Nebraska U.S.Senate B- Race of the Day

Nebraska U.S. Senate B

77 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Yesterday, we looked at the regular election in Nebraska for the seat held by the senior Senator. The state is also holding a special election this year, in which the winner will again face the voters in two years. It seems pretty certain that the Republican will not have too much to worry about in regards to this seat in either 2024 or 2026.

Shortly before the 2022 elections, Republican Senator Ben Sasse, serving in his second term, announced he would be leaving that office to become the new President of the University of Florida. Sasse had a background as a smaller university President in Nebraska before running for office and was once seen as a rising star in the Republican Party. During his time in the Senate, Sasse had a complicated relationship with Donald Trump and at times would express disapproval, only to have Trump fire back. At various times, Sasse mused that he might not seek a second term, or that he may leave the Republican Party altogether, or perhaps even run for President himself. Around the time he decided to seek a second term in the Senate as a Republican, he stopped speaking out against Trump. After that 2020 election, and after the events of January 6, 2021, Sasse was among a handful of Republican Senators who voted to impeach Trump. Clearly, his future in politics as a Republican seemed cloudier so he found a new opportunity in the Sunshine State. Not long ago, Sasse surprised many by stepping down from the University Presidency, citing his wife's health challenges and the need to be around more for his family. Questions have since been raised about his office's spending in that position and possible related unethical behavior. If Sasse ever wants to run for office again, he may have to answer some serious questions.

In any event, by the time Sasse announced his impeding resignation, it was clear that outgoing Republican Governor Pete Ricketts wanted the seat. The businessman had once run for the Senate in 2006 and lost bigly to a popular Democrat, back when those still existed in Nebraska. Years later, he used his family fortune and connections to be elected Governor in 2014. During his first term, he saw the Chicago Cubs, the team owned by his family, win the 2016 World Series. The Cubs are basically run by Ricketts more politically neutral brother, although he has siblings, who also have ownership interests in my favorite team that range from a brother who is top Trump Republican fundraiser, to a sister who is a prominent gay activist and a top fundraiser for Democrats. Ricketts' father, who founded TD Ameritrade, was once the head of an anti-Trump Republican SuperPAC, but like many others, later jumped on board with Trump.

Pete Ricketts sometimes feuded with his legislature, including Republicans, (though Nebraska Senators are formally non-partisan), but easily won a second term. Being term-limited he was seen as someone with his eye on the Senate. Many Nebraska Governors have gone on to become U.S. Senators. With an opening, he could not realistically appoint himself to the seat, but had to wait until Republican Jim Pillen won the Governorship in 2022 as expected. After that, Ricketts successor as Governor surprised absolutely nobody by appointing his predecessor to the Senate.

Some in the party have viewed Ricketts as not being strongly enough to the right or dismiss his background as a wealthy urban business executive (perhaps with ties to Chicago.) Incumbency was clearly an advantage though as Rickets romped to a 79 percent to 15 percent May primary win against realtor and former Air Force Colonel John Glen Weaver. This is despite the fact that the Nebraska Republican Party went rogue in that primary and endorsed all sorts of challengers to incumbents,and this included supporting Weaver over Ricketts.

Unlike the Cornhusker State's other Senate contest, Democrats are fielding a candidate here, although their nominee will probably fare worse than the Independent running in the other race. The sole Democrat to file was Preston Love Jr.., an African-American college professor in his early 80s, who once was an official in the 1984 Presidential campaign of Jesse Jackson. Love had gone on to do non-profit work in Omaha, and in 2020, with support from the party, ran as a write-in candidate for U.S.Senate against incumbent Sasse, after the party broke ties with its official nominee, over allegations of personal misconduct. In that race, Love took six percent of the vote as a write-in, still well behind the amount received by the disowned Democrat nominee.

This year, with a place on the ballot, Love will get well above six percent, but seems very much underfunded and probably too liberal to defeat Senator Ricketts. He will fare best in the Omaha area, which will have a very tight U.S. House race, as well as a battle for that Congressional District's potentially crucial one electoral vote, but Ricketts will roll up huge margins in the other parts of the state.

Hopefully, the Chicago Cubs can do what they did after Ricketts won his first term as Governor, early on in his first elected term as a U.S. Senator, and get him another World Series ring.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

10 D  (6 Safe, 1 Likely,  2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 7 R   (3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

38 Democrats (28 Holdover, 6 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

45 Republicans (38 Holdover, 3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)