Pennsylvania Governor- Race of the Day

42 Days Until Election Day

Pennsylvania Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

If mainstream Republicans with a sense of conscience are looking for a prime example of what has become of the Republican Party in the past few years, this race could be one of the first ones they look to. Some believe that this is a tight contest, but I happen to think it will not be all that close at the time of the voting. An open race for Governor of Pennsylvania should be extremely competitive but Republicans, with the nefarious help of Democrats have conspired to pick a standard-bearer that has too many weaknesses to win, barring a complete shock.

There used to be a pattern where a Democrat would govern Pennsylvania for two terms, and then were ineligible to run again, a Republican would then take over for four years, and then the cycle would repeat. That was broken though in 2010, when despite a rough environment for Democrats nationally, and a Senate seat won by Republicans in the Keystone State, Democrat Tom Wolf soundly defeated a Republican incumbent Governor. Four years later, Wolf won by an even larger margin, even after Donald Trump had surprisingly carried the Commonwealth two years earlier in the Presidential election. 

Now, Wolf, a wealthy former businessman, is term-limited. His unorthodox Lt. Governor for the past four years is instead engaged in a high-profile U.S. Senate race. Democrats turned to Josh Shapiro, currently in his sixth year as Attorney General and he was not challenged for the Gubernatorial nomination. As a long list of Republicans announced candidacies for the office, Shapiro's campaign mostly unfolded behind the scenes, and involved raising large amounts of money, as he would not have to compete in the May primary. There would be a primary for Lt. Governor however, to pick the person who would run with Shapiro. The presumptive nominee announced his support for State Representative Austin Davis. This would bring geographical balance to the Democrats' ticket and Davis would at age 33 by Election Day, be Pennsylvania's first elected African-American statewide official. Davis won a three way primary with 63 percent defeating the runner-up by some 38 points. A fellow State Representative, Brian Sims was the first openly gay candidate to be elected to the Pennsylvania legislature. After the primary, some Tweets Davis had made, back when he was college age, came to light in which he made disparaging remarks about gays and women, and seemed to admit to having driven drunk. The issues surrounding the Republican nominee's past seemed to make the Davis story more of a non-issue, but it does bring about a reminder that young politicians should probably scrub their old social media accounts.

Most of the attention paid was on the Republican side of the Gubernatorial race in which nine candidates were placed on the ballot, after some others dropped out before the printing had been done. The field looked to originally include State House Speaker Mike Turzai but he had a change of heart. State Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman would run as well as former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, the one female in the race, but both would drop out shortly before the primary and endorse a rival, in an attempt to derail the momentum of the eventual nominee. Other candidates who were considered from the mainstream wing of the party did not drop out such as former U.S. Attorney William McSwain and Delaware County Councilman Dave White. It is an open question as to what might have happened if they had joined the others in exiting the race to consolidate behind the candidate who was running closest in the polls to State Senator Doug Mastriano.

Shortly before the primary, Mastriano had been endorsed by Donald Trump, despite efforts from Republicans to get him not to do so. Mastriano had been perhaps Trump's top supporter in Pennsylvania and had echoed claims that the 2020 Presidential election had been stolen from the former President. He was initially considered a longshot when he got into the race, but would consolidate MAGA support in a crowded field. Trump saw the polls and wanting an endorsement win, put his seal of approval upon Mastriano. At the same time, Democrats were spending money trying to help Mastriano become the Republican nominee, believing, accurately no doubt, that he would be the easiest Republican to defeat. What cannot be ignored, as is the case in many other races across the country, is the hypocrisy on behalf of Democrats who claim that democracy itself at risk because of election deniers and MAGA Republicans. Yet, the unopposed Shapiro and his allies spent a lot of money to prop up the cash strapped Mastriano to help him beat the field. Since the primary, some polls have continued to show a close race. I do not happen to think the Democrat is at any real risk to lose, but there is no doubt that Democrats took a huge gamble in propping up a candidate, who if he were to win, has said he wants to basically void all current voter registration in the state and will be able to appoint a Secretary of State to oversee future elections. Shapiro has said that Mastriano was going to win the primary anyway and they were nearly shining a light on his "extreme" views. Anybody on either side of the divide who knows anything about politics knows the motives were far more than that and speaks very vividly to the massive hypocrisy on behalf of Democrats.

Before he could get nominated though, the last remaining hurdle for Mastriano was former Congressman Lou Barletta, a hardliner against illegal immigration as the Mayor of his town and then during eight years in the U.S. House. Barletta was a pretty MAGA candidate himself and in 2018 was the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate when he lost by double digits to a Democrat incumbent. As was the case in Ohio with a similar candidate, Trump was said to be incredulous that his guy Barletta could have lost so badly and that "loser" status prevented any future endorsement in this race for Governor. By this point, many in the GOP did not actually believe Barletta could beat Shapiro in a general election, but he would at least not be as combustible for the party as a whole than Mastriano, so that brought about some other (but not all candidates) dropping out and endorsing Barletta. Mastriano still beat Barletta 44-20. The two major candidates, seen as more moderate, who did not drop out, McSwain and White took 16 and 10 percent. Had they dropped out and all of their vote went to Barletta, it might have been enough. Again, "might have been."

It was not a complete victory for Mastriano though, as his preferred choice for Lt. Governor only finished in third place on the Republican side. Teddy Daniels, a fellow shaved head election denier and military veteran won 12 percent. Despite Mastriano openly courting the Evangelical vote, his unofficial runningmate Daniels was involved in the cannabis industry in addition to having lost a 2020 Congressional primary. A couple of more mainstream Republican Lt. Governor candidates finished even lower. Freshman State Representative Carrie DelRosso won the nomination with just 26 percent of the vote, finishing about 10 points ahead of former State Representative Rick Saccone, who was best known for a lousy campaign that narrowly cost him a 2018 Congressional special election he had been expected to win. On January 6, 2021, Saccone posted on Facebook that he was taking part in "storming the Capitol." That involvement caused him to resign his post as a college professor. Gubernatorial nominee Mastriano was also present in DC on that day, after helping organize the pre-riot rally. He claimed that he and his wife left the scene then things turned violent but video footage shows them standing by and watching people attempt to break into the Capitol. As for DelRosso, while she ran as an "anti-establishment" candidate for Lt. Governor, she has at least criticized the violence that occurred that day.

The general election is set between Josh Shapiro who is seeking to become the third Jewish Democrat to be Governor Pennsylvania and his Republican opponent Doug Mastriano, who is basically running as an avowed Christian Nationalist. Again, Shapiro wanted to run against Mastriano and helped him capture the nomination. He is complicit in forcing this choice for the voters and if he somehow loses, he can also have himself to blame. Even if Mastriano loses, he is unlikely to ever concede defeat or claim that the election was fair. Many of his supporters will believe it and their views will continue to be elevated in the current political discourse. Shapiro and the Democrats across the country from the DGA and other entities who went along and helped fund this effort are complicit in all of that. Recently, Mastriano attacked Shapiro having attended an exclusive Jewish Day School when he was a child. It is unclear that the choice back then would have even been Shapiro's himself, but the entire thing is pretty disturbing. If a Jewish Democrat attacked a Republican opponent for having attended a Catholic parochial school as a child or a Protestant Christian school, they would be rightfully criticized at no end for that and accused of bigotry. Once again, Shapiro helped make all this happen.

The bottom line is that Shapiro has a lot more money to spend on this race than Mastriano and is running far more ads. Abortion has been the main focus on the Democrat's campaign, which cannot come as a huge surprise. Mastriano is also embarking on a campaign strategy of basically ignoring the mainstream media and not letting them even cover many of his events. He is only speaking to friendly audiences and friendly media sources. 

Mastriano has quite the past. He should be applauded for a 31 year Army career, in which he served in war and retired as a Colonel. Before he officially retired from wearing the uniform of the United States, and despite coming from one of the most prominent Union states during the Civil War, Mastriano chose to wore Confederate grays for a photo that faculty members took at Army War College. Reportedly, the faculty was given the choice to dress as an historical figure if they so chose. Most wore civilian clothes or their current Army uniform. A couple of guys seem to be wearing weird historical outfits or using props but Mastriano was the only one dressed as a Confederate soldier.

Before being elected to the State Senate in 2019, Mastriano ran for Congress in 2018 and finished fourth in a field of eight primary candidates taking 16 percent. Democrats are also now pressing some of the themes the Republican Gubernatorial candidate ran on in that campaign about same sex marriage and adoption, deporting DACA recipients and that Islam was incompatible with the Constitution or holding political office in the United States. When he arrived in the State Senate, Mastriano sponsored a bill to ban abortions,with no exceptions, and said that women who had them should be charged with murder. After the 2020 election, he actively pursued all options to send delegates to the Electoral College who would cast votes for Donald Trump, instead of the Electors who were rightfully elected by the voters on behalf of Biden.

Some have pointed out the ties that Mastriano and his campaign has to the Christian Nationalist movement and militia groups. A story today tells how the candidate accepted a contribution from a far-right social media activist known for being openly anti-Semitic and saying that Jews are not welcome as part of the nationalist cause. Earlier in the cycle, Mastriano had paid this individual for consulting work on his campaign. The candidate then claimed he rejected anti-Semitism but dismissed the matter as "smears" on behalf of Democrats and the media. He remains a rare candidate who does not engage with the mainstream press at all. In issuing a debate challenge to Shapiro, Mastriano insisted that the moderator be a particular conservative activist. It is unlikely Mastriano will agree to any traditional debates. While Pennsylvania Republicans seem to be trying to come together to prop up an unconventional U.S. Senate nominee, there seems to be far more division over Mastriano .The Republican Jewish Coalition has issues statements criticizing Mastriano for ties to extremists and for exclusion in the campaign.

While the Republican candidate has brought in Florida Governor and potential Presidential aspirant Ron DeSantis to campaign for him, stories are continuing to mount that Mastriano's campaign is close to broke, will not be able to run tv ads, and that his crowds are small. Some who wish for Republicans to do well look at polls and believe that what happened for Trump in 2016 in Pennsylvania can happen again and that their nominee is not really all that far behind. One Republican poll earlier this month showed just a two point spread between candidates, but another Republican poll out since, shows a 15 point lead for Shapiro. Independent media polls show the Democrat holding an even slightly larger lead. These same polls are also showing a much tighter Senate race, which is getting more attention nationally.

 

For whatever vulnerabilities Shapiro may have as a candidate, or via his record as Attorney General, or what he seeks to do as Governor, this race is really about Mastriano and how his opponents are being able to define him without much effective pushback from the candidate. Issues that Republicans would like to push and which are being done in many other races across the country are not getting their proper hearing because Mastriano is just such a flawed candidate. Speaking personally, based on Shapiro's culpability in aiding Mastriano, I do not think I could ever vote for him, but the question really must be asked of Pennsylvania Republicans who are willing to support Mastriano, just exactly what would it take to not vote for somebody just because they have an R next to their name. This is a pretty extreme circumstance and there is much that I am not even getting into here regarding the controversies surrounding Mastriano's history and what he would seek to do as Governor. 

There may be many conservatives in Pennsylvania but it is not a hard-right state who is going to embrace a hard-right candidate. Regardless of what polls are saying now, I cannot imagine this one will wind up too close.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

16 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

12 R  (3 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

22 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

20 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 6 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)