White House Race- August 24, 2024

73 Days Until Election Day

To say the least, there is so much ground that could be covered in this post. We have now entered what is basically the homestretch of the Presidential election. Things look very different than they did just a bit over a month ago. There is irrational overconfidence on both sides in regards to victory. We should expect a very competitive race. However, in my view, one party clearly has the momentum. As has often been the case, watching the convention of a major political party reminds me just how much I do not belong in that party or the other one. Nonetheless, I find myself more comfortable to at least be rooting for the Democrats in this election. I will absolutely find myself disagreeing with them on many matters in the future, and I will hope there will be a viable, organized political effort to oppose their bad ideas and excesses. However, in 2024, once again, it all comes down to one thing and one thing only. Donald Trump cannot and must not be President of the United States.

I will try to as briefly as possible summarize the events of the past week and my thoughts about them. Much will be left out. Let me start with some good news, especially as it relates to my home of Chicagoland. This convention went off pretty well. The demonstrations inside the hall, except for one incident, were basically nothing, and outside the hall, there were no real clashes at all between police and protesters. The Chicago Police Department deserves a ton of praise. The city came away from this event in a positive light.  Much of the message coming from radical anti-Israel extremists was of course disgusting, but it is the right of every American to speak. The sheer numbers of protestors, were far, far less than what had been promised and what many anticipated. While there would have been more incidents if Joe Biden were still the nominee, I think we have now reached the point, where Democrats and their coalition, are willing to largely out aside their differences over the Middle East, and there are indeed some very deep divisions, for now. All of this will be revisited in the future. For now though, it is mostly about "vibes" and Democrats are feeling some pretty good vibes under Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. It is remarkable to recall just how vocally opposed some Democrats were to dropping Biden from the ticket and having him replaced by Harris. The fact that she is a more effective messenger and candidate should be abundantly clear to all by this point. It is laughable to think that people who wanted to drop Biden were called "racist" and "sexist."in their efforts to perhaps nominate the first black female and first Asian-American person for President of the United States.

Night one of the DNC was fairly effective, if you ignore the serious scheduling errors. Why did they not just start the program 90 minutes earlier?  My favorite speaker of the night was Steve Kerr, who of course had some big moments in the United Center back in the day. I was wondering if we would get a surprise Michael Jordan appearance at the convention. We did not. The 1990's Chicago Bulls were referenced a lot though, although I do not recall hearing anything about the 2010's Chicago Blackhawks dynasty that also called the UC home.

The prime time hours were taken up by Hillary Clinton and others who were well received in the hall. However, the program ran way late and the 82 year old President of the United States, who we have been told by his staff is not as effective in late hours, was basically relegated to after 10:30 local time (later on the east coast) to give a speech that lasted about an hour. I was thinking that for his sake, I hope he had taken a nap. There is no doubt that less people saw Biden speak at the later hour than would have been the case had he gone earlier. Apparently, this was not an intentional snub or a desire to keep him somewhat hidden. It just ran late.

In any event, it was a big moment for Joe Biden, who is rightfully being hailed by his party for having been willing to step aside. He spoke too long on Monday night in my view, and basically gave what amounted to the acceptance speech he had been planning to give, but he delivered his message forcefully and though he never mentioned the word Obama, looked towards the future, and strongly "passed the torch" to Kamala Harris. As he did in his Inaugural Address, he closed out his speech by quoting the lyrics to the song "American Anthem" that says , "America, America, I gave my best to you." This was basically him closing the chapter on a 50 year plus national political career. I thought it was a very moving moment. One does not necessarily have to be a Biden fan to appreciate the sentiment of those thoughts. What a contrast to Donald Trump, who has only ever believed in taking for himself and could never understand the concept of sacrifice. Also, I was somewhat shocked, but not displeased, that Biden somehow threw in a line praising Henry Kissinger on something. That was not on my Bingo card.

 

There was just one demonstration during the Biden speech, and I applaud the delegates who were standing near a large unauthorized "Stop Israel" banner by using their "I Love Joe" placards to bat it down. On an unrelated note, this sort of large scale convention is perhaps the biggest sign yet that we are past the Covid 19 era. I would probably still be a bit worried about the attendees. These were a lot of people, (a good deal more overall than were at the recent Republican convention)  in very close quarters, for long times at once, largely engaging in conversation and yelling. Some of them are definitely going to catch the virus (and who knows what else) from being at the convention. Hopefully, those people will be ok.

Night two was pretty good for the party. Early on, they did the official Roll Call vote which went off basically without any sort of protest vote. For the first time ever, there was a DJ who played songs while the delegations were casting their votes, which was supposed to be related to the particular state. I have recently become somewhat active on Twitter (though remaining anonymous for the most part) and it was fun to comment on the choices and speculate on what would be to come. Indeed, there were some questionable music choices and perhaps baggage related to some artists, but it was a pretty amazing event. For one thing, the music sort of made the announcement sped up. It was like a huge party and people were loving it. Democrats have managed to change convention roll call forever. They will have to keep this up and Republicans are going to have to try to up their game. I find it hard to see how they would be able to match it. The only real issue was that Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers seemed to choke when it was his turn to announce the votes for Harris. Something was clearly going wrong and I commented on Twitter, "Tony Evers is drunk off his ass", and somehow that Tweet got a ton more attention than anything else I have put on their yet. I avoided listening to a second of Bernie Sanders address the convention.

Later on in the evening, potential First Gentleman Doug Emhoff spoke and did just fine, but was hardly memorable. Still, a proud moment perhaps for Jewish-Americans. He spoke a bit about his efforts in combating anti-Semitism, but did not say anything positive about Israel. After all, that would have been very controversial in the hall and divisive for Democrats overall. Most of the attention on Tuesday night went to the speeches, first by former First Lady Michelle Obama and then by former President Barack Obama.  I think Michelle might have done a bit better even, and I can imagine the red hot rage Donald Trump must have felt watching her tear him to shreds. Both Obamas went after Trump in a very hard way. This convention was very,.very, very negative towards Trump. Who can blame them though? I remarked that I disagreed with probably 90 percent of the policy items discussed by Democrats (which seemed to largely be limited to abortions for all) but agreed with at least 90 percent of the Trump bashing.

 

In his speech, former President Obama called for "grace" with people who might support Trump or who do not agree with them on every issue. I think that message is very correct, and Obama often spoke words like that in big speeches. However, as President, he often fell well-short. People who disagreed with him on anything (including his fellow Democrats at times) were dismissed as lacking in integrity. Obamaphiles, with the support of his political operation, tried to call any opposition to him as being motivated by race. These were all things that made us more divided and made Donald Trump and all that he has since wrought possible.

Night three featured the parents of an American-Israeli hostage speak and I was heartened by the positive reception they received and the chants of "Bring Them Home." Still, nobody at this convention had been allowed to express solidarity with Israel itself or to directly cast the appropriate blame on Hamas. Another highlight for me was the speech by former Georgia Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan who called on Republicans to vote for Harris. He made some good points.

However, whatever he might have achieved was undone by the appearance and fairly lengthy speech of a visibly and audibly past his prime Bill Clinton. If anything, they should have put him on in a less prominent. While I agreed with many things he said about Trump and Trump's ego, it all felt extremely hypocritical coming from Clinton, who behaved in similar ways as President (though definitely not to extent.) Also. I suppose people who have been credibly accused of sexual assault are alright with Democrats, as long as they agree with them on the issues.

After hearing from Oprah then from a bevy of other 2028/2032 Dem hopefuls (those inevitable debates are going to be brutal) , it was finally time for Tim Walz. However, Walz became the second older white guy to have been kept off television until way after prime time. The show was running quite late again. When he spoke, I thought Walz gave a very effective, though pretty short speech. It was all about "vibes"and more of a pep talk from a football coach than anything that resembled any sort of policy recommendation, but it came across well. People mostly remember the emotional reaction of the Governor's family, including his 17 year old son Gus. Some people may not have known that Gus can be classified as a special needs child. Regardless of that, I think the love he showed for his father was a great thing. Predictably, some on the right proved to be their own worst enemy. Attacking Gus was simply horrific. Somebody at the Trump campaign probably had to work very hard to keep the phone way from the candidate so he would not attack the teenage son of the VP nominee for crying and showing his love for his Dad.

Online, supporters of Democrats were quick to defend the Walzes and harsh towards the grotesque attacks on them. I am glad. However, I am also old enough to remember 2008. Back then, a lot of Democrats online, and perhaps some of the very same people, watched the Republican convention and had a lot of jokes and negative things to say about 17 year old Bristol Palin,who was pregnant at the time. Even more so, they attacked and joked about Trig Palin, then an infant, who has Down's Syndrome. I thought that was horrible at the time and still do. I probably should not skip the fact that some people, such as Rosie O'Donnell mocked and made ridiculous allegations about Barron Trump, who has just recently turned 18,and has never made a public statement.

On Thursday night, there was a rumor about a special "surprise guest" who would appear during the primetime hour of the convention. Who could it be? Beyonce? Taylor Swift? A surprise endorsement by George W. Bush? Anthony Hopkins appearing as "the late, great Hannibal Lecter" to break Trump's heart? Basically, it was a ruse. There was no big surprise (though I appreciated the good exposure during prime time for former Illinois Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger.) Did someone lie about this just to generate higher rating for Kamala Harris's speech? I am not sure what to think about all that. The focus turned out to just about her though,and that was probably a good thing.

Again, I have never been a Democrat, and so much of her speech was not something I would find much agreement with (perhaps other than strong support for Ukraine), but VP Harris was pretty good at what she did, especially in terms of delivery. She looked Presidential. She sounded Presidential.  She did not dwell on the historic nature of her nomination, in the way that an Obama or Hillary Clinton once had. It was all about business. She did get into some policy aspects (even though she is continuing to avoid media interaction) and was very harsh on Donald Trump.  Above all else, she came across as a decent, even likable human being. She also happens to be under 80 years old. Having that fact on he side, as well as not being Donald Trump, makes her a very strong candidate in 2024.

I have to say that I was somewhat pleasantly surprised that she did indeed openly express support for Israel, and many people cheered. Then, she segued into a remark that some will interpret as being critical of Israel, and even more people cheered. I will choose to focus on the former though. Harris maintained that Israel has the right to defend itself and that Hamas was the party responsible for the brutal and unprecedented terror visited on innocent civilians last October.

My initial thought watching her speech, besides how much better she is for this election season than Biden, is that Donald Trump is in huge political trouble. To be expected, he was melting down on Truth Social in real time, talking about Hunter Biden and whining about how horrible it is that people call Tim Walz "coach" when he was merely an assistant coach. Right after the speech, Trump called into Fox News and was put on the air. It sounded like he was hyperventilating. They had to get him off the air to get to the Gutfeld Show. He then called Gutfeld's cell phone and Gutfeld had to get rid of him after a short time too.

Democrats left Chicago feeling pretty good about themselves and their chances. What a turnaround from what they must have been feeling after the Trump-Biden debate. The Republican convention, which people thought was effective, at least up until Trump's monumentally weird rambling acceptance speech, was pretty much all about Trump/ The Democrat convention (while also largely being about Trump) did a fair better job in speaking positively about the country and once again using patriotic symbols in a way that Republicans used to have the advantage pre-Trump. Of course, I have to note the irony that Democrats have had the White House for the past four years and eight out of the last 12, and they seem to want to soft-pedal that factual reality. All the great things they say they want to do, have yet to be done.

The big story on Friday was that after a period of speculation, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his fledging Independent Presidential campaign, even though he stated it was merely a suspension, during an announcement in Arizona. Kennedy, remarkably, still wants to remain on the ballot and have people vote for him in strongly red and blue states. Talk about vanity! A Kennedy wants to Kennedy though, and I have had many thoughts about the Kennedy clan for a long time. He is though taking his name off the ballot in swing states and encouraging voters to support Donald Trump. Needless to say, many other Kennedys, including most of his siblings, totally disagree. His wife, the actress Cheryl Hines finds herself in an awkward position. She may never act in Hollywood again.

When Biden was still in the race, Kennedy was hurting him more than Trump. When Harris replaced Biden, many Kennedy voters went back to being Democrats. The smaller share of the vote he was taking was coming more from Trump. So, his getting out and supporting Trump, has to help the Republican, at least marginally, but probably only marginally. Nonetheless, MAGA thinks this is the greatest thing ever.

I have long thought RFK Jr.w as not a well man, and in his display at the event yesterday, he solidified that. He seemed to infer that Trump had promised him a job in exchange for support. That might be illegal. We also know that Kennedy had approached the Harris camp to try to negotiate something similar with them. Smartly, they turned him down.  Kennedy went down an absolute rabbit hole of conspiracy theories regarding vaccines and other matters. Apparently, they want Trump to denounce Operation Warp Speed, and I think Trump is going to be perfectly willing to dismiss his own Administration's record on the Covid vaccine just to get the votes they think they need. Kennedy also went on and on about the obesity epidemic and processed foods (ironic for someone endorsing Trump) and advocated such ridiculous big government ideas as mandating that all Americans eat three organic meals a day. Yet, Trump supporters, who claim to be conservative, are now in love with RFK Jr. The former candidate inferred that he believed the Lord himself has tasked him with saving children from disease and that only Trump will allow him to fulfill his destiny as a Kennedy to do that. Kennedy and Trump truly deserve each other. RFK Jr. also made it very clear that he was opposed to any U.S. aid for Ukraine and we can expect that Trump agrees with him.

Kennedy was very harsh on Biden, Harris, and Democrats in his endorsement of Trump. He claims that since he was shut out of appearing in a primary debate against Biden, when he was still running as a Democrat (and the general election debate) that it was proof that Democrats had become "anti-democratic." Of course no incumbent President has ever debated a primary opponent. Does he not realize that Donald Trump did not in 2020 and that the RNC did the same things to rig those primaries that Democrats did in 2024 for Biden? Trump never took part in a primary debate in 2024 either. Robert Kennedy Jr. is a complete joke.

Later on in the day, Kennedy took the stage at a Trump rally while the song. "My Hero" played. The Foo Fighters are now threatening to sue over that. I would like to really know what is going on in the minds of these two egotistical, detached from reality nepo-babies as they politically embrace each other. Not long ago, Kennedy was calling Trump a "sociopath", but Trump's own running-mate JD Vance has said even worse, so perhaps not too big of a deal there. However, Trump was attacking the candidacy of Kennedy and saying that RFK was  a far left liberal extremist (not entirely wrong) and that he was even worse than Biden (I agree.) Yes, Trump thought that RFK Jr. was "worse than Biden" but now thinks he is a terrific person "respected by everyone"and is going to be in line to be FDA Commissioner or whatever. Trust me when I say this. If Trump somehow does win this election,. RFK Jr. will not get squat. Right now, Trump is a desperate politician, looking for any sort of lifeline he can find.

Hopefully, I will not have to write as much next weekend. I find it somewhat odd that there are no real events this weekend for the Harris/Walz campaign. Why would they not want to take advantage of any potential "bounce" from the convention? Likely, most of that bounce occurred about four weeks ago when she replaced Biden and re-shaped the election. Trump and his ilk have yet to recover. The next big event will be (at least one) September debate. Can Harris make the case as effectively for herself and against Trump as she was able to do at the convention, without a teleprompter? She cannot do worse than Biden did in June. We will see what happens, but the self-immolation of Donald Trump is continuing and he should be very afraid