Nevada U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Nevada U.S. Senate

76 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

Almost all eyes will be on Nevada this November when the Presidential election results roll in. The Senate race could be close also, although it appears at this point to be considerably less close than the one for President. For whatever reason, a chunk of Donald Trump voters seem to be telling pollsters they intend to stick with their first-term incumbent Democrat Senator.

In 2018, Jacky Rosen, a former computer programmer and Las Vegas area synagogue president, unseated a Republican U.S. Senator 50-45, in a race where support, or lack thereof for Donald Trump, proved problematic for the then incumbent. Just two years earlier, Rosen was recruited out of relative political obscurity by long-time state power broker Harry Reid to run for an open U.S. House seat. Rosen won that seat for her party and quickly was in place to move up to the Senate.

 

Rosen has mostly stuck to the party line in the Senate but has tried to portray herself as a more moderate Democrat. In running for a second term, she took nearly 92 percent in the June primary. Republicans have been looking forward to this election, as the party has been seen as making gains in the state, as shown by the defeat of the incumbent Democrat Governor in the 2022 midterms, a rare bright-spot for Republicans in that disappointing cycle.  A total of 12 candidates ran in the Republican primary, not counting the unique "None of These Candidates" option that Nevadans have. This year, four percent of Republicans and just under three percent of Democrats chose to vote that way. If that is re-visited in a very close general election, it could have a major impact on the final result and possiblly the entire Senate balance of power.

In the past, Republican Senate primaries have produced weak nominees. There was a fear this year that a Trump aligned candidate could win the nomination only to fail against Rosen. With that in mind, party leaders prevailed on Trump to endorse whom they saw as the potential strongest candidate, and that seemed to make a huge difference.

The Republican nominee is Sam Brown, who is both a member of the Cherokee Nation and apparently related to the Brown family which owns the Cincinnati Bengals. In 2008, as an Army Captain serving in Afghanistan, he was severely injured by an IED explosion and suffered substantial burns on his face and body. Brown had a long road to recovery and in the years since has had many surgeries that have helped alleviate his disfigurements although his burns are still apparent. In 2012, he appeared in a photo spread in GQ magazine under the title "Burning Man."  After his military service, Brown founded a medical supply business related to veterans and has been a motivational speaker. His first political foray came in 2014 when he lost a Republican primary for a State House seat in Texas. In 2022, he ran for the U.S. Senate in Nevada and his life story and personal appeal won him much grassroots support and even the state party endorsement. However, many political leaders and Donald Trump endorsed a much better known political name who won that primary 56-34. In November though, Republican nominee Adam Laxalt lost the Senate election by just about one point. Some believed that Brown, with less political baggage, could have won that election.

This time, Trump endorsed Brown and the second time Senate candidate took 60 percent of the primary vote. Two other candidates who ran trying to appeal to MAGA finished second and third, with a collection of other candidates, including a pre-Trump vintage Republican type who had once been the State Assembly Minority Leader finished way back. National Republicans were pleased though that Brown would be put forward instead of the second place finisher Jeffrey Ross Gunter, a doctor, and somewhat recent resident of Nevada, who had served as Trump's Ambassador to Iceland. He took 15 percent. The third place finisher, who took less than seven percent was especially controversial. Former State Assemblyman Jim Marchant was an election denier who had lost a competitive 2020 Congressional race and then even more narrowly as his party's 2022 nominee for Secretary of State. It is somewhat remarkable that Marchant faded as badly as he did as a Senate candidate this year. However, he had recently started espousing anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, including those involving the assassinations of Abraham Lincoln and John Kennedy.

Sam Brown is an intriguing Senate candidate but polls have showed him consistently behind Jacky Rosen. He has tried to protect himself politically on the sensitive abortion issue by saying he supports it remaining legal in Nevada. Brown's wife, also an Army veteran, spoke recently about having had an abortion before she met her husband. At the same time though, Brown appears to be in line with Trump on other issues, including aid to Ukraine and there is a sense that he might hold other views that could be painted as out of the mainstream.

In this speech accepting the Republican Presidential nomination, Trump, who did a lot of ad-libbing the night, spoke glowingly about Brown as a Senate candidate and praised his heroism. There is video though from earlier in the evening of Brown standing with a bunch of other Senate nominee in the Trump box. Trump shook hands with all of them except for Brown. We probably will never know if that was simply an oversight, but much has been said and written about Trump not liking to be around disabled veterans because of the way it "looks for him."  Needless to say, Brown should be honored by all as a Purple Heart recipient and Bronze Star winner. It should also not be ignored that Trump thinks being badly injured and winning awards for military service is not as good as those for civilians who receive honors and are healthier and more beautiful.

 

This is such a nationalized political environment, that I find it hard to believe that the result in this race will be dramatically different from the Nevada Presidential election. Brown should not be counted out. If there is movement towards Republicans, he will have a chance of pulling off an upset. However, it seems like momentum on the Presidential level is moving away from Trump in Nevada and elsewhere and towards Kamala Harris and revitalized Democrats in the post Joe Biden portion of this campaign. The "None of These Candidates" option is also an important wrinkle to keep in mind when doing handicapping. I would be surprised if the final margin turns out being double digits.  Very recently though, some polls show Rosen has taken a clear lead over Brown. It looks like she may just be a better fit politically for the state.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

11 D  (6 Safe, 1 Likely,  3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 7 R   (3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

39 Democrats (28 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

45 Republicans (38 Holdover, 3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)