Texas Governor- Race of the Day

32 Days Until Election Day

Texas Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Every four years, the stats get repeated. Not one single, solitary Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. The last time the party won the Governorship was in 1990. In fact, Democrats have not gotten a majority of the Lone Star Gubernatorial vote in 40 years. In recent cycles, Democrats keep expecting to make gains towards turning Texas blue. To some extent, that has happened, as highly educated, affluent suburban voters who were not long ago solidly voting for Texas Republicans turned against Donald Trump and has made the state closer in Presidential voting than was the case under the GOP banner of John McCain and Mitt Romney, not to mention former Governor George W. Bush. Republicans elsewhere on the Texas ballot have performed a bit better than Trump however. Also, at the same time, there has been a recent shift, especially in South Texas, among Latino voters, once overwhelmingly Democrat, turning towards Republicans. These factors all make it likely that statewide elections are going to be competitive but that Republicans still have an unmistakable edge.

This year, the race in Texas is one of the highest profile races in the country. Republicans feel very assured of victory and honest Democrats will concede that they do not feel too good about ousting the incumbent, despite high motivation to do so. I think this race "Leans Republican" but could wind up on the cusp of "Likely."

The state will see a rare election in which one nominee has run for President and the other would probably like the opportunity to do so. Having already won two terms as Governor, incumbent Greg Abbott is running for a third. At the beginning of his Governorship, few saw him having the ambition of predecessors G.W. Bush and Rick Perry in seeking the White House, but Abbott is very much in the conversation as a big state Governor who has been going out of his way to make national headlines and appeal to the Republican base nationwide. He is facing Robert Francis O'Rourke, better known as "Beto", a once highly touted rising Democrat star, whose brief 2020 campaign for his party's Presidential nomination went nowhere, and earned him more derision and snark than anything else.

Even before becoming Governor, Abbott has been winning statewide office in Texas since 1998. He has been around so long that it is not nearly mentioned as much that he is the most prominent American politician who is completely confined to a wheelchair.due to a tree falling him on at age 26 when he was jogging. For all the controversy recently surrounding Abbott's hardline approach towards illegal immigration and headline grabbing actions involving the shipping of asylum seekers to other states, it is also not mentioned much that he is married to the granddaughter of Mexican immigrants. Cecilia Abbott is the first Latina First Lady in Texas history.

While undoubtedly conservative, Abbott had traditionally been seen as an establishment Republican politician. He had few enemies though and did not face any sort of significant primary challenge in his first two terms. As the party changed under Trump though, Abbott also moved towards being more of a confrontational right-winger who welcomed doing battle over cultural issues. In spite of this, or perhaps because this had become more of a Republican requirement, the incumbent did face a more significant primary effort against him way back on March 1. While the incumbent continued to have the party establishment, including Trump, behind him, former State Senator Don Huffines, a wealthy real estate developer, ran to Abbott's right, and presented himself as more a libertarian Republican, who criticized the Governor on Covid related efforts during the pandemic. A more nationally known opponent was Allen West, an African-American retired Army officer. West was elected to Congress in 2008 from Florida and he was an outspoken adherent of the Tea Party, as that movement was coming to the forefront in the Republican Party. West became known for saying that various Democrats were truly Communists. He lost his seat, due in large part to redistricting in 2012. After leaving Congress, he relocated to Texas, and eventually became the Chairman of the Texas Republican Party, defeating the incumbent. In that role, he flirted with the concept of secession and seemed to show some identity with the Q-Anon crowd. The Chairman of the State Party resigned to run against the incumbent Governor of the same, which is not something that has probably ever happened before in politics.

 

West recovered from a Covid related hospitalization to finish second in the primary, narrowly ahead of Huffines. Both men took 12 percent, and Abbott likely exceeded expectations by winning renomination with 66 percent of the vote. There would clearly be no need for a May runoff in this race, though ones would be held for some other statewide offices in both parties. Abbott has had a bit of an arm's distance relationship with the controversial Republicans who serve as Lt. Governor and Attorney General of Texas, who are far more identified as movement conservatives. Both of them are facing serious reelection challenges this fall, but are believed to have a slight edge over their Democrat opponents.

 

Five Democrats ran for Governor, but the big names or those who were concerned with victory, stayed out of the field, or ran for other offices, especially after Beto O'Rourke entered the race. He won an impressive 91 percent of his party's primary vote.

 

A native of El Paso, though Anglo, despite his childhood nickname, O'Rourke overcame some youthful incidents including a DUI arrest and some time in a punk band to serve on the City Council. In 2012, he defeated a more moderate longtime Democrat incumbent in a primary on his way to the U.S. House. In 2018, the Congressman took on divisive freshman Senator Ted Cruz, who was on the heels of losing to Donald Trump for the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination, and then going back on his supposed principles and humbling himself before the President who had insulted his wife's looks and alleged that his dad might have been involved in the JFK assassination. This was one of the most closely watched races of 2018. O'Rourke did better than any Texas Democrat had in some time, but the lean of the state was too much to overcome and he fell about three points short. On Election Night, O'Rourke gave a bit of (at least to me) weird concession speech, complete with generous use of profanity.

 

Ambition still persisted in Beto though and he entered the Presidential sweepstakes in 2019 to lots of national fanfare. Some interviews though made him come across as inauthentic and like many others in the large field, his candidacy never took off. There was also another Texas Democrat in the race, former Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro, the twin brother of O'Rourke's former Texas Democrat House colleague. The two of them clashed a bit on debate stages and O'Rourke is mostly remembered for seeming to endorse the idea of confiscating certain guns from citizens. He dropped out of the race right before Super Tuesday and endorsed Joe Biden. Some had hoped O'Rourke would instead run for Texas's other U.S. Senate seat, but with a less divisive Republican incumbent than Cruz seeking reelection, he took a pass. The pull of seeking electoral office came along again though, leading O'Rourke into the Governorship race for the right to take on Abbott.

 

Since the primary, Abbott has led in just about every poll by solid, if not overwhelming margins. O'Rourke is certainly not hurting though in regards to his fundraising. Before the general election had been officially set, there was a lot of speculation that actor Matthew McConaughey might run as an Independent and many polls took him into consideration. The fact that Academy Award winner fared as well in polls as he did was a sign of dissatisfaction that Texas had with both Abbott and O'Rourke. It is unknown just how seriously McConaughey was really thinking about running for Governor, but he left the window open for a time as a somewhat centrist option. Not much was really known about the actor's beliefs though, but the anticipation was that he would take votes away from the Democrat. It was a relief to O'Rourke's campaign when McConaughey announced that this was not the right time for him to enter politics. The Democrats probably gave out an "alright, alright, alright." Interestingly, McConaughey has not endorsed a candidate for Governor, although he did speak at the Biden White House in favor of gun control after the horrific school shooting in his hometown of Uvalde in May.

That tragic event and the overall issue of gun control has become a huge issue in the campaign. There is so much to be outraged about in regards to the behavior on that day by the local police and questions remain about state government's role on that day too. Abbott insisted that local authorities lied and misled him in the immediate aftermath of the shooting and that the local police were made out to have acted heroically when they indeed were very cowardly. I would think Abbott would have been a bit more angry publicly about everything that happened. 

There is much disagreement on the issue of guns between the two nominees. Abbott, a strong supporter of the Second Amendment and the NRA, has continued to be opposed to any type of additional state legislation that might raise the age for purchasing assault rifles from 18 to 21, even as other states, such as Florida did just that after a previous school shooting. Abbott has insisted that mental health issues are the real cause of mass shootings and that crime in locales such as Chicago are proof that gun control does not work. He is banking that his position, even if it might be unpopular nationally, is still in line with how Texas view the issue of gun ownership.

As Abbott was joined by a slew of Texas elected officials and others at a press conference the day after the Uvalde massacre, he was interrupted by somebody in the audience who turned out to be O'Rourke. The Democrat's nominee was there with many television cameras watching as he yelled out Abbott that unless he took further action on guns, he would be responsible for the next school shooting. While the Governor largely remained silent at his opponent's ranting, others on stage, including the Mayor, reacted very angrily, and O'Rourke was escorted from the auditorium, and then angrily addressed the media from the parking lost. This bit of disruption received lots of attention and likely raised a lot of money for O'Rourke. Those who agree with his politics across the country were applauding while conservatives were very angry and called it a "stunt." I happen to think that whatever one might think of the overall issue of guns, what O'Rourke did came across as very tacky and very opportunistic and probably hurt his campaign.

Abbott is also being accused of "stunts" lately. There is no denying that Texas has a huge problem of immigrants crossing from the southern border and from legitimate asylum seekers arriving in the state. It is a huge problem for Texas resources and a matter of public safety for all involved. The Biden Administration seems unable or unwilling to fully address the issue. Along with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also seeking reelection this year, and also a potential 2024 Presidential candidate, Abbott has taken steps to ship these asylum seekers out of state to places like New York City, Washington D.C., and Chicago saying that liberal locales who have established laws making them "sanctuary cities" should share in the responsibility for taking care of these people. The overall point might have some validity but it seems cruel and counterproductive to use state resources to treat human beings that way, in which some deception might be involved, merely as a way to score political points. Both parties have and are continuing to fail us by addressing the entire issue in a comprehensive way. I also do not fully understand how DeSantis took the step of getting Venezuelan asylum seekers, (from a radical Socialist dictatorship) from Texas, bringing them to Florida, and then flying them to Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts so the rich liberals would have to deal with them there. Did he coordinate that with Abbott? Why would Florida get involved in Texas's problem to begin with besides for the political headlines?

Clearly, many national wedge issues, including abortion, are big parts of the Gubernatorial contest in Texas. Both major party nominees appeared flawed, although O'Rourke may have some more inherent weakness than the somewhat bland Governor, who at times seems unconvincing as a MAGA crusader. Abbott's job approval ratings are not very strong, but he will get votes from people who fear the idea of a Democrat taking over more, or who just have a visceral dislike of Beto.

One day the right Democrat may break the long Lone Star losing streak, but unless something very dramatic happens, this does not seem to be the race this year. Democrats should possibly consider doubling their efforts for a chance to take Lt. Governor or Attorney General.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

17 D  (2 Safe, 10 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

16 R  (4 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

23 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

24 R (8 Holdovers, 4 Safe, 8 Likely,  3 Leans, 1 Tossup)