South Dakota U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

35 Days Until Election Day

South Dakota U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Twenty years ago, the eyes of the political world were on the South Dakota Senate race. John Thune, who was serving his third term as the state's At Large Congressman, wanted to run for Governor, but the George W. Bush White House persuaded him instead to run for the Senate against an incumbent Democrat. The Republican fell short by just over 500 votes under some questionable circumstances. Nonetheless, Thune accepted defeat and then ran again in 2004 against Tom Daschle, the Leader of Senate Democrats. This was another highly intense contest and this time Thune prevailed by over 4000 votes.

Returning to Washington, Thune was considered someone to watch as a future Presidential candidate. He never ran for the office though and that window opportunity seems to have passed him by. He has won two Senate reelections, either unopposed or with minimal opposition. Thune has risen in the Senate Leadership and for almost the last four years has been the GOP Whip. He is seen as somebody who might one day replace Mitch McConnell as the party leader in the Senate. That was though if he even planned to run again in 2022. Thune had given some signals that he might not be interested in a fourth term. He had run afoul of Donald Trump, particularly over challenging the 2020 election results, and Trump began referring to him as "Mitch's Boy" and "weak", while the soon to be ex-President also promised on his then Twitter account that Thune would lose a primary and see the end of his political career. Trump tried to get South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, a more MAGA ally into the race, but she declined and stated she considered Thune a friend. Noem is running for a second term as Governor and has Presidential aspirations herself, which would have made it more difficult, even if she had won a Senate election, to immediately begin running for 2024.

Many Republicans did not want to see Thune walk away, not so much because they were concerned the seat could go to a Democrat, but because of the respect he had on Capitol Hill as a mainstream member of the party. Thune would face two primary challengers in June, including a Native American who had once chaired a county Republican Party and had been the Congressional nominee in 2006. Bruce Whalen lost that year in a landslide, back when South Dakota Democrats were still having some statewide success. While a portion of the party clearly had turned on Thune, he still easily won renomination with a 72-20 win over Whalen.

Only one Democrat sought the office and the party nominated Brian Bengs, an attorney and political science professor, who first served in the Navy and then retired as a Colonel in the Air Force. On paper, Bengs seems like a credible candidate for his party, but South Dakota is a very solid red state in recent cycles and Thune, despite his annoyance of the Trump wing of the party, is likely still popular with independent minded voters. 

Recently, the Bengs campaign released an internal survey that showed numbers that they say has the challenger ahead of the incumbent by a 45-38 margin. They are saying that Bengs is not seen as a typical Democrat and Thune is very vulnerable. This "poll" though was a push-poll in which people are told all sorts of negative things about one candidate and all sorts of positive things about another, designed to get a specific result. Maybe Bengs has no choice but to try something like that as a Democrat in order to gain attention, but it seems a bit dishonest. I do not believe Thune is in danger of anything except maybe only winning by 20 points.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

13 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup)

18 R (10 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

49 D (36 Holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

47 R (29 Holdover, 10 Safe. 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)