U.S. House Outlook- Volume 8

October 29, 2006
9 Days Until Election Day

Rhode Island

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. Patrick Kennedy D (Kerry 62%)- Safe D
2. Jim Langevin D (Kerry 57%)- Safe D

RI Current: 2 D, 0 R
RI Predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current thus far: 167 D, 184 R
Predicted:
177 D (144 Safe, 16 Likely, 8 Leans, 9 Tossup)
174 R (117 Safe, 35 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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South Carolina

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Henry Brown R (GWB 61%)- Safe R
2. Joe Wilson R (GWB 60%)- Safe R
3. Gresham Barrett R (GWB 65%)- Safe R
4. Bob Inglis R (GWB 65%)- Safe R
5. John Spratt D (GWB 57%)- Likely D
6. James Clyburn D (Kerry 61%)- Safe D

SC Current: 2 D, 4 R
SC Predicted: 2 D, 4 R

Current thus far: 169 D, 188 R
Predicted:
179 D (145 Safe, 17 Likely, 8 Leans, 9 Tossup)
178 R (121 Safe, 35 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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South Dakota

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

1. Stephanie Herseth D (GWB 60%)- Safe D

SD Current: 1 D, 0 R
SD Predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current thus far: 170 D, 188 R
Predicted:
180 D (146 Safe, 17 Likely, 8 Leans, 9 Tossup)
178 R (121 Safe, 35 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Tennessee

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Open (Bill Jenkins R)- (GWB 68%)- Safe R
2. Jimmy Duncan R (GWB 65%)- Safe R
3. Zach Wamp R (GWB 61%)- Safe R
4. Lincoln Davis D (GWB 58%)- Safe D
5. Jim Cooper D (Kerry 52%)- Safe D
6. Bart Gordon D (GWB 60%)- Safe D
7. Marsha Blackburn R (GWB 68%)- Safe R
8. John Tanner D (GWB 53%)- Safe D
9. Open (Harold Ford Jr. D)- (Kerry 70%)- Likely D

TN Current: 5 D, 4 R
TN Predicted: 5 D, 4 R

Current thus far: 175 D, 192 R
Predicted:
185 D (150 Safe, 18 Likely, 8 Leans, 9 Tossup)
182 R (125 Safe, 35 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Texas

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Note: A handful of Congressional districts in Texas have been altered since the 2004 election. Since I do not have a list of how the newly formed districts voted in the 2004 Presidential election, the numbers will be given for all the Texas districts as they existed in 2004.)

1. Louie Gomhert R (GWB 69%)- Safe R
2. Ted Poe R (GWB 63%)- Safe R
3. Sam Johnson R (GWB 66%)- Safe R
4. Ralph Hall R (GWB 70%)- Safe R
5. Jeb Hensarling R (GWB 67%)- Safe R
6. Joe Barton R (GWB 66%)- Safe R
7. John Culberson R (GWB 64%)- Safe R
8. Kevin Brady R (GWB 72%)- Safe R
9. Al Green D (Kerry 70%)- Safe D
10. Michael McCaul R (GWB 61%)- Safe R
11. Michael Conaway R (GWB 78%)- Safe R
12. Kay Granger R (GWB 67%)- Safe R
13. William Thornberry R (GWB 77%)- Safe R
14. Ron Paul R (GWB 67%)- Safe R
15. Ruben Hinojosa D (GWB 55%)- Safe D
16. Silvestre Reyes D (Kerry 56%)- Safe D
17. Chet Edwards D (GWB 69%)- Leans D
18. Sheila Jackson-Lee D (Kerry 72%)- Safe D
19. Randy Neugebauer R (GWB 77%)- Safe R
20. Charlie Gonzalez D (Kerry 55%)- Safe D
21. Lamar Smith R (GWB 60%)- Safe R
22. Open (Tom DeLay R)- (GWB 64%)- Leans D
23. Henry Bonilla R (GWB 64%)- Likely R
24. Kenny Marchant R (GWB 65%)- Safe R
25. Lloyd Doggett D (Kerry 62%)- Safe D
26. Michael Burgess R (GWB 64%)- Safe R
27. Solomon Ortiz D (GWB 55%)- Safe D
28. Henry Cuellar D (GWB 52%)- Safe D
29. Gene Green D (Kerry 55%)- Safe D
30. Eddie Bernice Johnson D (Kerry 75%)- Safe D
31. John Carter R (GWB 66%)- Safe R
32. Pete Sessions R (GWB 59%)- Safe R

TX Current: 11 D, 21 R
TX Predicted: 12 D, 20 R

Current thus far: 186 D, 213 R
Predicted:
197 D (160 Safe, 18 Likely, 10 Leans, 9 Tossup)
202 R (144 Safe, 36 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Utah

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Rob Bishop R (GWB 73%)- Safe R
2. Jim Matheson D (GWB 66%)- Likely D
3. Chris Cannon R (GWB 77%)- Safe R

UT Current: 1 D, 2 R
UT Predicted: 1 D, 2 R

Current thus far: 187 D, 215 R
Predicted:
198 D (160 Safe, 19 Likely, 10 Leans, 9 Tossup)
204 R (146 Safe, 36 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Vermont

2004 Presidential result: Blue State (East)

1. Open (Bernard Sanders I who caucused with D)- (Kerry 59%)- Leans D

VT Current: 1 D and socialist, 0 R
VT Predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current thus far: 188 D, 215 R
Predicted:
199 D (160 Safe, 19 Likely, 11 Leans, 9 Tossup)
204 R (146 Safe, 36 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Virginia

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Jo Ann Davis R (GWB 60%)- Safe R
2. Thelma Drake R (GWB 58%)- Leans R
3. Robert Scott D (Kerry 66%)- Safe D
4. Randy Forbes R (GWB 57%)- Safe R
5. Virgil Goode R (GWB 56%)- Safe R
6. Robert Goodlatte R (GWB 63%)- Safe R
7. Eric Cantor R (GWB 61%)- Safe R
8. James Moran D (Kerry 64%)- Safe D
9. Rick Boucher D (GWB 59%)- Likely D
10. Frank Wolf R (GWB 55%)- Likely R
11. Thomas Davis R (GWB 50%)- Safe R

VA Current: 3 D, 8 R
VA Predicted: 3 D, 8 R

Current thus far: 191 D, 223 R
Predicted:
202 D (162 Safe, 20 Likely, 11 Leans, 9 Tossup)
212 R (152 Safe, 37 Likely, 14 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Washington

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

1. Jay Inslee D (Kerry 56%)- Safe D
2. Rick Larsen D (Kerry 51%)- Safe D
3. Brian Baird D (GWB 50%)- Safe D
4. Doc Hastings R (GWB 63%)- Safe R
5. Cathy McMorris R (GWB 57%)- Likely R
6. Norm Dicks D (Kerry 53%)- Safe D
7. Jim McDermott D (Kerry 79%)- Safe D
8. Dave Reichert R (Kerry 51%)- Leans R
9. Adam Smith D (Kerry 53%)- Safe D

WA Current: 6 D, 3 R
WA Predicted: 6 D, 3 R

Current thus far: 197 D, 226 R
Predicted:
208 D (168 Safe, 20 Likely, 11 Leans, 9 Tossup)
215 R (153 Safe, 38 Likely, 15 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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West Virginia

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Alan Mollohan D (GWB 58%)- Leans D
2. Shelley Moore Capito R (GWB 57%)- Likely R
3. Nick Rahall D (GWB 53%)- Safe D

WV Current: 2 D, 1 R
WV Predicted: 2 D, 1 R

Current thus far: 199 D, 227 R
Predicted:
210 D (169 Safe, 20 Likely, 12 Leans 9 Tossup)
216 R (153 Safe, 39 Likely, 15 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Wisconsin

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

1. Paul Ryan R (GWB 53%)- Safe R
2. Tammy Baldwin D (Kerry 62%)- Safe D
3. Ron Kind D (Kerry 51%)- Likely D
4. Gwen Moore D (Kerry 69%)- Safe D
5. James Sensenbrenner R (GWB 63%)- Safe R
6. Tom Petri R (GWB 56%)- Safe R
7. David Obey D (Kerry 50%)- Safe D
8. Open (Mark Green R)- (GWB 55%)- Leans R

WI Current: 4 D, 4 R
WI Predicted: 4 D, 4 R

Current thus far: 203 D, 231 R
Predicted:
214 D (172 Safe, 21 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)
220 R (156 Safe, 39 Likely, 16 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Wyoming

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Barbara Cubin R (GWB 69%)- Likely R

WY Current: 0 D, 1 R
WY Predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current Total: 203 D, 232 R
Predicted Total:
214 D (172 Safe, 21 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)
221 R (156 Safe, 40 Likely, 16 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Conclusion:

After examining every district in the country, I am forecasting a net gain for the Democrats of 11 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. That outcome would allow Republicans to hold on to the majority. I am predicting 12 seats to switch from Republican to Democrats and just one seat to switch from Republican to Democrat.

However, there are so many tossup and otherwise close races, that the outcome could easily be different. In the unlikely event, that every one of the closest races breaks for the Republican, gains by Democrats could be limited to just two seats. If thought, as many pundits suggest, every tossup race goes Democrat, the party could quite easily win 20 seats, and thus capture the majority for the first time in 12 years.

Furthermore, if there is a considerable national wave for Democrats, they could possibly have a showing that nets them up to 36 seats. That figure would be more in line with the historic results of sixth year Presidential midterm elections, but would still be well short of matching the GOP's pickup total of 1994.

The bottom line to all of this is that Republicans should absolutely be expected to lose seats in the House, but if enough will be lost to change the balance of power (not taking into account the possibility of Representatives voting against their parties' nominees for Speaker) should be considered a tossup at this time.