Maryland U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Maryland U.S. Senate

89 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

This might be the most intriguing down-ballot race in the country. Maryland is easily one of the Democrats' best electoral states and this should not even be a close contest. Indeed it is though, because Republicans have nominated the only party member in the state who would have any chance of victory. After all, he has twice beaten the odds statewide before. However, a federal election, especially occurring at the same time as a Presidential election, might be a different political animal than a race for Governor, especially one in a lower-turnout midterm.

Maryland is seeing a rare open Senate race because Democrat Ben Cardin, at age 80, is retiring after three terms. Before that, he served twenty years in the U.S. House. In fact, the Senator has continuously held office since 1966, when he was elected to the state legislature at age 23. While Cardin has always been fairly liberal on domestic issues, he has worked on a more bipartisan level on issues related to foreign affairs.and will leave office as Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

All sorts of ambitious Democrats took a look at this race, including high-profile Congressman Jamie Raskin, While he did not file, many others did, and a couple would eventually drop out. Ultimately, only two credible potential nominees ran. One was David Trone, a very wealthy businessman out of the alcohol industry, who had spent massive amounts of his personal fortune in a 2016 U.S. House race, but lost a competitive open primary to Raskin. Two years later, Trone found another open Maryland Congressional district to run in and this time outdistanced his primary opponents with 40 percent of the vote en route to a general election victory. After a couple of somewhat competitive reelections, he set his sights on the Senate and once again was prepared to spend a lot of money.

The other candidate was Angela Alsobrooks, the Executive of Prince George's County. Both major Democrats would hail from mostly affluent areas in the D.C. suburbs. Alsobrooks, who had held county wide office since 2011, was the first black woman elected as a county executive in Maryland. If elected to the Senate, she would be one of a small number of African-American women to ever do so.  A Democrat in neighboring Delaware is heavily favored to win this year as well. Alsobrooks would "also" be Maryland's first black Senator, representing a state that includes a large constituency of black voters.

While the white Trone boasted of significant endorsements, especially among his U.S. House colleagues, and including some African-Amerian national and political figures, Alsobrooks also had a multicultural list of endorsements. One of her most prominent was that of Wes Moore, the recently elected, and highly ambitious African-American Governor of Maryland. There was much discussion over which Democrat would be more electable in November against a strong Republican, and many came to the conclusion that they would run about the same. For a time, it looked like Trone's deep pockets could be enough to give him a primary win, but on May 14, Alsobrooks surpassed expectations by defeating Trome 53-43, with a bevy of lesser known candidates taking up the remainder.

Meanwhile, Republicans had not been competitive in a Maryland Senate election in many years, so even before Cardin announced his retirement, some national party leaders would bring up the name of Larry Hogan, the state's recent popular Republican Governor. The talk intensified when the seat became open, but it appeared to be a longshot. For one thing, Hogan seemed to be moving in the direction of making a Presidential bid in association with the centrist No Labels group. He did not seem like anyone who had any real interest in running for Senate.

Hogan's political story is very impressive though. The son and namesake of a former moderate Republican Congressman, Hogan was in business and had served in an appointed role in state government. In 2014, his four point victory for Governor was perhaps the biggest surprise of the cycle. In office, he often battled with the heavily Democrat legislature, but garnered goodwill by successfully fighting what had appeared to be a dire cancer diagnosis not long after taking in office. In 2018, which should have been a very difficult year for any Republican in Maryland, he won reelection by a double digit margin, proving his ability to win crossover votes. In both Gubernatorial victories, Hogan defeated African-American Democrats.

What has made Hogan different though than most Republican politicians in this era is that he has never voted for Donald Trump to be President. Not surprisingly, this has always been a sore spot for Trump. The two feuded over the Covid 19 issue, among other things. By 2022, it appeared Hogan had lost his steam within his own party, his endorsed candidate to replace him lost in a primary to a Trump backed MAGA acolyte who had tried to impeach the Governor. Not surprisingly, Hogan refused to endorse that candidate, who would go on to lose in a landslide to Wes Moore. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Moore has consistently been pretty cool to harsh in regards to his predecessor. While it should not be a surprise that the Governor would stick with his party, he has perhaps missed an opportunity to appear appreciative of a popular member of the other party who had dared to oppose what Democrats have said is most dangerous.

It came as a surprise to many in when Hogan announced February that he would run for the U.S .Senate and would do so as a Republican. Some in the No Labels movement or who might otherwise pine for a center or center-right Presidential option this year might continue to ask what if. Had Hogan announced earlier for Senate, it is possible that there would have been time for a more pro-Trump candidate to mount a serious primary opposition. As it was, the establishment party choice who was in the race, retired U.S. Air Force Brigadier General John Teichert agreed to step aside in favor of Hogan. The former Governor expressed the rationale for his candidacy by basically saying that while he still had no real desire to be a Senator, it was important for there to be members of the Republican Party in Washington and in Congress in general, who were willing to put partisanship aside and put the country's business first. While Democrats have tried to paint Hogan as being far-right (as they did in his Gubernatorial wins), his position on issues such as abortion as in line with more old-school east coast moderate Republicans.

On Primary Day, Hogan won with 64 percent over a weak field of lesser known candidates. The 2022 U.S. Senate nominee, and perennial office seeker, finished third with three percent. In second place was 81 year old Robin Ficker, who ran well to the right of Hogan. After having served in the Maryland House for four years after the 1978 election,  Ficker had run unsuccessfully for office many times, but perhaps might have been best recognized as the guy who used to show up at NBA games for the team from Washington and heckle from behind the bench, often in very personal terms, opposing players and coaches. In this race, Ficker took 28 percent and carried some conservative counties. To be clear, the fact that over a third of Maryland Republicans did not vote for Hogan reflects the view that many in the party do consider him a "RINO."

Hogan made it clear from the beginning of this race that he would once again not back Donald Trump. He endorsed Nikki Haley late in the primary season, but that probably did not help her very much anywhere. While Hulk Hogan spoke at this summer's Republican Convention, Larry Hogan stayed at home. It is unlikely Governor Hogan will endorse Kamala Harris in this general election, but perhaps not totally shocking if he will do so. Some Republican allies of Trump have either gone out of their way to attack Hogan and say they hope he loses, while others have taken the more pragmatic approach by acknowledging he is the only Republican that can win and thus they must back him. In June, Trump himself sounded quite odd when he spoke of the concept of party unity and offered his endorsement to Hogan. The Hogan campaign was perhaps taken aback and not exactly happy about this development. Indeed, that may have been Trump's true intention. The former Governor responded that he did not seek the endorsement and had no interest in it. Considering the political nature of Maryland, that was the correct reaction.

There have been moments of friendly interaction thus far on the campaign trail between Alsobrooks and Hogan which is perhaps a positive reminder of the way that politics used to be... sometimes. However, if this race is as competitive as it seems, the gloves are likely to come off on both sides. Hogan continues to present himself as a friendly, competent, everyman sort of guy, above the political fray but Democrats will be pointing out that any Republican victory in the closely divided Senate would be a victory to organize the body to be run by far more ominous figures in the other party,and that things such as abortion and voting rights would be put at risk.

With all that in mind, Hogan has quite a challenge for himself.There are some Republican affiliated polls that show him ahead of Alsobrooks. He will try to make it clear that she is not willing to depart from the orthodoxy of her party on any issue. Other polls, in association with Democrats, show Alsobrooks in the lead. Before the primary, polls showed the more well-known Hogan with what looked like a large general election lead, but things have changed since then.

There is no doubt that this race is monumentally closer than it would otherwise be because Larry Hogan is the Republican nominee. Needless to say, I personally hope he wins, and it is rare I would say that about many other Republican candidates this cycle. However, as much as I would like to be wrong, my sense is that Maryland is just too blue for Hogan to actually win this race.

One cannot help though but consider the implications of what could be if he surprises the political world as much as he did in 2014. If Trump wins the Presidency again, Hogan would go to the Senate as the new Mitt Romney, and will receive much media attention, but come to quickly realize just how isolated he and perhaps two other Republican Senators would be, in a totally Trump dominated party. If Trump loses though, and Hogan wins, the new Senator from Maryland would probably immediately become in many ways, the most important Republican in Washington.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

7 D  (4 Safe, 1 Likely,  1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

2 R  (1 Safe, 1 Leans)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

35 Democrats (28 Holdover, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

40 Republicans (1 Safe, 1 Leans, 38 Holdover)