U.S. House Outlook- Volume 2

October 22, 2006
16 Days Until Election Day

Florida

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Jeff Miller R (GWB 72 %)- Safe R
2. Allen Boyd D (GWB 54 %)- Safe D
3. Corrine Brown D (Kerry 65 %)- Safe D
4. Ander Crenshaw R (GWB 67 %)- Safe R
5. Ginny Brown-Waite R (GWB 58 %)- Safe R
6. Cliff Stearns R (GWB 61 %)- Safe R
7. John Mica R (GWB 57 %)- Safe R
8. Ric Keller R (GWB 55 %)- Likely R
9. Open (Michael Bilirakis R)- (GWB 57 %)- Likely R
10. Bill Young R (GWB 51 %)- Safe R
11. Open (Jim Davis D)- (Kerry 60 %)- Safe D
12. Adam Putnam R (GWB 58 %)- Safe R
13. Open (Katherine Harris R)- (GWB 56 %)- Leans R
14. Connie Mack IV R (GWB 61 %)- Safe R
15. Dave Weldon R (GWB 57 %)- Safe R
16. Open (Mark Foley R)- (GWB 55 %)- Leans D- (name remains on ballot)
17. Kendrick Meek D (Kerry 83 %)- Safe D
18. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen R (GWB 54 %)- Safe R
19. Robert Wexler D (Kerry 66 %)- Safe D
20. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz D (Kerry 63 %)- Safe D
21. Lincoln Diaz-Balart R (GWB 57 %)- Safe R
22. Clay Shaw R (Kerry 51 %)- Leans R
23. Alcee Hastings D (Kerry 78 %)- Safe D
24. Tom Feeney R (GWB 56 %)- Safe R
25. Mario Diaz-Balart R (GWB 56 %)- Safe R

FL current: 7 D, 18 R
FL predicted: 8 D, 17 R

Current thus far: 52 D, 59 R
Predicted:
55 D (50 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)
56 R (41 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)
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Georgia

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

(Note: The 2004 Presidential election district figures represent the totals from before the drawing of the new map. I do not have a complete list of the new district figures. The districts will be presented as they will be numbered in the next Congress.)

1. Jack Kingston R (GWB 68 %)- Safe R
2. Sanford Bishop D (GWB 53 %)- Safe D
3. Lynn Westmoreland R (GWB 73 %)- Safe R
4. Open (Cynthia McKinney D)- (Kerry 71 %)- Safe D
5. John Lewis D (Kerry 72 %)- Safe D
6. Tom Price R (GWB 70 %) Safe R
7. John Linder R (GWB 73 %)- Safe R
8. Jim Marshall D (GWB 56 %)- Tossup (D)
9. Nathan Deal R (GWB 76 %)- Safe R
10. Charlie Norwood R (GWB 72 %)- Safe R
11. Phil Gingrey R (GWB 55 %)- Safe R
12. John Barrow D (Kerry 53 %)- Tossup (R)
13. David Scott D (Kerry 62 %)- Safe D

GA current: 6 D, 7 R
GA predicted: 5 D, 8 R

Current thus far: 58 D, 66 R
Predicted: 60 D (54 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)
64 R (48 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
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Hawai'i

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

1. Neil Abercrombie D (Kerry 52 %)- Safe D
2. Open (Ed Case D)- (Kerry 56 %)- Likely D

HI current: 2 D, 0 R
HI predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current thus far: 60 D, 66 R
Predicted: 62 D (55 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)
64 R (48 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
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Idaho

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Open (Butch Otter R)- (GWB 68 %)- Likely R
2. Mike Simpson R (GWB 68 %)- Safe R

ID current: 0 D, 2 R
ID predicted: 0 D, 2 R

Current this far: 60 D, 68 R
Predicted: 62 D (55 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)
66 R (49 Safe, 11 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
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Illinois

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

1. Boby Rush D (Kerry 83 %)- Safe D
2. Jesse Jackson Jr. D (Kerry 84 %)- Safe D
3. Daniel Lipinksi D (Kerry 59 %)- Safe D
4. Luis Gutierrez D (Kerry 79 %)- Safe D
5. Rahm Emanuel D (Kerry 67 %)- Safe D
6. Open (Henry Hyde R )- (GWB 53 %)- Leans R
7. Danny Davis D (Kerry 83 %)- Safe D
8. Melissa Bean D (GWB 55 %) - Tossup (D)
9. Jan Schakowsky D (Kerry 68 %)- Safe D
10. Mark Kirk R (Kerry 52 %)- Likely R
11. Jerry Weller R (GWB 53 %)- Safe R
12. Jerry Costello D (Kerry 52 %)- Safe D
13. Judy Biggert R (GWB 55 %)- Safe R
14. Dennis Hastert R (GWB 55 %)- Safe R
15. Tim Johnson R (GWB 58 %)- Safe R
16. Donald Manzullo R (GWB 55 %)- Safe R
17. Open (Lane Evans D)- (Kerry 51 %)- Leans D
18. Ray LaHood R (GWB 58 %)- Safe R
19. John Shimkus R (GWB 61 %)- Safe R

IL current: 10 D, 9 R
IL predicted: 10 D, 9 R

Current thus far: 70 D, 77 R
Predicted: 72 D (63 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
75 R (56 Safe, 12 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)