Florida U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Florida U.S. Senate

95 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

Not so long ago, Florida was the most prime of all swing states. Since then, the Sunshine State has moved substantially towards the Republican Party at all levels. The Senate race this year is said to be somewhat competitive, and likely more so than the Presidential contest, at least according to recent polls, but it would be a tremendous shock and a sign of a great night for Democrats if this one goes down to the wire. Many in the party hope that ballot questions surrounding abortion and marijuana can bring out enough of their voters to surprise people.

Republican Senator Rick Scott is seeking a second term. He was a very wealthy businessman, who had some vulnerabilities with that narrative due to a financial fraud situation involving the hospital corporation he ran. Still, he was able to set his sights on politics and as an outside ran for Governor of Florida in 2010. He used his personal resources to upset the establishment choice in the GOP primary and then won a general election by one percentage point, in what has now been a long streak of Republican Gubernatorial wins in the state. In 2014, he was challenged by his predecessor, who by that point had changed parties to become a Democrat and Scott again won by one point.

A bald, lanky man, without a lot of perceived charisma, Scott does not fit the profile of a typical politician. He amassed a very conservative record though in the state and though he was first thought of as a critic, emerged as an ally of Donald Trump, during the 2016 Presidential campaign. In 2018, Scott decided to run for the United States Senate against three term incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. The then Governor was seen as a slight underdog in this high-profile race, but surprised many by winning yet another close victory, which became official several days after the election. In this result, Scott won by even less than one point.

Clearly,Scott has a penchant for winning very close races, but based on his electoral history, perhaps he should always expect a tight challenge. The Senator has continued to be an ally of Trump. He was said to have considered running for President in 2024, but sat it out, with other powerful Florida Republicans, including Trump running. He is also not close to another one of the candidates in that cycle's Presidential contest, Ron DeSantis, his successor as Governor,who has since eclipsed him nationally. During the Presidential campaign, Trump, who soured on DeSantis, after the former acolyte dared to challenge him, made some reference to the possibility that current Governor would drop out of the Presidential race to challenge Senator Scott instead.

As a Trump associate, Scott clashed with Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. His tenure as Chairman of the Senate Republicans' campaign arm resulted in less than stellar results in 2022 and some fingers were pointed at Scott's political brashness. He quickly attempted a challenge to McConnell to become Senate Republican Leader, but lost badly in that contest. Now though, with McConnell stepping aside from that role, he is running again for that slot, and seems to have the tacit support of Trump. Two other Senators, with more seniority and more establishment ties are also running. Clearly, Scott's chance of becoming what he would hope to be Majority Leader, at age 72, would depend on what the overall makeup of the Senate Conference will be for Republicans. If Trump loses the Presidential race this year, Scott probably has virtually no chance remaining.

 

First though, Scott has to win reelection. On August 20, he is expected to easily defeat two primary challengers. One of those men, businessman and attorney Keith Gross (no relation), has been trying to run a pretty boisterous campaign against the incumbent, calling him a RINO, and saying he would be more effective. With Trump backing Scott though,  it is very unlikely we will see a Senator Gross.

The nominee for the Democrats appears all but certain to be Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who arrived in the United States at age 14 from her native Ecuador. She is also of Lebanese descent.  After a career in non-profits and universities, she ran for Congress from a South Florida district in 2018 and narrowly defeated a fellow Hispanic, and an incumbent Republican.who was considered anti-Trump..Though she was considered a rising star for her party, 2020 was a very bad year for Florida Democrats, including in Miami-Dade County, and Mucarsel-Powell was defeated by four points, after just one term, to an Hispanic opponent. Now, she is trying to pull off the rare defeat of being elected to the Senate, fairly recently after being unseated by the voters as a U.S. House incumbent.

Later this month, Mucarsel-Powell will face nominal primary opposition from three other Democrats. Two of them are African-American, one of which is the brother of Luther Campbell, from the infamous 2 Live Crew, hip hop group. The third candidate is Brian Rush, who served decades ago as a State Representative, and who received single digits in a 2022 Senate primary run. With the former Congresswoman having much of the national and state party behind her, a couple other candidates dropped out of planned runs.

After recent election cycles, there is some belief that DMP may pretty much be the party's best hope for a statewide race. Democrats could certainly do worse in fielding a candidate and do not currently have a particularly strong bench in Florida in terms of potential statewide winners. Mucarsel-Powell is seen as not being too far to the left, but Florida as a whole, especially the more northern you go, has become quite red. The issue of Democrats and the label of "socialism" has hurt the party in South Florida, as seen by the loss of the Congresswoman in 2020. If she were to have any chance of victory in this race, she will need to win back a ton of those voters. In 2018, Rick Scott exceeded expectations with the Latino vote.

Right now, the polls tend to show a relatively close race. It does not appear that Scott is beloved by the state's voters, after these last 14 tumultuous years. DPM looks very much within striking distance, and seems to be attracting at least some of the voters who are also planning to vote for Donald Trump. The polls in 2018, 2020, and 2022 did underestimate Republican strength though in Florida. With that in mind, I think it is more likely this race could wind up tilting more towards the incumbent, than it might currently appear. As it is, the conventional wisdom is that Scott will win reelection and Democrats will mostly focus their efforts elsewhere. The Republican can probably expect a margin of victory that is larger than one percentage point.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

4 D  (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

1 R (1 Leans)

Total with predicted thus far:

32 Democrats (28 Holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

39 Republicans (1 Leans, 38 Holdover)