Washington U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

27 Days Until Election Day

Washington U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2022 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

In conservative circles, there has been chatter for months that Patty Murray, the number three Democrat in the Senate is vulnerable this year as she seeks a sixth term. While she indeed has a credible Republican opponent this year, I do not see much likelihood of an upset. Such a result would indicate a "red wave" beyond the likes we have seen in midterm history.

Back in 1992, Murray was a State Senator who sought to join the federal government while campaigning as a "Mom in tennis shoes." It just so happened to be called, at least by the media, "The Year of the Woman" and things fell in line very well for the Democrat. The male incumbent Senator of the same did not seek reelection after being accused of sexual misconduct and Murray used her outsider status to win a spot on the November ballot over a more well-known Democrat. She beat a Republican Congressman in the general election and has survived challenges for the seat, some more formidable than others, since. Personally, I can never forget the time that Murray explained her theory as to why Osama bin Laden had support in the Middle East. She said he was liked for building up infrastructure in those countries including "daycare" facilities. To me, that remains one of the dumbest things ever said by a politician, at least in the pre-Trump era.

After thirty years in Washington, Murray is certainly no longer an outsider, but a very influential member of her party's leadership, despite her low-key and non glamorous style. This year, for the first time really, the incumbent faces the same sort of contrast that brought her into national office. The longtime Washington insider is facing a young mother who is playing up her outsider status and record of community activism.

Washington, even before California adopted it, has a system of a "blanket primary" in which all candidates appear on the August primary ballot. The top two, regardless of party, then face off in November. The Republican candidate is Tiffany Smiley, a nurse. Her husband was blinded and seriously injured while serving in the Iraq War and Smiley has been involved in challenging Pentagon policies regarding disabled soldiers, as well working on behalf of veterans who were in need of services within the VA system. She also of course has been responsible for caring for her husband, and helping raise their family. Many national Republicans have been very bullish on Smiley as a first-time candidate. In the primary, Murray took 52 percent, while Smiley advanced with 34 percent. A collection of many little known Democrats, Republicans, and Independents took the remaining share. Those numbers were probably a bit disappointing to those who were hoping that Murray might lose in November. While she clearly is far from universally beloved in the state, the numbers indicate that Democrats definitely have an edge in liberal Washington.

Murray is far from a dynamic campaigner or compelling communicator while Smiley is a good deal more charismatic. Some of the economic and crime related issues of the midterm cycle would seem to favor a Republican challenger. Smiley though has had to try to find a way to stay on message when the topics of Donald Trump and abortion bans are brought up and Democrats believe those matters will take up most of the oxygen for the race. Smiley is trying to run as a mainstream Republican who does not go out of her way to talk about Trump, but in the past has refused to acknowledge outright that Joe Biden was legitimately elected President in 2020. Regardless of what she might really believe, all sorts of Republican candidates in high profile races have to rely on MAGA support and money to stay afloat. The challenger has said she is opposed to efforts to introduce a national abortion ban in the Senate but is Pro Life and believes the matter should be left up to the states. For Democrats and their ad-makers, those distinctions really do not matter.

In some other states, Smiley might be in a good position of winning a Senate election, and Republicans definitely have a few states where they could use a better candidate. In Washington though, outside of the conservative rural areas, Democrats run up big totals and have won every race for Senate and Governor going back to 1994. While some Republican affiliated polls have shown Murray's lead in the three to six point range, the Democrat has led in every poll. Democrat affiliated polls show a double digit lead for the incumbent, while independent polls show a lead that tends to be in the high single digits.

Tiffany Smiley may have future political opportunities if she wants them but despite some online hype, this would be a very tough race to win.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

15 D (8 Safe,  2 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup)

19 R (10 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

51 D (36 Holdover, 8 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

48 R (29 Holdover, 10 Safe. 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 1 Tossup)