Massachusetts U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Massachusetts U.S. Senate

88 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

Since her election to a second Senate term in 2018, Democrat Elizabeth Warren has likely come to terms with the reality that her future is likely to lie as a Senator with a seemingly safe seat, rather than as a high ranking official in the Executive Branch.

Warren has been a celebrity of sorts on the left for nearly 20 years now. As a crusading law professor, focused on financial issues, she was once close to President Barack Obama who had wanted her to be the first head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. However, her reputation as a firebrand made it impossible to win Senate confirmation. In 2012, she got revenge of sorts by being elected to the Senate, defeating Republican Scott Brown, whom shocked many by having won a special election for the seat of the late Democrat Ted Kennedy. Warren quickly became a very vocal and very liberal Senator, which seemed to fit in for her overwhelmingly blue state. It is almost hard to believe that the 75 year Warren says she considered herself a Republican into her forties. The Senator was talked about as a Presidential candidate in 2016 but did not challenge Hillary Clinton, as Bernie Sanders of Vermont instead emerged as the champion of many of her followers. Four years later, she did run for President, and found herself in competition with Sanders, that at times became personal between the two. Both were seen by pragmatic Democrats as too left-wing to defeat Donald Trump, and the party coalesced behind Joe Biden. After dropping out of the race, Warren was mentioned as a possibility but not chosen to be Biden's running-mate.

Heading back to the Senate, Warren has been a staunch defender of the Biden Administration and not long ago was insistent that he should not and would not withdraw from the Presidential race, and that he was the best Democrat to take on Trump. These days, most in that party realize that was not the case. The incumbent is a heavy favorite to win another term this year in her state.

There will be a Republican opponent chosen on September 3 primary. It might be sort of hard to have a firm grasp on which of the three candidates will win that primary, but it might not matter much. There is businessman Bob Antonellis who is running a bare bones campaign, but might have a good ballot name in the state for an electorate who may not be paying close attention to a Republican primary. Then, there is Ian Cain, a technology executive, who serves as President of the Quincy City Council. Cain is also African-American and openly gay. He has only recently become a Republican. Finally, there is attorney John Deaton, who has focused heavily on cryptocurrency issues. Cain has also come out in favor of crypto, which puts both of those Republicans in contrast with the anti-crypto Senator Warren. (On this issue, I may find myself siding with her but I do not claim to be an expert on this matter.) Deaton portrays himself as a political outsider and a moderate on social issues. Could the presence of two moderate Republicans in this day and age leave an opening for Antonellis to sweep the MAGA vote? Probably not. If I had to guess, I would say that Deaton's financial advantage will give him a primary win, over the more politically experienced Cain.

Whomever emerges, especially if it is Deaton, may have some money behind him, and there are definitely voters who will come out no matter what to oppose Warren. Seeing this contest as being truly competitive though is very much a stretch at this point.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

8 D  (5 Safe, 1 Likely,  1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

2 R  (1 Safe, 1 Leans)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

36 Democrats (28 Holdover, 5 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

40 Republicans (1 Safe, 1 Leans, 38 Holdover)