White House Race- July 28, 2024

It is hard to imagine a political party feeling more like it's fortunes have improved in the space of one week than what Democrats must be feeling right now. The re-match of the last election that "nobody wanted" is now off the table and there is a tremendous new dynamic to the Presidential campaign, as we are about to begin the final 100 day stretch run. This past week was the week after the Republican National Convention and should have been a week where their ticket was on a roll, but the tables appear to have turned,

Nobody should be mistaken though in thinking that this is anything other than a close race. I long said Democrats were far too cocky throughout 2023 that they would be able to defeat Donald Trump fairly easily and some may be falling into that trap now. Republicans have been cocky about beating Joe Biden since Day 1 of the campaign and now are faced with the prospect of having to defeat a different, much younger candidate, who has been generating enthusiasm from voter blocs that had not been that excited. Many Republicans still feel that Kamala Harris might be easy to beat, but there is definitely a sense that the party and its candidate are reeling and trying to adjust. Just a bit over a week ago, with Biden refusing to exit the race, it appeared that Democrats were all but conceding the Presidency to Trump, but as I predicted, they did come to their senses, and made a switch. Many thought that Harris could face a challenge for the nomination and that there could be a convention battle in Chicago. With the exception of political gadfly Marianne Williamson, nobody is running against the sitting Vice President for the nomination. She has more than surpassed expectations in unifying Democrats in a matter of a few short days.

A week ago, I would have estimated that Democrats had just about a 25 percent chance of winning the Presidency in November. Now, I think that is all the way up to 50 percent again, with momentum on their side. There is a long way to go however. An important factor I think is that I expect the ultimate vote for candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr or Cornel West or Jill Stein to go down now. Many on the let just were not ever going to vote for an old, rich, white, heterosexual, Christian male like Joe Biden. As a whole, Democrats now feel unburdened by having to pretend to be excited about such a candidate. Some of those traits do not apply to Harris and thus she might get many of the people on the left who were going to cast a protest vote.

Since I last wrote about this race on Sunday night, Joe Biden thankfully recovered from his stint with Covid 19 and returned to the White House. On Wednesday night, he addressed the nation from the Oval Office, and after weeks of insisting he was remaining in the race, after his horrible debate performance, said he had decided he needed to unify his party by "passing the torch" This of course is the week where the Olympic Torch was passed in Paris, amid heavy rainfall. Just about all Democrats, and many Americans at large are feeling appreciative to Biden for taking this step, and it could serve to give him a popularity boost in the polls, now that he is no longer a candidate. Of course, he is also a lame-duck President now, and is going to be overshadowed on some political and policy matters by his number two. Biden was said to have had doubts that Harris could defeat Trump before dropping out and many Democrats, particularly within the African-American community, were very vocal in opposing him being pressured out of the race. That is indeed what happened though, and now, Democrats are probably wondering what they were thinking. Just about every partisan on that side has quickly moved on from Ridin' With Biden to jumping on the Kamala express. 

 

As the week began, all the Democrats who were mentioned as potential nomination hurdles for Harris announced their support of her. Many of them started to quickly angle publicly to become her Vice Presidential running-mate, which is a decision expected to be announced within the next couple of weeks. She has raised massive amounts of money, and Democrats, especially young ones, seem enthused in a way perhaps not seen since the candidacy of Barack Obama. The memes that were being used against Harris as evidence of her supposed awkwardness or moments of cringe such as "did you just fall out of a coconut tree" are now being used in her favor. There seems to be no legal impediment to her appearing on the ballot as Presidential nominee everywhere in the country despite some disingenuous Republican noise. In fact, Democrats seem prepared to go with a pre-recorded roll call nominated before the convention even begins. There is no legal reason to do so, but as I have said, Democrats probably want to limit who might say unvetted words in an open microphone on live television, especially as it could relate to anti-Israel sentiments among party activists.

Any personal bitterness or resentment that Joe Biden may personally be feeling about the abrupt end to his political career are being kept to himself now. Most expect he will address the Chicago convention and will receive thunderous applause. I sort of have my doubts about the political wisdom of that, but I guess he has earned the right. It is ironic that Biden first took office after needing to be convinced by party leaders to be sworn in, after his 1972 election, while mourning the loss of his wife and young daughter and tending to his injured sons, was prepared to not become a Senator. All these decades later, different party leaders basically had to force him out of a race and eventually an office he did not want to leave. There does not seem to be any sort of widespread support for him to resign immediately, despite some efforts by Republicans (while others recognize that could be a double edged sword.)

This entire drama may make a very interesting movie or book one day. We do not know what is really going on but there are reports that Biden is especially angry at Barack Obama over his efforts to get his former running-mate to leave the race. It is also being reported, and I find this odd, that Obama was very much opposed to the party nominating Harris, but instead wanted Arizona Senator Mark Kelly to somehow become the Presidential nominee. So with that in mind, Biden upon exiting, immediately endorsed Harris, as a way to stick it to Obama. Whatever happened, Harris is going to be nominated, and the Obamas officially endorsed her the other day, after most major Democrats already had. There was a photo that surfaced this week of Harris way back in 2007 attending Obama's Presidential announcement speech in Illinois.

Much of the attention is now being paid on whom Harris will pick to run with her. Candidates will have to be very quickly vetted. Indeed,  Kelly of Arizona is said to be a frontrunner. Obviously, Arizona is a huge state for both parties in this cycle and he is popular there. Kelly has a biography that includes serving in the military and being an astronaut. In many ways, he makes a lot of sense politically, but is not seen as any sort of exciting personality. He has a lot of goodwill based on  the way he has been the loyal caretaker of his wife, former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, since she was nearly killed in an assassination attempt in 2011.

The story on Kelly though is that he was a Republican for most of his life. Besides joining his wife in pushing for gun control, he really did not have any discernible political positions until he decided to run for the Senate a few years back. At that point, he pretty much presented himself as a boiler plate Democrat. I sort of doubt that Kelly is really a true blue progressive at heart, but if he is picked, and it appears he wants it, he will be expected to fall in line completely with Harris's positions.

Here is another thing though. The husband of Harris is a Jewish man named Doug Emhoff. Kelly's wife, the former Congresswoman, is also Jewish. Could the anti-Semitic/anti-Zionist folks on the left have some problems with that? It would perhaps be an even bigger issue if the second of the supposed finalists is picked by Harris. That would be Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. He is the executive (though not for long) of a huge swing state, but is a Conservative Jew in his personal religion (and has a Jewish wife also) and has been staunchly pro-Israel in recent months. Left-wing groups are already warning Harris about Shapiro. Among the four principals on the soon to be unveiled Dem ticket, at least one will be Jewish, but might it be as many as three? I saw a clip of Shapiro speaking this week in support of Harris, and he is a good speaker. However, his cadence and delivery seemed to be borrowed very heavily from past speeches of Barack Obama.I saw someone refer to him as "Baruch Obama."

 

Overall, the issue of Israel and Gaza is going to continue to be a tricky one for Harris. This past week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a Joint Session of Congress in which Harris avoided presiding over and Vance also skipped. The Israeli leader also met separately with Biden, Harris, and Trump. With new attention on her, the Vice President chose public words very carefully to both denounce Hamas and put pressure on Israel to accept a deal. The Israelis were said to be upset by this. Trump is saying openly that Harris does not like Jewish people, which is a bit like Trump saying he does not like European former models or perhaps porn stars. Tragically, a Hezbollah attack on Israel yesterday took the most lives in that country since October 7.

Reports are the third finalist is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a former military man and high school football coach. In many ways, he would make a lot of sense for Harris, and I had thought about him months ago as someone who would be strong on a post-Biden ticket. Democrats obviously need Minnesota, but probably have less to worry about there now than some other states. The thought might be that he could play well in nearby Wisconsin and Michigan, much like JD Vance of fairly safe Ohio was supposed to help in Pennsylvania and Michigan for Republicans. Walz would be the third member of the Minnesota DFL to be selected for Vice President in the past 60 years.

If Kelly, Shapiro, and Walz are indeed the "final three" that would seem to be bad news for the only other two names I can see making any sense. Those would be North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. (Neither is Jewish, same as Walz, nor married to one, but the name Beshear sounds a lot like the Yiddish word Bashert which refers to a destined pairing.) I would think that if Democrats thought Cooper could help them get North Carolina, he would be the best choice. Perhaps, they have decided that he could not deliver the state or that other states are more important. Kentucky is off the table, but Beshear's victory in among the reddest of states would speak highly towards his political appeal, but he seems to be a long-shot now.

There was much talk this week about Vance on the Republican side and a feeling that Trump might have made a huge mistake and that he might somehow be dumped from the ticket. I do not see that happening. However, it looks pretty clear that Vance was not really the former President's first choice, but that his two oldest sons pushed for him and he went along with it. As I had mentioned last week, Vance does not do anything for Trump except double down on the kind of people who were already strongly for him. He was picked by whomever picked him because that person or persons assumed Trump already had the election won. Now, things have changed, and picking Vance looks like a missed opportunity. I also am genuinely serious if Trump was aware that Vance was married to an Indian-American woman, who is a practicing Hindu and a vegetarian to boot. I am sure those around Trump knew, but perhaps they never told him and he never asked. (I myself did not know that Vance is a somewhat recent convert to Catholicism.) Some in the white nationalist wing of the MAGA movement are already attacking the Vances because of their interracial and interfaith marriage.

Ultimately, I do not think either running-mate will play a deciding role in this election, but Democrats cannot be faulted for trying to make hay about past comments Vance made. Back when he was angling for a Trump endorsement for his struggling U.S. Senate primary bid in 2021, Vance was deliberately saying things to try to appeal to the online MAGA crowd. He bemoaned the fact that the country was being run by "childless cat ladies." This seemed to strike a chord of anger even across political spectrums in regards to adults who do not have biological children. Vance has even made comments suggesting that people with children should somehow have "additional votes" than those without. I wonder if he will tell that during a Senate vote to his Republican colleagues such as Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott.

I have to briefly mention that among all the Vance feeding frenzies there was a completely made-up story about something he was alleged to have said in his memoir about an encounter with a piece of furniture. Indeed, it was not in the book at all, and this whole episode serves as an ugly reminder of the dangers of social media and liars on those platforms. However, I cannot resist wondering if perhaps Trump might have wanted to take on a political partner who was a "sectional predator." In all seriousness, I am far more concerned about the damage that Vance and his ilk have down to what Ronald Reagan used to refer to as a "three legged stool of conservatism."

Then, there is Donald Trump. After he got shot, he was talking about how he wanted to "unite" the country. That did not last long. Now, that Biden has been shuttled aside for Harris, he seemed to be particularly unhinged this past week. Of course, there are legitimate questions about Harris's record and beliefs. Many of the positions she took in her own struggling 2020 Presidential campaign could come back to haunt her, but Republicans in general are reeling and flailing and trying to portray her as a "DEI hire." I think those attacks are likely to be counterproductive.

I also think that Trump's first post-Biden rally speech this week in North Carolina is also a bad sign for him. Harris has been getting a ton of attention and praise for her momentum this week and it absolutely drives him crazy. Again, while there is much to run against her on, he is blaming her for things from her pre- Vice Presidential days that are a huge stretch. Above all else, he is (as many on his side for years) deliberately mispronouncing her first name to that of the famed WWF wrestler Kamala the Ugandan Giant. Trump is certainly familiar with him from his own WWF associations. (The actual late wrestler was an African-American from Mississippi who happened to have the last name of Harris.) It is hard to see this as anything other than blatant racial signaling and is of course shameful.

So, we already see Trump going from bad to worse. He has been saying other weird and hard to interpret remarks on the campaign trail this weekend.(He suggested to Christians that they will never have to vote again if he is reelected and while speaking to them in an "other" context and said words that sounded like "I am not a Christian." I do not think he intended to say it that way but perhaps his conscience slipped.) I would expect Democrats to try to talk a lot about his mental acuity and age in the weeks ahead.

This is clearly a new race with an energized Democrat Party taking on a somewhat surprised Republican Party. There will be more difficult days for Kamala Harris on the campaign trail, as she will be tested like she has never been before. However,this race is probably now going to turn down to being a referendum on Trump. Many Americans, fearful of the other side, will vote for him reluctantly, but he is showing warning signs of being apt to lash out and say something on camera so outrageous and so impossible to defend, that many of those voters will think twice.