Montana U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Montana U.S. Senate

79 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Tossup (R)

Control of the U.S. Senate, and with that, lifetime federal judicial nominations, may wind up coming down to a few thousand or even a few hundred votes in Montana this year. The Democrat incumbent is a known political survivor but he is likely facing his biggest challenge yet.

Back in 2006, Democrat Jon Tester, a burly farmer with a flattop haircut, took advantage of a favorable national environment and a very vulnerable Republican incumbent to take over a U.S. Senate seat. His margin of victory though was just one point, when polls had showed Tester with a larger lead. More so, the the nearly three percent that went to the Libertarian nominee likely sealed the victory for the Democrat. Tester had been a "netroots" favorite in that cycle and was thought of as an ardent liberal populist. Some blogger types have been disappointed that Tester has had a somewhat more moderate voting record in the Senate that they expected, but he had political considerations at home to factor. In 2012, Tester won a battleground contest for reelection with 49 percent, but the seven percent that went to the Libertarian was again more than enough to make up the difference. In 2018, Republicans, led by then President Donald Trump worked very hard to target Tester for defeat. A crowded Republican primary had been won by State Auditor Matt Rosendale, and Trump made several appearances in the state on his behalf. The incumbent managed to prevail, barely surpassing 50 percent of the vote for the first time, with a three point victory over Rosendale, that margin being just a bit above what the Libertarian received.

Now, in 2024, Tester is seeking a fourth term and Trump is on the ballot this year for President. He is said to hold a huge personal grudge against Tester and has been very focused on this race, as seen by a recent campaign rally in Montana, which is certainly not considered a battleground state for President. There is one thing Democrats can be certain of and that is that they are very lucky Tester decided to run, knowing the odds he faced. If this were an open seat, as such is the case in West Virginia, Democrats would have virtually no chance of holding this seat. In a June primary, the incumbent received a whopping 97 percent of the primary vote.

Republicans have been targeting this seat from the get-go. Originally, it looked like it could come down to a battle between the state's two Republican Congressman. Montana had only recently gained an additional Congressional seat. Not long ago, the state was represented by Ryan Zinke, but he had left to become Trump's Secretary of the Interior, where he would have a bit of a rocky ride in that role. In 2020, Rosendale had rebounded from his disappointing Senate loss to win the at-large Congressional seat. Two years later, Rosendale won one half of the state to back to Capitol Hill and the new district was claimed by Zinke.

Party leaders clearly favored Zinke as more of a team player than the iconoclastic Rosendale. It looked like the two men were headed for a bruising primary and there were concerns that Trump would throw in with Rosendale. Zinke decided his safer option was to remain in the House, and after a period of much anticipation, Rosendale entered the Senate race, fully expecting to receive Trump's endorsement. That did not happen. Hours later, Capitol Hill Republicans persuaded the ex-President to instead endorse Tim Sheehy, a young, telegenic aerospace company CEO who had been a Navy SEAL and served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Rosendale was dumbfounded. He immediately pledged to continue his campaign, but less than a week after he got into the Senate race, he got out. In his Sheehy endorsement, Trump seemed to encourage Rosendale to run again for his House seat, which he began doing again, only to eventually drop out under mysterious circumstances. Congressman Rosendale has claimed that rumors about his personal life and possible illegal activity have caused "death threats" against him and have made it impossible to do his job.

Sheehy took 74 percent of the primary vote, with his closest opponent, former Secretary of State and former State Public Service Commission Chair Brad Johnson taking 19 percent. Republicans across the political spectrum seem pretty bullish on Sheehy and his ability to win this Senate seat, although there have been some questions raised about his business record. The Republican was featured at his party's recent national convention, while Senator Tester is making what is probably the wise decision of staying home in Montana, instead of joining national Democrats this coming week in Chicago.

With this particular Montana Senate seat being so tight in recent history, there is reason to pay attention to the presence of the Green Party candidate, who might take left-wing votes from Tester, and especially the Libertarian nominee, which has proved very damaging for past Tester opponents. This year, the Libertarian is Kalispell City Councilman Sid Daoud. Republicans very much want him out of the race. Daoud recently attended the big Trump rally, which included Sheehy. The Presidential nominee made several references to the third party candidate not by name, but as "our Libertarian" and praising him repeatedly. Trump seemed to claim that Daoud was going to surprise and please the Republican audience very soon, which led many to speculate that he was about to drop out of the race in favor of Sheehy. Since that point, Daoud is saying he is a stubborn Army veteran who is resisting pressure to get out of the race. What he ultimately decides could be very important.

Tester would have been lucky to draw Rosendale as an opponent again. Despite the fact that Tester has his own political brand in the state and is the kind of relatable figure who has gotten many votes across the political divide before, he is going to have a tougher time with Sheehy, especially during a Presidential election year, with Trump on the ballot. A very heavy hyper-partisan turnout will work to the Democrats' disadvantage in Montana. The two nominees have already held at least one debate and Tester has little choice but to try to distance himself from the Administration of Joe Biden and the candidacy of Kamala Harris as much as possible. At the same time, one might get a sense that Sheehy may not be exactly comfortable with everything Trump says and does, but knows he has to rely on MAGA support to win.

The polls have frankly been all over the place. Just last week, one showed Sheehy ahead of Tester by six points, but seemingly the next day, Democrats were relieved to see a different poll showing Tester ahead by five points. One of those surveys is obviously very much off. Some earlier polls had showed a virtual dead heat, with Sheehy perhaps up slightly.

My sense is that this race will come down to the wire. While there will be virtually no Harris-Sheehy voters, there will be a substantial number of Trump-Tester voters, despite the personal animosity between the two men. Will that be enough though to get Tester another term and a return to the Senate, as perhaps the only remaining Senator representing a true Red State? At this point, I would say he falls a bit short.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

10 D  (6 Safe, 1 Likely,  2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 5 R   (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

38 Democrats (28 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

43 Republicans (38 Holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)