White House Race- July 6, 2024

As has become a theme lately in writing about this race, "Lord help us all."

 

Joe Biden now says that only the "Lord Almighty" could convince him to end his bid for reelection. This would seem to remind me somehow of an old sitcom gag in which somebody plays the role of the Almighty in attempt to convince a confused individual, but this real life situation is far more serious.

Once again, I really do think Mr. Biden will be out of the race by the end of the next two weeks. It should have been done already though and the more that he, and his family, seem oblivious, and resist, the messier and uglier this is going to turn. We truly are living in unprecedented political times. The dam started to break last week and the flood waters are going to continue to flow. Democrats are simply going to have to play hardball.

Last week, we celebrated Independence Day. During the same week, the Supreme Court gave a victory of sorts to Donald Trump by ruling that he and any President will have immunity as it relates to "official acts." In some ways,they have decided that any President is far more like a King than we have ever recognized. Now, they did not go along with Trump's assertion that he has "total immunity", but what exactly is an "official act?" In a broad abstract sense, I might think that the six Justices, all of whom were appointed by Republicans, are correct, but in the reality of our political times, this decision feels very scary.  As has been mentioned, Biden could theoretically do whatever he wanted now as long as the argument can be made about an "official act." After all, in these hyper-partisan times, Impeachment is sort of meaningless. These are not normal times, and Donald Trump would not be a normal President. Someday, there could be someone even worse.  There will never be a Senate made up of another individuals willing to convict someone in their own party, of anything. Then again, this is the week Democrats want Biden gone a lot more than Republicans do.

Without getting into a lengthy legal or political analysis of the SCOTUS ruling, suffice to say, Donald Trump is unlike to face any future criminal trials until after the election. Already, his New York sentencing, scheduled originally for next week, has been pushed back to September. Some think this ruling could even put that conviction in jeopardy. If Trump wins the election in November, all of his criminal problems will go away in my view. All of them. Right now, he is winning the election. What is more, some Democrats, including the current President of the United States, seem either oblivious to that or resigned to let it happen. Trump has made little qualms that he would like to be a dictator. In the wake of the recent debate, far too many Democrats have been publicly silent about what needs to be done to prevent that.

The Fourth of July also say elections in the United Kingdom,. As expected, the Conservatives took a massive beating and are now out of power. The once unelectable Labour Party improved its image in recent years and is now back in power. Conversely, France looks poised to move sharply to the right and potentially have a President soon that many people found unimaginable. With that in mind, the parties who finished behind in the first round of voting are acting strategically and attempting to join ranks to defeat that threat. Even Iran, just held in an election, where we are told the winner is a relative moderate.

Nothing will be bigger than the American election this year though. A major theme from Democrats has been the threat that Trump poses to democracy itself. Do they really mean what they say? If they do, in the wake of the disastrous debate performance that has continue to dominate the political oxygen, and all of the incredibly lackluster efforts of the Biden camp to tamper it every day since, they ought to go from feeling sympathetic and sorry for Joe Biden, but angry at him, his family, and his closest handlers.

I watched last night's Biden interview with George Stephanapolous. In the 22 minutes, he looked bit a better and talked a bit better than he did in the debate, but not really all that much better. Of course I am not a doctor, but some things are hard to ignore. Do I think Biden is demonstrating signs of Alzheimer's or advanced dementia? No. Do I think he is very like to die within a year? No. Is he someone that is going to beat Donald Trump? It really does not seem like it. The most important consideration for all Americans should be though, that if he somehow did, is someone capable of being able to be any sort of an effective President for anywhere close to another four and a half years? Absolutely not.

 

In many ways, I get it. Even in the last campaign, the MAGA crowd was talking about "Sleepy Joe" and insinuating that he had dementia. Those claims have only grown louder as the years and months continued. People who like Biden, or even people like me who detests MAGA fought back against it. Sure, much of the claims were exaggerated. However, after the debate, and with a flurry of stories in which largely unnamed people close to Biden are appearing, in which they do describe their increasing fears about his physical and cognitive health, we need to admit we were wrong and take correction. The instinct might be to dig in and not let the "extreme MAGA Republicans" take a W on their claims, but that is not the right thing to do for the country. We cannot risk throwing away the America we know simply because anyone wants to "own the Right." 

After this election is over, one way or another, there will be much to delve into who has been protecting Biden they way they have and who encouraged him to run for another term he had no business to run for.  What is the role of First Lady Jill Biden, and son Hunter Biden, a now convicted felon, who we are told has been participating at key White House and campaign meetings. What is exactly going on with the White House physician, who we are told has informed the President he has no need to take a cognitive exam. Maybe all Presidents need to take those exams regularly. If Biden and those around him truly thought he was fine,  considering the uproar of the past week plus, one would think he would be willing to take a test like that on live television. Instead, he laughs and says he does not need to. He does not need to press conferences either.The White House doctor does not need to address reporters. Brief interviews with black-radio hosts are conducted, but only after the questions to ask were provided by Team Biden. They are clearly hiding stuff and trying to run out the clock. In the meantime, Donald Trump, as disgusting as he is both personally and politically, skates by, and looks more and more like the next President.

There is so much that can be said but not enough time to do so. Since last Saturday, I think the situation for Democrats has grown a lot worse. The White House briefings with Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre have been like watching a train wreck. I can acknowledge just how tough her job is, but she is not doing it very well. Stories keep changing, details keep getting added, and all of it is a mess. We have been told Biden had a cold the night of the debate, but there is confusion over whether or not he saw a doctor. He then told a fundraiser he was suffering from jetlag, due to international travel he completed nearly two weeks before. The President told a group of Governors that he was tired and does not sleep enough. He said last night he was "exhausted" on the debate stage. There have already been stories written about how Biden rarely does anything publicly outside of the hours of 10 am and 8 pm, and it leaked out that he told the Governors he need to do less of those now.

This is what I know. It is hard to get mad at Trump and his ilk for calling someone "Sleepy Joe" when Joe admits he is sleepy. It is pretty scary to have a President who cannot function effectively because of the rigors of the job, even weeks after a trip. Are the terrorists not going to attack us in Biden's off-hours out of kindness? I also find it ridiculous that he was exhausted in coming face to face with Trump for a debate he challenged him to and largely set the rules for. You do not walk out on that stage unless you believe you are prepared to kick Trump's ass, and instead, to borrow another phrase from Trump,. Biden "choked like a dog." Being "sleepy" while standing feet away from him on a debate stage is like hitting the snooze button as fire engulfs your home.

The White House keeps saying the debate was "a bad night" and "just one bad night." Let us somehow suspend delusion and consider that it was his first bad night ever. Is it going to be his last one? Either as a candidate or as a President? A bad night for one man can lead to a bad decade or more for the world. More immediately, it can also certainly sink a political party.

Again, whether one thinks Biden has been a great President, a horrible President, or somewhere in between, if one wants to prevent Trump from winning, Biden has to go. He can talk all he wants about his accomplishments over the last three years, but when an ace pitcher is tired, or injured, the manager is going to come out and get him and call in someone from the bullpen. This is no different. This is much more important. From everything that is being reported, to the arrogant and dismissive way that Biden defended himself in the ABC interview last night, he is a a powerful, arrogant man in deep denial or deeply dishonest. He even bragged about his "crowd size"in an attempt to shut up critics. Frankly, Joe Biden is far more like Donald Trump than many have ever wanted to admit. I knew that years ago though.

Last week, I asked who would be the first elected Democrat to have the guts to call on Biden to leave. History will record that person as being longtime Texas Congressman Lloyd Doggett. He is not someone who would have been expected to be first. Over the past few days, a handful of other House Democrats have also called on Biden to exit the race, including my own Congressman Mike Quigley. One Governor has added her voice to the gathering chorus, and we are told that Senator Mark Warner of Virginia is attempting to gather a group of Democrats in Joe Biden's old place of political standing, to call on him to leave. Last night, Biden claimed that while he respected Warner, he cannot be taken too seriously because he had tried to take the nomination also Completely untrue. Does Biden think Warner ran against him in either 2024 or 2020? He just might. Warner briefly considered running in the 2008 cycle, but has never run for President. Maybe Biden was thinking about that, since he ran that year as well.

 

In the interview, Biden was asked how he would feel if Trump won the election because he refused to leave the race. The President suggested that he would feel ok about it as long as he "gave it his all." How tone-deaf can one individual be? Mr. President, this is about far more than you and your ego.

 

This week, Congressional Democrats will gather again in Washington D.C. after being on break since before the debate. They will have heard from constituents, seen  polling data, and talked to fundraisers. Some of these fundraisers are already openly calling on Biden to leave the race and saying they will close their checkbooks if he does not. Again, it is about to get really messy and really fast. The President laughed off the suggestion that the leadership of his party will call on him to quit, but we will have to wait to see what happens. I will already note that Biden allies Nancy Pelosi and James Clyburn were taking a much different public approach to talking about Biden's problem on Tuesday than they were on last Sunday morning's talk shows. The shows tomorrow morning could be brutal for the White House. In the upcoming week, all eyes will be on top Democrats Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries to see what they will say publicly. We should also wonder what people Barack Obama and the Clintons will be saying to Biden privately.

In my perfect world,. Democrats would get Biden out of the race and then agree to back Mitt Romney as the best option to defeat Donald Trump and save democracy. Obviously, that is not going to happen. So, at this point I am willing to settle for Kamala Harris. She is in a tough spot now. She has to defend the President and her running-mate publicly, but they are not believed to be very close personally, and I think it is fair to say she would probably like him get out of the way. In so many ways, this feels similar to the HBO series "Veep."

I do not think Harris would be the best possible replacement candidate for Democrats, but she would still be better than what is going with Biden now in this campaign. It seems like it would be tough to deny her the opportunity to move up, considering the historic nature of her Vice Presidency and what her Presidency would be, along with some consideration about how only she can use campaign funds already raised. If Biden does drop out, Republicans will at the same time attempt to cry foul and say he is not allowed to do so, while also claiming he must immediately resign as President. The logic will not add up. In spite of what they say about Harris being an easy candidate to beat (and she could wind up being a weak candidate), Trump and his allies do not want Biden to leave the race. Why should they? They are winning as the way things stand now.

So, if Biden does finally give in, as I expect he will have to, Kamala Harris will probably be nominated, along with a Governor like Andy Beshear of Kentucky or Roy Cooper of North Carolina as her running-mate. (Personally, I think both of them would be seen as more moderate, not tied to the Administration, and thus stronger candidates than Harris, but probably would not challenge her. Months ago, I said also said that a ticket of Gretchen Whitmer and Joe Neguse would be a stronger ticket than Biden-Harris.) Some think Harris could also tap Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania to run with her for Vice-President. I think he would bring some strengths too, but frankly, the concept of a Jewish candidate with a Jewish wife, running with a Presidential candidate who has a Jewish husband, would be far too much to bear for the angry anti-Zionist crowd on the left-wing of their party.

If Harris replaces Biden, she will pretty much be free to throw him under the bus and this point and distance herself from the many unpopular aspects of the Administration. That would be tough and awkward to do, but will have to be worth a shot. She can claim she was kept out of the decision making process (which is likely true) but now would be standing as her own person ready to "turn the page." The entire narrative of the race would shift. Suddenly, the old, white guy, who is seen by many to be in cognitive decline, would be Donald Trump, and no longer Joe Biden.

We are in for a big week in American politics, for reasons having little to do with the upcoming Republican National Convention, and which bootlicking stooge, who used to talk trash about Trump, will be picked to be his next Vice President. As I have been saying, Democrats can either prove they are different than the Trump era Republicans or basically just like them. They can put loathing of the other party ahead of what is best for the country or they can do the right thing. They can pledge public allegiance (while thinking differently in private) about one man, when a mountain of evidence exists to show that such allegiance is unworthy and is in fact dangerous. They can also choose to do the right thing. We should get a better idea of where this is going this next week.

For now, Biden is refusing to leave the stage. At a Wisconsin rally yesterday, the new theme song was "I Won't Back Down" by Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers. That is a well known song by a classic artist who died suddenly a few years back, well before what should have been his time. The name of the backing band Heartbreakers should also be a bit troubling considering what is at stake. I happen to think Biden is being quite Petty at the moment, but putting his ego above all else.

Well, I won't back down
No I won't back down
You could stand me up at the gates of Hell
But I won't back down

If he truly means this and if his party lets it happen, perhaps the better Tom Petty song option, as the polls roll in will be "Free Fallin."

If one truly believes that a Trump Presidency could take our democracy to the "gates of Hell", it is time for Biden to back down.