Maine U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Maine U.S. Senate

90 Days Until Election Day

Status: Independent (Democrat) Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat/Safe King

 

It feels weird to already be on the letter M this quickly into the alphabetical journey through the states, but rest assured, things will slow down soon enough.

Maine, like most other locals in New England, is considered strongly blue these days. However, there is a mostly rural Congressional district, which has been won by Donald Trump, and somewhat uniquely is entitled to its own electoral vote. That part of the state may very well go Republican again in the Presidential race, but will also probably join the other, more urban part of the state, to reelect an Independent U.S. Senator.

At the age of 80, Angus King is seeking his third term in the Senate. In his youth, he associated with Democrat political figures in the state but as he became a more prominent businessman, he started to describe himself as an Independent. In 1994, he won a three way race for Governor of Maine, which had not been unheard of in the state. The third place Republican finisher is now King's senior U.S. Senate colleague from Maine and close friend. Over two terms as Governor, the Independent was considered fairly centrist and was popular in office. In 2000, he endorsed his Gubernatorial colleague from Texas, George W. Bush for President. In the next elections though, he would back the Democrat.

 

In 2012, after a moderate Republican Senator decided to retire, King amounted a political comeback, running once again as an Independent. He easily won a three way race, with substantial support from Democrats. Even though he had played it coy during the campaign about which party he might choose to caucus with on Capitol Hill, there was not much surprise that he quickly chose the Democrats. King fit in fairly well with other Democrats in the Senate, and when he ran for reelection in 2018, he won by a larger margin, with the official Democrat nominee finishing in third place with just 10 percent.

There was some question as to whether or not King would seek a third term. If he had retired, it would have left open an opportunity for an official Democrat to win, which they have not been able to do in a U.S. Senate contest in Maine since 1988.

The only Republican to enter the race was Demi Kouzounas, a dentist, who had recently been the Maine Republican Chairman, before being ousted from that post amid internal party strife. Republican women have definitely been known to win Senate races in Maine, but the most recent two were considered moderate and not supportive of Donald Trump, as Kouzounas has been. She has basically said that someone needed to step up to run against the incumbent, and questioned what he had accomplished for the state.

Once again, there will be an official nominee of the state's Democrats running against King. Consultant and liberal activist David Costello is running. He once served as a deputy Environmental Secretary in the state government of Maryland. Costello is contrasting himself with King and saying he will be a more vocal progressive. It remains to be seen if this Democrat can take a higher percent of the vote than the last two did in the race against King. It seems as if left-wing Democrats have found themselves in a more rebellious mood lately over issues such as Gaza and they may be wanting to send King a message. There is also an additional Independent candidate on the ballot, but that person probably will finish in the lower single digits.

Considering the inherent nature of a four way race, which basically includes two Democrats and with no polling thus far, there might perhaps be some legitimate questions about the status of this race. However, I cannot see any scenario where King is held under 50 percent among the four candidates. That would guarantee his election because as I recall, Maine has "ranked choice voting." Thus, even if the total vote were to find the incumbent under 50 percent, and the Republican in second place, the supporters of the third place left-wing Democrat are all but certain to have ranked King second, over a Trump supporting Republican, and that would be that anyway.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

6 D  (4 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

2 R  (1 Safe, 1 Leans)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

34 Democrats (28 Holdover, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

40 Republicans (1 Safe, 1 Leans, 38 Holdover)