U.S. House Outlook- Volume 4

October 24, 2006
14 Days Until Election Day

Maryland

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. Wayne Gilchrest R (GWB 62%)- Safe R
2. Dutch Ruppersberger D (Kerry 54 %)- Safe D
3. Open (Ben Cardin D)- (Kerry 54 %)- Likely D
4. Albert Wynn D (Kerry 78 %)- Safe D
5. Steny Hoyer D (Kerry 57 %)- Safe D
6. Roscoe Bartlett R (GWB 65 %)- Safe R
7. Elijah Cummings D (Kerry 73 %)- Safe D
8. Chris Van Hollen D (Kerry 69 %)- Safe D

MD current: 6 D, 2 R
MD predicted: 6 D, 2 R

Current thus far: 85 D, 103 R
Predicted:
90 D (72 Safe, 6 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
98 R (73 Safe, 15 Likely, 6 Leans, 4 Tossup)
__________________________________

Massachusetts

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. John Olver D (Kerry 63%)- Safe D
2. Richard Neal D (Kerry 59%)- Safe D
3. Jim McGovern D (Kerry 59%)- Safe D
4. Barney Frank D (Kerry 65 %)- Safe D
5. Martin Meehan D (Kerry 57%)- Safe D
6. John Tierney D (Kerry 58%)- Safe D
7. Edward Markey D (Kerry 66%)- Safe D
8. Michael Capuano D (Kerry 82%)- Safe D
9. Stephen Lynch D (Kerry 61%)- Safe D
10. Bill Delahunt D (Kerry 56 %)- Safe D

MA current: 10 D, 0 R
MA predicted: 10 D, 0 R

Current thus far: 95 D, 103 R
Predicted:
100 D (82 Safe, 6 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
98 R (73 Safe, 15 Likely, 6 Leans, 4 Tossup)
_____________________________________

Michigan

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

1. Bart Stupak D (GWB 53%)- Safe D
2. Peter Hoekstra R (GWB 60%)- Safe R
3. Vernon Ehlers R (GWB 59%)- Safe R
4. Dave Camp R (GWB 55%)- Safe R
5. Dale Kildee D (Kerry 59%)- Safe D
6. Fred Upton R (GWB 53%)- Safe R
7. Open (Joe Schwarz R)- (GWB 54%)- Likely R
8. Mike Rogers R (GWB 54%)- Likely R
9. Joe Knollenberg R (GWB 50%)- Likely R
10. Candice Miller R (GWB 56%)- Safe R
11. Thad McCotter R (GWB 52%)- Safe R
12. Sander Levin D (Kerry 60%)- Safe D
13. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D (Kerry 80%)- Safe D
14. John Conyers D (Kerry 82%)- Safe D
15. John Dingell D (Kerry 61%)- Safe D

MI Current: 6 D, 9 R
MI Predicted: 6 D, 9 R

Current thus far: 101 D, 112 R
Predicted:
106 D (88 Safe, 6 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
107 R (79 Safe, 18 Likely, 6 Leans, 4 Tossup)