U.S. House Outlook- Volume 6

October 27, 2006
11 Days Until Election Day

New Jersey

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. Robert Andrews D (Kerry 60%)- Safe D
2. Frank LoBiondo R (GWB 50%)- Safe R
3. James Saxton R (GWB 51%)- Safe R
4. Christopher Smith R (GWB 56%)- Safe R
5. Scott Garrett R (GWB 57%)- Likely R
6. Frank Pallone D (Kerry 56%)- Safe D
7. Mike Ferguson R (GWB 53%)- Leans R
8. Bill Pascrell D (Kerry 58%)- Safe D
9. Steven Rothman D (Kerry 58%)- Safe D
10. Donald Payne (Kerry 81%)- Safe D
11. Rodney Frelinghuysen R (GWB 57%)- Safe R
12. Rush Holt D (Kerry 54%)- Safe D
13. Open (Robert Menendez D)- (Kerry 68%)- Safe D

NJ Current: 7 D, 6 R
NJ Predicted: 7 D, 6 R

Current thus far: 119 D, 137 R
Predicted:
124 D (103 Safe, 9 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
132 R (92 Safe, 26 Likely, 9 Leans, 5 Tossup)
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New Mexico

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Heather Wilson R (Kerry 51%)- Tossup (R)
2. Steve Pearce R (GWB 58%)- Safe R
3. Tom Udall D (Kerry 54%)- Safe D

NM Current: 1 D, 2 R
NM Predicted: 1 D, 2 R

Current thus far: 120 D, 139 R
Predicted:
125 D (104 Safe, 9 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
134 R (93 Safe, 26 Likely, 9 Leans, 6 Tossup)
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New York

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. Timothy Bishop D (GWB 49%)- Likely D
2. Steve Israel D (Kerry 53%)- Safe D
3. Peter King R (GWB 52%)- Likely R
4. Carolyn McCarthy D (Kerry 55%)- Safe D
5. Gary Ackerman D (Kerry 63%)- Safe D
6. Gregory Meeks D (Kerry 84%)- Safe D
7. Joseph Crowley D (Kerry 74%)- Safe D
8. Jerrold Nadler D (Kerry 72%)- Safe D
9. Anthony Weiner D (Kerry 56%)- Safe D
10. Edolphus Towns D (Kerry 86%)- Safe D
11. Open (Major Owens D)- (Kerry 86%)- Safe D
12. Nydia Velazquez D (Kerry 80%)- Safe D
13. Vito Fossella R (GWB 55%)- Likely R
14. Carolyn Maloney D (Kerry 74%)- Safe D
15. Charles Rangel D (Kerry 90%)- Safe D
16. Jose Serrano D (Kerry 89%)- Safe D
17. Eliot Engel D (Kerry 66%)- Safe D
18. Nita Lowey D (Kerry 57%)- Safe D
19. Sue Kelly R (GWB 53%)- Likely R
20. John Sweeney R (GWB 53%)- Leans R
21. Michael McNulty D (Kerry 55%)- Safe D
22. Maurice Hinchey D (Kerry 53%)- Safe D
23. John McHugh R (GWB 51%)- Safe R
24. Open (Sherwood Boehlert R) - (GWB 52%)- Leans D
25. James Walsh R (Kerry 50%)- Likely R
26. Thomas Reynolds R (GWB 55%)- Tossup (R)
27. Brian Higgins D (Kerry 53%)- Safe D
28. Louise Slaughter D (Kerry 62%)- Safe D
29. Randy Kuhl R (GWB 56%)- Leans R

NY Current: 20 D, 9 R
NY Predicted: 21 D, 8 R

Current thus Far: 140 D, 148 R
Predicted:
146 D (123 Safe, 10 Likely, 8 Leans, 5 Tossup)
142 R (94 Safe, 30 Likely, 11 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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North Carolina

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. G.K. Butterfield D (Kerry 57%)- Safe D
2. Bob Etheridge D (GWB 55%)- Safe D
3. Walter Jones Jr. R (GWB 68%)- Safe R
4. David Price D (Kerry 55%)- Safe D
5. Virginia Foxx R (GWB 67%)- Safe R
6. Howard Coble R (GWB 69%)- Safe R
7. Mike McIntyre D (GWB 56%)- Safe D
8. Robin Hayes R (GWB 54%)- Likely R
9. Sue Myrick R (GWB 63%)- Safe R
10. Patrick McHenry R (GWB 67%)- Safe R
11. Charles Taylor R (GWB 57%)- Tossup (D)
12. Melvin Watt D (Kerry 63%)- Safe D
13. Brad Miller D (Kerry 53%)- Safe D

NC Current: 6 D, 7 R
NC Predicted: 7 D, 6 R

Current thus far: 146 D, 155 R
Predicted:
153 D (129 Safe, 10 Likely, 8 Leans, 6 Tossup)
148 R (99 Safe, 31 Likely, 11 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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North Dakota

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

1. Earl Pomeroy D (GWB 63%)- Likely D

ND Current: 1 D, 0 R
ND Predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current thus far: 147 D, 155 R
Predicted:
154 D (129 Safe, 11 Likely, 8 Leans, 6 Tossup)
148 R (99 Safe, 31 Likely, 11 Leans, 7 Tossup)