U.S. House Outlook- Volume 7

October 28, 2006
10 Days Until Election Day

Ohio

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

1. Steve Chabot R (GWB 50%)- Leans R
2. Jean Schmidt R (GWB 64%)- Likely R
3. Michael Turner R (GWB 54%)- Safe R
4. Open (Michael Oxley R)- (GWB 65%)- Safe R
5. Paul Gillmor R (GWB 61%)- Safe R
6. Open (Ted Strickland D)- (GWB 50%)- Likely D
7. David Hobson R (GWB 57%)- Safe R
8. John Boehner R (GWB 64%)- Safe R
9. Marcy Kaptur D (Kerry 58%)- Safe D
10. Dennis Kucinich D (Kerry 58%)- Safe D
11. Stephanie Tubbs Jones D (Kerry 81%)- Safe D
12. Pat Tiberi R (GWB 51%)- Likely R
13. Open (Sherrod Brown D)- (Kerry 56%)- Likely D
14. Steven LaTourette R (GWB 52%)- Safe R
15. Deborah Pryce R (GWB 50%)- Tossup (R)
16. Ralph Regula R (GWB 54%)- Safe R
17. Tim Ryan D (Kerry 63%)- Safe D
18. Open (Bob Ney R)- (GWB 57%)- Tossup (D)

OH Current: 6 D, 12 R
OH Predicted: 7 D, 11 R

Current thus far: 153 D, 167 R
Predicted:
161 D (133 Safe, 13 Likely, 8 Leans, 7 Tossup)
159 R (106 Safe, 33 Likely, 12 Leans, 8 Tossup)
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Oklahoma

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. John Sullivan R (GWB 65%)- Safe R
2. Dan Boren D (GWB 59%)- Safe D
3. Frank Lucas R (GWB 72%)- Safe R
4. Tom Cole R (GWB 67%)- Safe R
5. Open (Ernest Istook R)- (GWB 64%)- Safe R

OK Current: 1 D, 4 R
OK Predicted: 1 D, 4 R

Current thus far: 154 D, 171 R
Predicted:
162 D (134 Safe, 13 Likely, 8 Leans, 7 Tossup)
163 R (110 Safe, 33 Likely, 12 Leans, 8 Tossup)
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Oregon

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

1. David Wu D (Kerry 55%)- Likely D
2. Greg Walden R (GWB 61%)- Safe R
3. Earl Blumenauer D (Kerry 66%)- Safe D
4. Peter DeFazio D (Kerry 49%)- Safe D
5. Darlene Hooley D (GWB 50%)- Likely D

OR Current: 4 D, 1 R
OR Predicted: 4 D, 1 R

Current thus far: 158 D, 172 R
Predicted:
166 D (136 Safe, 15 Likely, 8 Leans, 7 Tossup)
164 R (111 Safe, 33 Likely, 12 Leans, 8 Tossup)
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Pennsylvania

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. Robert Brady D (Kerry 84%)- Safe D
2. Chaka Fattah D (Kerry 87%)- Safe D
3. Phil English R (GWB 53%)- Safe R
4. Melissa Hart R (GWB 54%)- Likely R
5. John Peterson R (GWB 61%)- Safe R
6. Jim Gerlach R (Kerry 51%)- Tossup (R)
7. Curt Weldon R (Kerry 53%)- Tossup (D)
8. Michael Fitzpatrick R (Kerry 51%)- Leans R
9. Bill Shuster R (GWB 67%)- Safe R
10. Don Sherwood R (GWB 60%)- Tossup (D)
11. Paul Kanjorski D (Kerry 52%)- Safe D
12. John Murtha D (Kerry 51%)- Likely D
13. Allyson Schwartz D (Kerry 56%)- Safe D
14. Mike Doyle D (Kerry 69%)- Safe D
15. Charlie Dent R (Kerry 50%)- Safe R
16. Joe Pitts R (GWB 61%)- Safe R
17. Tim Holden D (GWB 58%)- Safe D
18. Tim Murphy R (GWB 54%)- Likely R
19. Todd Platts R (GWB 64%)- Safe R

PA Current: 7 D, 12 R
PA Predicted: 9 D, 10 R

Current thus far: 165 D, 184 R
Predicted:
175 D (142 Safe, 16 Likely, 8 Leans, 9 Tossup)
174 R (117 Safe, 35 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)