Wisconsin U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

25 Days Until Election Day

Wisconsin U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Tossup (R)

 

The final U.S. Senate Race of the Day is in Wisconsin, where as discussed yesterday, the state is featuring two of the most competitive races of the year. It is hard to imagine that this race might not be a Tossup, but some signs are emerging that it may indeed be better news for the Republican. There will be ample time to change a classification if needed.

Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has an extremely impressive electoral record in Wisconsin, and due to his actions and rhetoric in recent years, he has given the opposition every opportunity to end his political career. The fact that Democrats are not favored outright at this point should be disappointing to them, and might point to Wisconsin becoming more red than it used to be or the fact that the party nominated a candidate considered very far to the left and not acceptable to many voters in the state.

There seems to be a pattern at play here in regards to this particular seat. An incumbent Senator winds up getting defeated during a strong year for the opposing party. That is how Democrat Russ Feingold came into office in 1992. Six years later, he won a second term narrowly, after having been considered a bit of an underdog. His second reelection against the current Republican Gubernatorial nominee was more decisive, and Feingold looked secure in Wisconsin, and was seen as a potential future Presidential candidate. 

The midterm election year of 2010 was very good to Republicans however. That party was intent on targeting Senator Feingold and rallied around the first time candidacy of industrialist Ron Johnson. Running on Tea Party themes, Johnson proved adept in capturing voters in the middle as well and he beat the incumbent by five points, in what was one of the biggest disappointments in the cycle for Democrats. During his first six years in the Senate, Johnson was seen as a fairly mainstream Republican but many considered his election to be a fluke related to a very bad cycle for Democrats. Feingold was focused on seeking a rematch and looked like the favorite to take back his seat from Johnson, which is fairly unheard of in Senate comeback attempts. Going into Election Day, most experts thought the Badger State would go for Hillary Clinton and Russ Feingold, but when the votes were counted, Donald Trump won the state in an upset and Johnson beat Feingold by an even larger margin than the Presidential contest, albeit by just three points.

With Trump in office, and Johnson believed by many to be planning to keep a two term only pledge, the Senator started moving more towards the MAGA wing of the party. In his role of Chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, Johnson regularly defended Trump and called for investigations of Democrats. The Senator was specifically implicated as part of the controversy surrounding U.S. aid to Ukraine, which led to Trump's first impeachment. After the 2020 election, Johnson sided publicly with Trump about election integrity concerns, although he was also said to have said otherwise in private. After some back and forth, Johnson did vote to certify the 2020 Electoral Count votes, but has also said many things that seemed to diminish what occurred on January 6. He made statements suggesting that Antifa or left-wing activists may have been part of the violence at the Capitol or at the FBI might be somewhat complicit. He also said that it was inaccurate to describe it as an "armed insurrection." The investigation of the events has led to allegations that Johnson's office was involved in the scheme to produce fake Electors.

Johnson had become more of a divisive political figure at home, but many did not know for a long time if he would seek a third term or stick to a term limits pledge. The situation was described in which it was said that both parties probably wanted him to run. Democrats thought he would be very vulnerable and Republicans were concerned that a non-incumbent could have a tougher time winning. While Johnson has clearly won two very impressive wins against the odds, I think perhaps it is true that a different Republican could be a stronger favorite at the moment. At the beginning of 2022, Johnson announced he would run again for reelection, breaking a previous campaign pledge. He received 84 percent of the vote against a little known challenger in the August Republican primary.

Initially, Democrats had one of the largest fields of major Senate contenders of anywhere in the country. The person considered the front-runner though was Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, who had come into office along with Governor Tony Ever fours years earlier. Still just 35 years old, Barnes was born in Milwaukee as the son of working-class African-American parents and was of course named after the famed South African leader, who was still imprisoned at the time of the birth of "The Other Mandela" (as he has referred to himself.) A community organizer, Barnes served four years in the Wisconsin House, before losing a 2016 primary challenge to a State Senator. He quickly rebounded from that defeat when easily won the nomination for Lt. Governor and then with the Democrats' ticket defeating that of the GOP incumbents, Barnes took office as Wisconsin's first black Lt. Governor and the youngest anywhere in the country.

Clearly ambitious, Barnes launched a campaign for the Senate rather than seeking another term on the ticket with Governor Evers. He faced a wide array of opponents with experience in both government and the business world. Most of the candidates played up their progressive bona fides, but party activists seemed to prefer Barnes, and the historic nature of the contrast that the young, tattooed black candidate would provide with the wealthy Johnson. With polls showing Barnes ahead but the primary occurring relatively late in the cycle in August, pressure mounted on the other Democrats to drop out and unite behind Barnes. That often does not happen in politics, but somehow Wisconsin Democrats made it happen, as one by one, candidates such as State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski (the only primary candidate who had won statewide office on her own accord),  wealthy Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, State Senator Chris Larson, and Outagmie Executive Tom Nelson, a one time Lt. Governor nominee all dropped out and appeared alongside Barnes to endorse him. Some lower profile Democrats remained in the race, but the Lt. Governor captured the nomination with 78 percent of the vote.

In this race, both nominees are popular with party activists, both in Wisconsin and nationwide, but have numerous political vulnerabilities as they relate to getting crossover votes or winning over people in the middle. Johnson continues to say things and take positions that would have in the past proved fatal for other politicians, such as basically coming out in favor of Social Security privatization and flirting with support for the theory that Democrats are encouraging immigration to "replace" white voters. The Senator is being targeted, like most Republicans are, for his Pro-Life view on abortion, in the wake of the recent Supreme Court ruling. Johnson was one of the Republicans who said he would support codifying support for same sex marriage into law, but has wavered on the specifics. Many believe that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer decided not to bring that legislation to the floor before the election in order to deny Johnson and other Republicans an opportunity to cast a vote that might make them seem less "extreme."

The earliest polls after the primary showed that Barnes had momentum and was ahead of the incumbent by a few points. Conservatives found this hard to believe, as recent polls in Wisconsin have understated support for the Republican candidate. While Johnson appears to be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent Senator, it does seem clear that he has picked up some momentum that might specifically be attributed to Barnes past rhetoric on crime on and policing issues. A several years old video of Barnes acting like a jerk and possibly shoving a man acting as a journalist surfaced not long ago. The incident occurred when he was a State Representative and I believe was brought up when he ran for Lt. Governor, but online, some tried to present it as an event that just occurred.

In the past, Barnes has expressed support for "defending the police" measures as well as abolishing ICE though as a Senate candidate, he is denying he ever took those positions. The negative ads being run against him though seem to be taking a toll. The Democrat has repeatedly tried to pivot to discussing Johnson's blase view of the January 6 riots in which several police officers were injured, and one later died. If Democrats had nominated a different candidate, it might be harder for Johnson and Republicans to score political points on this issue.

The debates between the two men have gotten very personal and the negative tenor of the campaign are likely to continue. Last night, the candidates were asked during a debate to "say something good" about their opponent. Both praised the other's family and while Barnes left it at that, Johnson said that despite his upbringing Barnes had "turned against America." This led to some audience members to boo the Senator. Another story emerged yesterday in which it was shown that Barnes had spoken about police brutality on several occasions in the past to Russian state television, which propagandized the issue.

The most recent polls tend to now show Johnson ahead, and in some, almost beyond the margin of error. It could be that pollsters are trying to compensate for past Wisconsin misses, but there has been definite movement to the Republican incumbent in recent weeks and this race does not look as close as the one for Governor where a Republican challenger is on the heels of the Democrat Governor that Barnes serves under. All things considered, it is amazing that Ron Johnson has not fumbled this race away, but in these ultra polarized political times, the weaknesses of an opponent seem to matter to many voters more than anything else. The trend is pointing towards a Johnson win, although that is still far from certain.

U.S. Senate races predicted:

15 D (8 Safe,  2 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup)

20 R (10 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Total Predictions:

51 D (36 Holdover, 8 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

49 R (29 Holdover, 10 Safe. 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF 1 SEAT