Delaware U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Delaware U.S. Senate

96 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

The winds of change are blowing in Delaware.. at least as it relates to the state's powerful Democrats. President Joe Biden, the state's most prominent citizen will be leaving the White House, somewhat against his will in a few months. John Carney, the state's term-limited Governor is actually now running for Mayor of Wilmington, which I must not have realized when I wrote about the Gubernatorial race yesterday. As it relates to this race, Senator Tom Carper, who has held statewide office every single day since January of 1977, is retiring at age 77. Carper has been the state's Treasurer, U.S. Representative, and Governor before being elected to the Senate in 2000. In that year, he defeated a long-time Republican incumbent, who was once seen as nearly impossible to defeat, but who became elderly in office and had some public health episodes during that final campaign. No Republican has been elected to the Senate from Delaware since.

 

This Senate vacancy opened up an opportunity for Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester. All other prominent Democrats, including Governor Carney, quickly deferred to her. A one-time Carper staffer, Blunt Rochester was elected to the U.S. House in 2016, when Carney was elected Governor. She became the first woman and first African-American to represent Delaware in Congress and is now in good position for a promotion. If elected, she might become the only black female Senator, although she could be joined by another one from neighboring Maryland, although that race is expected to be more competitive. Blunt Rochester was married at one point in her life to an NBA player, and then her second husband passed away suddenly a decade ago. Not long after that, she decided to run for Congress, after having much experience in non-elected government. Her father had also been a prominent figure in Wilmington politics. Blunt Rochester is likely to be succeeded in the U.S. House by a woman who would become the nation's first transgender Member of Congress.

Neither party is facing a primary choice this September. Republicans are nominating Eric Hansen, a first time candidate, who has significant business experience, including as an executive with Wal-Mart. Hansen seems to be a fairly mainstream Republican of the pre-MAGA variety, but any member of that party has a tough road ahead in Delaware.

Also in the race is Independent Mike Katz, a physician, who once served a term in the Delaware Senate as a Democrat. He also ran a little-noticed quixotic campaign for President as a Democrat in 2020. Katz seems to be running on the generic theme of unity and cooperation, but there is no indication that he is poised to play a major factor in this contest.

While Hansen may be a credible candidate, Blunt Rochester will have much more money, name recognition, and is a solid favorite in this blue state. I was tempted to classify this race as "Safe Democrat", but all things considered, I think it is best to hold off on that, considering this is an open seat contest.

 

At this moment, I am watching the plane from which Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and others are about to walk onto American soil and back into freedom. What an incredibly great moment for the United States..

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

4 D  (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

0 R

Total with predicted thus far:

32 Democrats (28 Holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

38 Republicans (38 Holdover)