Oz pulled ahead by a few hundred votes. McCormick refused to concede and called for counting mail in ballots, which both countered and mirrored Trump's 2020 fight after the Pennsylvania vote. The former President chose not to be consistent and claim that McCormick was the winner since he had been ahead in the count late at night. Instead, he called on McCormick to concede to the candidate he had endorsed.

 

McCormick would not concede the race until June 3, which also ironically angered many Trump loyalists. Oz was the winner by less than a thousand votes, having received 31 percent, the same as McCormick. Barnette took third with 25 percent and did concede on Primary Night but blamed Sean Hannity. She has thus far refused to endorse Oz but has left a door open to doing so. A couple other candidates, once considered to be prominent in the race could not even come very close to double digits, after all the focus was on the three leaders. These included Carla Sands, a businesswoman, chiropractor and former actress who had been Trump's Ambassador to Denmark. She tried to position herself as very pro-Trump. The one major remaining candidate who did not seem to go out of his way to do so was real estate developer Jeff Bartos, who had been the party's 2018 Lt. Governor nominee. That loss was almost exclusively attributed to a poor performance by the candidate for Governor. It is likely that Bartos could have been the best of the lot in terms of not having general election baggage, but alas, he came in 5th out of 7 in the primary with 5 percent.

Turning to the Democrats, they also had three leading contenders in a finalized four person field. The frontunner had always been Lt. Governor John Fetterman though. A tall, large man with a shaved head and many tattoos, he looks far more like a bouncer than a politician. Known for wearing hooded sweatshirts and cargo shorts, Fetterman has always been a favorite of those who like the idea of someone "different" in politics. In 2006, he came Mayor of the small, working-class city of Braddock. Also involved in non-profit efforts, Fetterman became sort of a populist icon locally. At one point, he was said to weigh more than 400 pounds, but lost well over 100 of them on a diet. This might make him more credible on weight loss strategies than Dr. Oz.

 

Fetterman ran for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and surprised many by winning 19 percent as the third place finisher to better known candidates. The Mayor ran as a Bernie Sanders style Democrat and received notice nationally from many in that political network. This helped him two years later when the Democrat ran for Lt. Governor and won a multi-candidate field with 38 percent, that included the scandal plagued incumbent who finished fourth. This put Fetterman on the ticket with incumbent Governor Tom Wolf, who was already a solid favorite for reelection. The two ran ads which contrasted the unusual alliance between Fetterman and the more stolid, very wealthy Governor. As Lt. Governor, Fetterman would wear a suit and tie when needed as Lt. Governor but as a candidate for the Senate is back to his extremely casual, some would say slovenly look.

As a Bernie Sanders type Democrat, Fetterman might be too far to the left for most in the state, although his personal appeal might overlap for some who liked the outsider status and swagger of Trump. I do not think there is any doubt that Congressman Connor Lamb would have made a stronger nominee for Democrats. Many thought that the more moderate Lamb, who won a 2018 special election upset with the help of crossover Republican votes, would eventually emerge as the candidate Democrats would pick due to electability concerns about Fetterman. The polls continued to show Fetterman well ahead though. Lamb, in a somewhat desperate situation, called Fetterman an avowed socialist, which is pretty much a Republican talking point. Fetterman denied this and said that both he and Lamb were capitalists and Democrats. Lamb also tried to hurt Fetterman on the left by pointing out an incident from when his opponent had been Mayor. Fetterman thought he heard gunshots and felt that as Mayor he had the initiative to detain someone with his shotgun. It turned out the person was an unarmed African-American jogger. Fetterman insisted he had not done anything improper and that he merely showed the man he was armed and since this person was wearing a mask, he had no idea he was black but was worried that he might be about to shoot up a nearby elementary school. The gentleman in question said in 2021 that Fetterman was continuing to lie about what had happened, but that the Senate candidate should not be defined by one action and that he was hoping Fetterman would win the race. The whole thing sounds extremely confusing and there is at least some aspect of hypocrisy because if it were a Republican confronting an unarmed man with a shotgun, I doubt that the people who shrugged this off about Fetterman would have done the same.

Fetterman easily won the primary over Lamb 59-26. Fetterman's support on the left very much hurt the candidacy of Malcom Kenyatta, a 32 year old gay, African-American State Representative who had hoped to be seen as the true progressive in the race. He only mustered 11 percent of the vote. The result of the primary was both major parties nominated candidates who had taken stances on issues that could be seen as out of the mainstream and could hamper their ability to win in November.

A bigger issue was at hand though and possibly one that helped Fetterman garner sympathy votes. When the primary results came in, the 52 year old Fetterman was in the hospital after suffering a stroke days earlier. He had a brief health incident in 2019 while presiding over the State Senate, but this episode came as a surprise to many. However, perhaps not so much for Fetterman himself or his previous physicians. He had been diagnosed with some heart related issues in 2017 but did not do much to follow up on what was recommended. After feeling ill on the campaign trail, Fetterman only went to the hospital on the insistence of his wife, which likely saved his life. He has owned up to that as well as not follow previous medical advice. However, the campaign has been less than transparent about the candidate's health and the seriousness of the situation was slow in being revealed. It was known that he spent nine days in the hospital and had a pacemaker surgically implanted, but Fetterman would continue to remain away from the campaign trail after being released for several weeks.

There were many questions about just how healthy Fetterman was and how it might affect his campaign or ability to serve in the Senate. The candidate and the campaign insist that he will eventually make a full recovery but that the stroke has continued to cause him some difficulty with speech and language. After returning to the campaign trail, some of this has been clear, which Republicans across the country are very quick to point out. Frankly though, Fetterman's political brand was always that he was a guy off the street and not some sort of smooth orator .I do not know how different he really speaks and sounds from the way he was before. Clearly, there is some damage that has been done, perhaps not permanently from the stroke, but that Fetterman is not exactly the vegetable that some of his critics are trying to portray. (More on Oz's problem with vegetables as the saga continues...)

Of course it is very ironic that a major Senate candidate in a battleground race suffered a stroke while his general election opponent is a famed cardiovascular surgeon. Obviously, Oz has not examined Fetterman. I think they may not have even met in person at this point. Oz is focusing on the fact that Fetterman's problems and reluctance to agree to debates is a sign he is not fit for the Senate. The candidate even brought in Senator Toomey to help bolster the point. Oz and many of his supporters overlooked the fact that Toomey had voted to convict Trump and to many would be considered persona non grata in the party. Since winning the primary, Oz has taken some steps to scrub information from his website and distance himself from Trump, as other Republican nominees in competitive races have also been doing. He did appear with Trump though at a post-primary rally and Oz's old Tweets in which he talks a lot about poop continue to be linked to his official campaign modes of communication.

On the topic of debates, Fetterman eventually agreed to one with the condition that closed captioning be used because he has suffered some hearing loss. Oz said that was fair enough as long as it was made clear to the audience but also wanted a debate extended from one hour to 90 minutes, and the Fetterman campaign has taken some issues with that condition. I do not think that is a sign of confidence in their candidate. It appears there will just one debate between the two late in October.

While many are concerned about Fetterman's fitness to serve, some of the things being said about him may generate a sympathetic backlash. After Oz was roundly criticized for a campaign "live shot" in which he misstated the name of a store and said he was shocked by the high prices of things he needed to buy to make cruditie, which is basically a veggie tray, as Fetterman mocked, a spokeswoman for Oz said that Fetterman might not have had a stroke if he had ever eaten a vegetable. Making fun of someone for having a stroke seems pretty low, but that is the state of our politics today.

The negative themes in this race are clear. Fetterman is being portrayed as a soft on crime oath, who despite his blue collar image, was financially supported for many years by his wealthy parents. The Lt. Governor has said that was necessary because he was only receiving a very small salary while serving as Mayor. There are also questions about some of Fetterman's past finances.  Oz is being portrayed as a rich elitist snob from out of state who does not even know how many homes he owns and uses terms like "cruditie." I will point out that I and many other viewers of "Jeopardy!" found Oz arrogant and unlikable when he was one of the celebrity guest hosts after the death of Alex Trebek.

I have written about this race more than any other to this point, so I have to try to wrap this up. In many ways this is a conservative vs liberal choice for Pennsylvania. Fetterman is trying to hurt Oz by focusing on abortion and Oz is trying to hurt Fetterman by focusing especially on crime. Some of the positions Fetterman has taken over the years are being distorted, but they are seemingly having an effect. Ads are being run saying Fetterman wants to legalize heroin, get rid of life sentences for murder, and release all sorts of prisoners onto the streets. For a while, Fetterman had a substantial lead in the polls over Oz, but recently, the polls have narrowed. The attacks on Fetterman on crime matters and perhaps concerns about his ability to serve after the stroke appear to have made a difference. It could also be that the passage of time has helped people forget a bit about Oz and Cruditegate. It is also likely that supporters of other Republican primary candidates who were upset when Oz won the nomination are now "coming home", perhaps for no other reason that they fear Fetterman being elected and what that could mean for Republican hopes of winning a Senate majority. While McCormick might not have been a perfect candidate, he would probably be in better shape than Oz. Had Democrats nominated Lamb instead of Fetterman, Lamb would almost certainly be a clear favorite.

If there is such a thing as current momentum, it seems to be with Oz. However, it may not be enough, as he just may be too flawed. Fetterman has more than enough problems of his own, but because of his unique political branding and sympathy that might be present for his recent health challenges, he may be immune politically to some things other candidates are not. The debate will be highly watched, assuming it occurs, and there will be a burden on both of these unusual candidates to show both gravitas and the ability to be relatable to the average voter, and there may be a lower bar for Fetterman in regards to his ability to effectively communicate. He has definitely made some gaffes at the microphone recently, but thus far not one as near as cringeworthy as Joe Biden trying to find the late Congresswoman Jackie Walorski in a crowd. (Did Kamala Harris today say that North Korea was our ally instead of saying South Korea as a gaffe or trying to get some heat off of Biden? Probably the former.)

Most polls (unlike the PA race for Governor) look close now, and some are closer than they were. Nonetheless, Fetterman is still ahead in all of them, by varying amounts. Oz has not had a lead in a single poll over his opponent, even in the Republican sponsored ones. (Soon enough, one of those will emerge though.) Those who want Oz to win need to hope the polls are wrong. In some cases, such as 2016, they  have been in Pennsylvania, at least by a little bit. 

More often than not though, Pennsylvania has been going Democrat at the state level. Until there is evidence to suggest otherwise, I have to think that Fetterman still has a tiny edge. If Republicans want to win the Senate, this is a seat they can ill afford to lose to the other side.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

13 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup)

16 R (8 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

49 D (36 Holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

45 R (29 Holdover, 8 Safe. 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)