California U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

California U.S. Senate

99 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Safe Democrat 

Regular and Special Elections

There is not really a whole lot to see anymore in regards to Senate race in the Golden State, but it was an interesting ride to get to the point of irrelevancy.

Dianne Feinstein held this seat beginning in 1992. In her latter years, her health took a turn for the worse, and she missed much time on Capitol Hill. At other times, there were serious questions raised about her mental acuity during this final years. With votes being missed, many Democrats began to call on her to step aside so that she could be replaced by another member of the party. Feinstein appeared reluctant to do so and there was some speculation over whether she was even capable of resigning. The Senator even gave some mixed messages about if she might seek reelection in 2024, before an announcement came out that she would not. The veteran political trailblazer passed away last fall at the age of 90.

This vacancy allowed California's Governor Gavin Newsom, a nationally ambitious Democrat, the opportunity to name a replacement. After the 2020 election, he was able to do the same after Senator Kamala Harris was elected Vice President. With the only black female Senator leaving office, many wanted Newsom to appoint someone who fit that profile, but instead he chose a Latino male political ally. He said that if he had the opportunity to fill another Senate vacancy, he would pick an African-American woman at that time. For months, there was much speculation about what he would do if Feinstein were to resign or pass away in office. At one point, Newsom mused about selecting Oprah Winfrey. When he did name someone to replace Feinstein, he chose Laphonza Butler, an openly gay African-American woman who had never fun for office, but was a prominent political activist. At the time of her appointment in California, Butler was living and registered to vote in Maryland.

By this point when Feinstein passed away, prominent Democrats were already campaigning for the open Senate seat. One of them, was an African-American Congresswoman. Newsom made it known that he would not pick pick anybody currently in the field and seemed to suggest he would pick a caretaker who would not seek a full term. When he announced Butler though, he said that there was no such agreement that she would not run in her own right. Butler gave the thought of a campaign for the seat she now held some thought, but figured she was far too little known and way too far behind in the money race to run for office. While some believe she might run statewide in California down the road, this was not the race for her. Unlike other prominent Democrats in California, it does not appear the interim Senator is planning to run for anything in 2026 either.

California has somewhat unique political rules where all candidates of all parties run in the same March primary. The top two, regardless of party, then advance to face each other in November. In the past, this produced an all Democrat final, as Republicans have struggled mightily in the state for a while now. However, a Democrat would prefer to face a Republican in a general election because it all but guarantees their victory. Some interesting and perhaps underhanded political machinations are utilized to achieve that result, and that is what happened in 2024.

 

The Democrats' "nominee" and all but certain future U.S. Senator is Congressman Adam Schiff from the Los Angeles area. His victory will help move the California Senate delegation from being all Bay Area to all SoCal. Schiff has been around politics for a long time. In 2000, he beat a Republican incumbent in what was the most expensive Congressional race in history at the time to go to Washington D.C. He rose up through the ranks there, as an ally of Californian Nancy Pelosi to high profile committee assignments and many. many television interviews. Some believed that Pelosi and others close to Schiff had prevailed upon those associated with Feinstein to get her to not resign, in order to best clear the way for Schiff to eventually succeed her.

During the Trump Administration, Schiff became known as one of the most prominent critics of Donald Trump, especially over allegations that Trump had colluded with Russia in the 2016 campaign. As Chairman of the Intelligence Committee, Schiff basically had the lead role in Trump's first Impeachment trial, regarding his threats to withhold aid from Ukraine. It is fair to say that in the years preceding that, Schiff would go on television and exaggerate the case against Trump in regards to Russia and that the findings of the Special Counsel did not back up any concrete connections. However, at least in my view, while Schiff acted like a partisan politician, it is also true that many close to Trump did have troubling ties to Russia. Schiff became a specific target of Trump and his political and media allies. In the most recent Congress, House Republicans, on party line votes, did Trump's bidding by voting to remove Schiff from the Intelligence Committee and then also censured him on the floor of the House. These moves were used by Schiff as a sign of his influence as sort of a badge of honor, that would work to his advantage in seeking his party's Senate spot on the November ballot. Simply put, Kevin McCarthy and other Republicans did him a huge political favor.

With all this in mind, it is perhaps hard to reconcile that Schiff was easily the least left-wing out of the three California House Members who were the top contenders for the Senate seat. Another long time House Member, Barbara Lee, was seeking to become a freshman Senator at the age of 78. She hailed from Oakland and had the support of many on her colleagues in the Congressional Black Caucus. In 2001, she was the sole Member of Congress to vote against authorizing the use of force against the Taliban. Long associated with left-wing causes, Lee had been disappointed that she was twice passed over to fill a vacant U.S. Senate seat. During this campaign, she took a position that seemed to be in favor of a minimum wage of $50.00 an hour. It is not unrealistic to imagine that had Lee advanced to a general election, against a credible Republican, she might have a hard time winning statewide.

Also in the race was a relatively new Congresswoman from Orange County. Katie Porter, a very liberal protege of Elizabeth Warren also played up her progressive bona fides. Porter had amassed a large fanbase online for her crusading tactics in Congress but had run afoul of colleagues, even in her own party, as well as at least one former staff member, over what is said to be an abrasive personality.

On the Republican side, the most prominent candidate was Steve Garvey, a very prominent Major League Baseball player who had a long and successful, albeit non Hall of Fame career, as a member of both the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the 1970s and 1980s. One of my first sports memories, as a young child, was the horror of him hitting a walk-off home run against the Chicago Cubs in the 1984 NLCS, on a night the Cubs were poised to win the pennant. In a way, it could be said that Garvey ruined my childhood,but at least I do not have the experience that some have in saying that Garvey fathered them out of wedlock during his playing days and refused to support them emotionally or financially. In that regard, he resembles Herschel Walker, another one time sports hero who lost a recent Senate race as a Republican.

Garvey did have a high profile divorce and a lot of jokes about his personal life during the mid '80s. Before that point, he had the reputation of being a straight laced religious man who might indeed seek office one day. He never ran until this race though, at age 75. Physically, Garvey sort of resembles Ronald Reagan, a California actor who became an office holder in the state, but the party has changed a lot since then. Garvey has sort of struggled to define himself in this race. While he had admitted that he voted for Donald Trump, he played it coy as to if he would again in 2024 and even said he was open to the possibility of voting for Joe Biden. In a debate, Katie Porter ironically referred to him as a "dodger."  To this point, Garvey has only offered a somewhat tepid endorsement of Trump, and that was back when Biden was still in the race, and Garvey was questioning his fitness as his rationale.

Leading into the March primary, polls showed that Schiff, who had raised of tons of money, was all but guaranteed to get one of the top two spots, even if he did not finish in first. Lee seemed to be somewhat out of the running for the top two, but remained in the race. It appeared that Garvey and Porter would compete for the other spot on the November ballot, with Garvey also having an outside shot of finishing first with a divided Democrat vote. (Indeed this happened on the same day in the primary for the special election to finish the final portion of Feinstein's term due to significantly less candidate filing for that portion of the ballot.

Obviously, a general election between Schiff and Porter would have guaranteed a Democrat Senator. It also would have forced Schiff to have to spend a ton of money and fight off challenge from his left. It would be far easier to run against Garvey, who sort of gives off a "just happy to be there" aura in regards to a general election fight. So, as has been done in some other races, Schiff used his money to help the Republican Garvey beat the Democrat Porter. He ran ads attacking Garvey for being a Republican in the Trump era, trying to get Republicans to vote for Garvey, and not for a more conservative candidate, such as Eric Early, an attorney who had run statewide a few times before. Porter cried foul about Schiff's tactics, but at the same time tried to play the same game by running ads claiming that Early was the true and "dangerous" MAGA candidate, as she was trying to win votes for Early at the expense of Garvey, so that she could surpass him to face Schiff in November. Of coure, if Porter really had her way, she would be able to knock Schiff out and be the one to face Garvey or any other Republicans. Politics in California can be crazy and somewhat dirty, but all is fair with that sort of primary system. Many Democrats wanted Schiff's gambit to pay off, since all the money they could save on that general election race that would otherwise be donated to two warring Democrats could be sent elsewhere.

Things worked out well for Schiff. He took 32 percent of the full-term primary vote and finished just a few thousand ahead of Garvey, which was a bonus, but sort of irrelevant. Porter was way back at just 15 percent and right after the election released a statement sounding much like Donald Trump saying the outcome was "rigged." She would later have to clarify her remarks. Lee took just about 10 percent, and even if all her vote went to Porter, it would not have mattered. Early took just three percent. California Republicans clearly believed that Garvey was the true conservative candidate or simply knew his name and did not care about the rest.

The issue of Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza had flared up in the days before the primary. Both Lee and Porter took positions in favor of a ceasefire, while Schiff, who is Jewish, and was being strongly supported by political allies of Israel took a more nuanced approach. As he gave his victory speech, he was interrupted by protestors and awkwardly tried to deal with that situation. More recently, Schiff, was among the most prominent Democrats to openly call on Joe Biden to exit the Presidential race. Many believe he was speaking as a promxy for former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. This angered many in the party who were still backing Biden, Apparently, Schiff had expressed concerns that Biden's political difficulties after the infamous debate could even hurt him in his race against Garvey. The public stance by Schiff is seen to have begun the shift of momentum that ultimately led to Biden's withdrawal in favor of Californian Kamala Harris.

It may be tough to portray Steve Garvey as a MAGA extremist, but sharing the same party label as Donald Trump is not a plus in California to say the least. Garvey is a calm presence on television, but does not exactly seem like a politician who truly expects to win this race. It seems more like he is just crossing something off his bucket list and while he will criticize Schiff as being too far to the left, he is not truly going to go out of his way to make many waves in this race.

Thus, Schiff has little to worry about. However, while many Republicans have hated the Democrat for a long time, some on the left have becoming particularly angry with him, especially at the time a couple weeks back regarding his turn on Biden. Some folks online pledged to not vote for Schiff in California, saying they might instead write in Barbara Lee or Katie Porter's names. Of course, many are still hung up on Schiff's traditional support of Israel and his Judaism. Any sort of substantial "Boycott Schiff" movement on the left could move this race into "Likely Democrat" territory, but the polls thus far and conventional wisdom seems to indicate that factor is not too likely.

 

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

2 D  (1 Safe, 1 Tossup)

0 R

Total with predicted thus far:

30 Democrats (28 Holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Tossup)

38 Republicans (38 Holdover)