New Mexico U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

New Mexico U.S. Senate

70 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

There does not seem to have been much attention paid to the Senate race in New Mexico this year. The Democrat incumbent seems likely to win a third term in what was once a political battleground state that has trended blue more recently. His opponent though has a strong political pedigree.

Martin Heinrich was first elected to the Senate in 2012, after previously serving four years in the U.S. House. Still in his early 50s, Heinrich might be seen as someone who could have national ambitions, but he has not been a flashy presence on Capitol Hill and seems content to go about having a lengthy career in the Senate. In 2018, he received 54 percent in a three way race, that included 15 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson, a one-time Republican Governor of New Mexico, turned 2016 third party Presidential nominee.

Neither party had a contested Senate primary this year, and it does not appear there will be any Independent or third party candidates on the November ballot. Republicans seem relatively pleased with their nominee in a state that no longer has much of a political bench for their party. Running against Heinrich is Nella Domenici, a former hedgefund chief financial officer. Her name will be best known though as the daughter of the late Pete Domenici, who served 36 years as a Republican Senator from New Mexico and was a political institution in the state. It also happens that Domenici had a son, Adam Laxalt, who is the half-brother of Nella, that she likely did not know about until recent years. Laxalt was the product of an extramarital affair Senator Domenici had with the daughter of his Nevada colleague and friend Paul Laxalt. Adam Laxalt, who became Attorney General of Nevada, recently lost races in that state for both Governor and U.S. Senate. So, there will not be any chance of two siblings serving together.

Before Domenici jumped in this race, Manny Gonzalez, the former Bernalillo County Sheriff had announced his Senate candidacy as a Republican, despite having served in office as a Democrat. Not long ago, Gonzalez had been implicated, but not charged in a scheme involving machine guns. He would be disqualified from the primary ballot by not having enough signatures, ceding the field to Domenici. An Hispanic former Democrat law enforcement official from the state's largest county might have sounded like an appearing Republican candidate, but there may have been other problems with his candidacy.

Before Joe Biden jumped out of the Presidential race, there was reason to believe that New Mexico would be surprisingly close at the Presidential level and that such a thing could have an effect on the Senate race also. Heinrich would eventually become part of a handful of U.S. Senators to openly call on the President of his own party to step aside. Once that happened, it seems like Democrats are in better shape across the state.

Domenici will push on the Republican themes of border security and inflation in this campaign and polls show she may possibly be close to being within single digits of the incumbent. Making up the rest of the difference will be very difficult though.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

13 D  (6 Safe, 3 Likely,  3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 7 R   (3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

41 Democrats (28 Holdover, 6 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

45 Republicans (38 Holdover, 3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)