Wisconsin Governor- Race of the Day

26 Days Until Election Day

Wisconsin Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

Outlook: Tossup (D)

Arizona and Georgia are getting a lot of attention as states that have high profile Gubernatorial and Senate races on the same ballot, but the states with the closest battles for both offices might actually be in Nevada and also in Wisconsin. Both the incumbent Democrat Governor and the incumbent Republican Senator are in danger of losing reelection. It is also extremely feasible that both will win. Then again, one party or the other may have a good night and take both races in America's Dairyland. Wisconsin could confound everyone though by seeing the parties swap offices. Hopefully, the people of the state just north of me will come to their senses about Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.

Not long ago, Wisconsin was considered a populist strong point for Democrats, at least federally, while a Republican Governor served for a long time in Madison. Now, a Democrat is Governor, despite Republican strength in the state legislature, and the state has become more friendly towards Republicans on the federal level. In the Presidential vote, the states has this century seen two very close Democrat wins for President, followed by two relatively easy ones for Barack Obama. In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly won with 47 percent of the vote and become the first Republican to carry Wisconsin since 1984. Four years later, Joe Biden won it back for Democrats by less than a point, but that was a good deal closer for Trump than a lot of polls had been predicting. The outgoing President also included Wisconsin on his list of states that were stolen from him. Republicans still believe, and perhaps with some justification, that based on 2016 and 2020, polls may be underestimating their support in the state.

Republican Governor Scott Walker, who in 2012 became the first Governor to survive a recall election, had been a rising GOP political star, but he was among those vanquished by Trump in the 2016 Presidential sweepstakes. In 2018, he sought, perhaps unwisely, a third term as Governor. He would wind up losing, by just over a point (which was a better showing than some polls had the race at) to Democrat Tony Evers. The low-key, somewhat nerdy elected Superintendent of Public Instruction had emerged from a crowded primary field and was able to, along with the other statewide Democrat candidates, take advantage of growing disapproval of Walker's policies.

Having to work with a Republican legislature, it has been far from clear sailing for Evers as Governor. The state became a national flashpoint after riots in Kenosha during the summer of 2020 and the divisive Kyle Rittenhouse ordeal. Evers has also had to deal with the Covid pandemic and some of his orders being knocked down by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, also under the control of Republicans. While his approval numbers have been middling, the incumbent was unopposed in the August primary as he sought a second term. With the current Lt. Governor running for the U.S. Senate, Democrats chose a new running-mate for Evers during primary season. The easy winner, with over two-thirds of the vote was State Representative Sarah Rodriguez, a former nurse and health care executive.

Republicans had a more complicated nomination process for Governor. For a time, Tommy Thompson, who had served as Governor from 1987 to 2001 left open the possibility of another political comeback attempt at age 80, but he did not run. Businessman Kevin Nicholson a one time Democrat, turned conservative Republican who lost a competitive 2018 U.S Senate primary, did enter the fray but dropped out after it was clear that he was well behind two opponents. State Assemblyman Tim Ramthun, a very pro-MAGA candidate stayed in the race and finished in third with six percent. Even after dropping out, Nicholson remained on the ballot and finished with just under 4 percent. That was not quite enough to make up the margin of the eventual spread between the first and second place finisher.

Running with the endorsement of former Governor Walker and much of the Wisconsin GOP establishment was former Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. The former beauty pageant contestant and television news reporter was married to a Republican state legislator and in 2010 was elected on the ticket with Walker. She also survived the recall effort launched against them both by Wisconsin Democrats and continued serving as Lt. Governor until their ticket was ousted in 2018.

A somewhat late entrant into the race was businessman Tim Michels, an Army veteran and construction executive, who quickly overtook Nicholson as the top alternative to Kleefisch. In 2004, Michels had been the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate but lost by double digits to the incumbent Democrat. His only previous political foray had been a 1998 blowout loss in a primary challenge to a State Senator. After his 2004 loss, Michels basically dropped off the political scene and spent most of the time living on the East Coast, before launching his 2022 bid for Governor.

While Kleefisch had the support of former Vice President Mike Pence, Trump went his own way and endorsed Michels in June, which greatly enhanced his prospects. (Former Governor Thompson would offer his endorsement to the Michels campaign later on.) According to reports, Trump was angry at Kleefisch and the Wisconsin Republican establishment for not doing more to back up his claim of fraud and helping him challenge the election results in the state. One specific instance some believe led Trump to endorse Michels was an Instagram photo of Kleefisch's teenage daughter dressed up and going to a Homecoming dance with the teenage son of a Republican Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice, who did not side with Trump over legal challenges to the election. Apparently, that was all it took to decide that Kleefisch was no good for Trump.

Both candidates maintained their support for Trump on the campaign trail, but Michels, also a former establishment like figure, had the edge. Many believed that Kleefisch would be the stronger general election candidate against Evers but the businessman prevailed by a 47-42 margin. It appears the party, highly motivated to defeat the incumbent, quickly rallied behind him after that. Republicans also held a very crowded primary for Lt. Governor in which the candidates stressed their conservative credentials. The winner with 30 percent was State Senator Roger Roth. A fellow State Senator finished in second place with 18 percent. This has left the Republicans with two white males at the top of their ticket, which is fairly unusual in Governor/Lt. Governor elections recently, in both parties (although it does not seem to be an issue in Ohio currently.)

Polls have continued to show an extremely close race between Evers and Michels. An Independent female candidate who had qualified for the ballot, dropped out and endorsed the Republican. As can be expected, Michels is focusing on economic angst and especially on concerns about crime and violence in Wisconsin. Democrats predictably are trying to paint Michels as a Trump clone and are pushing heavily on the abortion issue. The state may very well enact an 1849 law banning all abortion except to save the life of the mother, but that matter is currently held up in the courts. Michels had expressed his support for that law and that he would stand steadfastly by it. Recently though, the Republican nominee has stated that he now supports an exception for rape. Michels also is on record in saying he would support a 2024 Trump run, which may not be surprising, considering that he likely would have fallen a good deal short of a primary win without Trump's support this summer.

Polling has been done at a steady clip recently in Wisconsin and that will be expected to continue. The same surveys show the controversial incumbent Republican Senator doing better in his race against his controversial Democrat opponent than Michels is doing against Evers. In some respect, the race for Governor may be the more boring one, but the one that might also wind up the closest. If polling is even slightly off, or momentum towards Republicans emerges in the final days, Michels may very well do what Evers did four years earlier, and knock off an incumbent Governor. I think though that this particular Republican nominee is not the best possible candidate to accomplish that and might fall just short.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

18 D  (2 Safe, 10 Likely. 3 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

17 R  (4 Safe, 9 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

24 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)

25 R (8 Holdovers, 4 Safe, 9 Likely,  3 Leans, 1 Tossup)