U.S. House Outlook- Volume 1

October 21, 2006
17 Days Until Election Day

Alabama

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Jo Bonner R (GWB 64%)- Safe R
2. Terry Everett R (GWB 66%)- Safe R
3. Mike Rogers R (GWB 58 %)- Safe R
4. Robert Aderholt R (GWB 71 %)- Safe R
5. Robert Cramer D (GWB 60 %)- Safe D
6. Spencer Bachus R (GWB 78 %)- Safe R
7. Artur Davis D (Kerry 64 %)- Safe D

AL current: 2 D, 5 R
AL predicted: 2 D, 5 R

Current thus far: 2 D, 5 R
Predicted:
2 D (2 Safe)
5 R (5 Safe)
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Alaska

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Don Young R (GWB 61 %)- Safe R

AK current: 0 D, 1 R
AK predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current thus far: 2 D, 6 R
Predicted:
2 D (2 Safe)
6 R (6 Safe)
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Arizona

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Rick Renzi R (GWB 54%)- Likely R
2. Trent Franks R (GWB 61 %)- Safe R
3. John Shadegg R (GWB 58 %)- Safe R
4. Ed Pastor D (Kerry 62 %)- Safe D
5. J.D. Hayworth R (GWB 54 %)- Likely R
6. Jeff Flake R (GWB 64 %)- Safe R
7. Raul Grijalva D (Kerry 57%)- Safe D
8. Open (Jim Kolbe R)- (GWB 53 %)- Leans D

AZ current: 2 D, 6 R
AZ predicted: 3 D, 5 R

Current thus far: 4 D, 12 R
Predicted:
5 D (4 Safe, 1 Leans)
11 R (9 Safe, 2 Likely)
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Arkansas

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Marion Berry D (GWB 52 %)- Safe D
2. Vic Snyder D (GWB 51 %)- Likely D
3. John Boozman R (GWB 62 %)- Safe R
4. Mike Ross D (GWB 51 %)- Safe D

AR current: 3 D, 1 R
AR predicted: 3 D, 1 R

Current thus far: 7 D, 13 R
Predicted:
8 D (6 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)
12 R (10 Safe, 2 Likely)
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California

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

1. Mike Thompson D (Kerry 60 %)- Safe D
2. Wally Herger R (GWB 62 %)- Safe R
3. Dan Lungren R (GWB 58 %)- Safe R
4. John Doolittle R (GWB 61 %)- Likely R
5. Doris Matsui D (Kerry 61%)- Safe D
6. Lynn Woolsey D (Kerry 70 %)- Safe D
7. George Miller D (Kerry 67 %)- Safe D
8. Nancy Pelosi D (Kerry 84 %)- Safe D
9. Barbara Lee D (Kerry 86 %)- Safe D
10. Ellen Tauscher D (Kerry 58 %)- Safe D
11. Richard Pombo R (GWB 54 %)- Likely R
12. Tom Lantos D (Kerry 72 %)- Safe D
13. Pete Stark D (Kerry 71 %)- Safe D
14. Anna Eshoo D (Kerry 68 %)- Safe D
15. Michael Honda D (Kerry 63 %)- Safe D
16. Zoe Lofgren D (Kerry 63 %)- Safe D
17. Sam Farr D (Kerry 66 %)- Safe D
18. Dennis Cardonza D (GWB 50 %)- Safe D
19. George Radanovich R (GWB 61 %)- Safe R
20. Jim Costa D (Kerry 51 %)- Safe D
21. Devin Nunes R (GWB 65 %)- Safe R
22. Open (Bill Thomas R)- (GWB 68 %)- Safe R
23. Lois Capps D (Kerry 58 %)- Safe D
24. Elton Gallegly R (GWB 56 %)- Safe R
25. Buck McKeon R (GWB 59 %)- Safe R
26. David Dreier R (GWB 55 %)- Likely R
27. Brad Sherman D (Kerry 59 %)- Safe D
28. Howard Berman D (Kerry 71 %)- Safe D
29. Adam Schiff D (Kerry 61 %)- Safe D
30. Henry Waxman D (Kerry 66 %)- Safe D
31. Xavier Beccerra D (Kerry 77 %)- Safe D
32. Hilda Solis D (Kerry 62 %)- Safe D
33. Diane Watson D (Kerry 83 %)- Safe D
34. Lucille Roybal-Allard D (Kerry 69 %)- Safe D
35. Maxine Waters D (Kerry 79 %)- Safe D
36. Jane Harman D (Kerry 59 %)- Safe D
37. Juanita Millender-McDonald D (Kerry 74 %)- Safe D
38. Grace Napolitano D (Kerry 65 %)- Safe D
39. Linda Sanchez D (Kerry 59 %)- Safe D
40. Ed Royce R (GWB 60 %)- Safe R
41. Jerry Lewis R (GWB 62 %)- Safe R
42. Gary Miller R (GWB 62 %)- Safe R
43. Joe Baca D (Kerry 58 %)- Safe D
44. Ken Calvert R (GWB 59 %)- Safe R
45. Mary Bono R (GWB 56 %)- Safe R
46. Dana Rohrabacher R (GWB 57 %)- Safe R
47. Loretta Sanchez D (GWB 50 %)- Safe D
48. John Campbell R (GWB 58 %)- Safe R
49. Darrell Issa R (GWB 62 %)- Safe R
50. Brian Bilbray R (GWB 55 %)- Likely R
51. Bob Filner D (Kerry 53 %)- Safe D
52. Duncan Hunter R (GWB 61 %)- Safe R
53. Susan Davis D (Kerry 61 %)- Safe D

CA current: 33 D, 20 R
CA predicted: 33 D, 20 R

Current thus far: 40 D, 33 R
Predicted:
41 D (39 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)
32 R (26 Safe, 6 Likely)
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Colorado

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Diana DeGette D (Kerry 68%)- Safe D
2. Mark Udall D (Kerry 58 %)- Safe D
3. John Salazar D (GWB 55 %)- Likely D
4. Marilyn Musgrave R (GWB 58 %)- Likely R
5. Open (Joel Hefley R)- (GWB 66 %)- Likely R
6. Tom Tancredo R (GWB 60 %)- Safe R
7. Open (Bob Beauprez R)- (Kerry 51 %)- Tossup (D)

CO current: 3 D, 4 R
CO predicted: 4 D, 3 R

Current thus far: 43 D, 37 R
Predicted:
45 D (41 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)
35 R (27 Safe, 8 Likely)
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Connecticut

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. John Larson D (Kerry 60 %)- Safe D
2. Rob Simmons R (Kerry 54 %)- Tossup (R)
3. Rosa DeLauro D (Kerry 56 %)- Safe D
4. Christopher Shays R (Kerry 52 %)- Tossup (R)
5. Nancy Johnson R (Kerry 49 %)- Leans R

CT current: 2 D, 3 R
CT predicted: 2 D, 3 R

Current thus far: 45 D, 40 R
Predicted:
47 D (43 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)
38 R (27 Safe, 8 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)
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Delaware

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. Michael Castle R (Kerry 53 %)- Safe R

DE current: 0 D, 1 R
DE predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current thus far: 45 D, 41 R
Predicted:
47 D (43 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)
39 R (28 Safe, 8 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)