Montana Governor- Race of the Day

Montana Governor

81 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Likely Republican

When all is said and done, this race may have moved into the Safe Republican category, but for now, I am being mindful that Montana has had some very competitive down ballot races in the recent past and a hyper-partisan turnout could at least bolster turnout for Democrats. It will be worth seeing what the polls here will be after Labor Day and how the Gubernatorial number will compare to much higher profile race for U.S. Senate.

Incumbent Governor Greg Gianforte is seeking a second term. A wealthy software executive from back east, he moved to Montana in the mid '90s and became active in civic life. In 2016, Gianforte captured the Republican nomination for Governor, but lost a close election to the incumbent Democrat. He quickly found another political opportunity though when Montana's then lone Congressman joined Donald Trump's Cabinet. Gianforte ran for Congress and was expected to be easily elected. The day before the special election though, he took umbrage at a reporter's question and bodyslammed him to the ground. This assault on a journalist openly pleased Trump, but caused sudden legal and political problems for the Republican candidate. While it was too late to affect the outcome of the election, Gianforte's winning margin was substantially less than expected. During his Congressional victory speech, the candidate apologized for his actions and later accepted a plea bargain to a misdemeanor. In the years since, Trump has continued to praise Gianforte for the incident though and Gianforte himself no longer seems too remorseful. In 2018, the Congressman was elected to a full term in a statewide election, but by only five points.

Not wanting to make a lengthy career on Capitol Hill, Gianforte ran again for Governor in 2020. He took 53 percent in a three way Republican primary and then won the open general election by about 12 points over the sitting Lt. Governor. Once again though, Gianforte ran a few points behind Trump in the state, whose own winning margin was down from four years earlier. In Montana, Gubernatorial candidates pick their running-mate before the primary. In May of 2020, Gianforte selected attorney, small businesswoman, and law professor Kristen Juras to run with him, Now, as incumbents, the team is running again.

In the June primary, the Governor's ticket easily won with three quarters of the vote against State Representative Tanner Smith and his running-mate. He had stated that Gianforte was not governing as a true conservative and took particular issue with issues related to legalized marijuana sales. The Republican primary voters were apparently not too concerned though. At the same time, Democrats nominated a candidate with 71 percent, albeit in a smaller turnout. Their nominee is Ryan Busse, a former gun manufacturing executive turned anti-gun activist. He defeated a ticket led by attorney Jim Hunt, who had last lost a 2008 Congressional primary Running with Busse is Raph Graybill, who was chief legal counsel to the state's last Democrat Governor and is just 35 years old. In his own right, Graybill lost by a wide margin as his party's 2020 nominee for Attorney General.

The bald and bearded Busse may look the part of a Montana political figure, but he has quite an uphill battle in the state, even as Gianforte is not universally loved. The issue of guns and the Democrats extreme turnaround on the issue are sure to be a major point of focus in the race, but Republicans are probably feeling confident that Montanans like their guns and will reward the most pro-gun candidate. They are likely correct in that regard. This race is very much the undercard for the pivotal U.S. Senate election.

Governor races predicted thus far:

1 D (1 Likely)

3 R (2 Likely, 1 Leans)

Total with predicted thus far:

21 Democrats (1 Likely, 20 Holdover)

22 Republicans (2 Likely, 1 Leans, 19 Holdover)