Missouri Governor- Race of the Day

 Missouri Governor

83 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Less than a generation ago, Missouri was one of the top battleground states in the nation, as Democrats and Republicans fought fiercely in races for President, U.S. Senate, and Governor. Nowadays though, the Show Me State has been showing as quite red politically.and Republicans will be looking to win their four straight Gubernatorial election.

The race was competitive eight years ago when Republican outsider Eric Greitens won by five points, in a victory perhaps larger than expected. The political star of Greitens took a huge hit though amid a flurry of allegations of personal and political wrongdoing. Less than halfway through his term, he resigned under pressure and was replaced by the Republican Lt. Governor Mike Parson, a position which is elected separately in the state. The more low-key but still very conservative Parson had little difficulty winning a full term in 2020, but was ineligible to seek another term this year. That set up another extremely competitive Republican primary for Governor, that was decided just over a week ago. Very close multi-candidate Republican primaries for top offices have become a recent feature in the state. The winner of the race would have a huge leg-up for the general election.

Nine Republicans ran, but there were three major contenders, who all looked like they could have a potential  chance of pulling off the primary victory. This did not include one candidate who was an "honorary" member of the KKK, and whom the state party tried to distance itself from. Donald Trump took the step of endorsing all three leading Republican candidates shortly before the primary,which was in effect the same as not issuing an endorsement. However, this way, Trump would be able to declare another victory regardless of how things shook out.

 

While it appeared he might have had the closing momentum, Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe won the primary with 39 percent of the vote, seven points ahead of his closest competitor. A former State Senate Majority Leader, Kehoe grew up in under tough circumstances in the St. Louis area. He became wealthy as an auto dealer before entering politics and this race, Kehoe seemed to be the preferred choice of a variety of business and agricultural groups.

 

The man Kehoe defeated for the nomination had a far more famous name. After two terms as Secretary of State, Jay Ashcroft attempted to follow the path of his father by being elected Governor. The older Ashcroft held statewide office in Missouri all through his son's childhood and teenage years. A couple years after completing two terms as Governor, John Ashcroft was elected to the U.S. Senate, where he became a favorite of religious conservatives and was talked about as a Presidential hopeful. After a reelection defeat under interesting circumstances in 2000,  he became United States Attorney General and was a controversial figure in that role. Jay Ashcroft became an attorney and engineer and lost a 2014 race for State Senate before being elected in 2016 to Secretary of State. He shares his father's socially conservative viewpoints but from what I had observed, appears to be utterly lacking in any sort of charisma. Several months back, the Gubernatorial candidate made some headlines when he said that as Secretary of State, he would take retribution against states that might disqualify Trump from their ballot, by keeping Joe Biden off of Missouri's. It did not appear he would have had the legal authority to do thing along those lines. Ashcroft also suggested he would not take office or step down as Governor if Missouri voters passed an abortion imitative he would feel unable to uphold as law.

Also running was State Senator Bill Eigel, who tried to run to the right of both of his conservative opponents. He tightly embraced Trump and rejected calls for "civility" in politics, while speaking about rounding up illegal immigrants in the state. Eigel finished third in the primary with 23 percent of the vote, a good ways back from both Kehoe and Ashcroft. Some Republicans perhaps gave some thought to the possibility that if he had somehow been nominated, Democrats might have had a real opening.

Assuming Republicans can now unite behind Kehoe, they should not have too much trouble in this race. The primary winner was the most electable among the Republicans. However, he now faces a somewhat credible opponent in Democrat Crystal Quade, the soon to be 39 year old House Minority Leader. With the backing of organized labor and what remains of the state party establishment, Quade took 50 percent against four opponents. Finishing in second place with 32 percent of the vote was businessman Mike Hamra, who runs a group that owns all sorts of restaurant franchises. Hamra ran as a political outsider and could potentially have had the chance to appeal more to Republican voters, but there did not seem to be a huge ideological difference between the two candidates, During the course of Hamra's Gubernatorial campaign, his brother passed away in June, and his father did as well, days before the primary.

Briefly, Democrat State Representative Sarah Unsicker attempted to also run for Governor. She had started out running for Attorney General in the state this cycle, but withdrew due to an association with a Holocaust denier who would attack Jewish candidates in that race, one in each party. She then said she would run for Governor and her party took steps to prevent her from doing so. Ultimately, Unsicker did not run as an Independent.and having been kicked aside by her party, is completing her final term in the legislature. Maybe Jill Stein can look at her for a running-mate possibility.

Conceivably, Democrats could have had a decent chance with a Hamra vs. Eigel race, or even Quade vs. Ashcroft might have been semi-interesting. It is too early into the general election to declare that Kehoe is all but safe, but this is more than easily his race to lose.

Governor races predicted thus far:

1 D (1 Likely)

2 R (1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Total with predicted thus far:

21 Democrats (1 Likely, 20 Holdover)

21 Republicans (1 Likely, 1 Leans, 19 Holdover)